Zach Bass

Tech Won't Lead Markets Out of Bearish Pattern

You are delusional A.S. Never made such a promise. Besides, I would love it if AAPL gets above 100, I just think it's gonna be tough, and if it does, it will be short-lived in 2009. Things could get better by years end, but they'll get much worse before they get better.

On Feb 05 02:43 PM A.S. wrote:

> Zach, please stick to your promise and DISAPPEAR for good once AAPL
> passes 100, since u predicted it will NOT trade over 100 in 2009...so
> in the next few days, you'll be lost in the wilderness !!

Trade Apple Like a Fool

You assertion that TA relies on past events is completely off mark. TA uses patterns and various other tools to determine mob behavior. The measurement of this behavior has nothing to do with the types of behavior, or what influenced it, or what specific events happened. TA is simply an objective read on the limits to which that behavior was exerted.

What you are describing is like saying that I can no longer measure that line with a ruler, because the line has been made with something not previously seen. Well, I don't care what made the line, I can still use the ruler to measure it.


On Jan 12 12:43 PM David Forjan wrote:

> Mr. Bass,
>
> You may be right with your opinion, but your rationale is flawed.
> It's been flawed for some time now. Time to rethink.
>
> Our current economic situation is so different than anything seen
> in the last 40 years, that technical analysis is not a viable tool.
> Technical analysis relies on interpreting current market trends in
> light of how past trends occurred and how they were reacted to.
> In other words, technical analysis interprets today in relation to
> history.

Little Optimism for 2009 Markets

I think it's very likely that AAPL will beat their outlook, perhaps even analysts consensus, but only by a slim margin. You have to expect that Apple is not going to paint a rosy outlook, in fact they'll be quite guarded. So I expect that with their less than optimistic guidance, the market will slam the stock. When that happens, it will present an excellent short term opportunity to catch the stock at the base of a counter rally. But that's it, I would take that quick gain and exit.

Of course this prediction is largely predicated upon the market maintaining support above the November lows. If we fall below support and are heading for the lows at the time of Apple earnings, I would steer clear any equity positions.


On Dec 29 10:20 AM TimboM wrote:

> Hi Zach - I believe that your premise is currently that fundamentals
> don't matter (or at least matter very little) but I would like you
> to comment on the earnings forecast for AAPL for this quarter which
> comprises about 35% of their annual sales and profit.
>
> AAPL itself released guidance that was both low and in a wide range:
> $1.06 to $1.35. Analysts have a consensus of $1.40. Last year in
> this quarter they were at $1.76.
>
> Any comments on what it may be, and perhaps what effect it may have?
>
>
> Thanks.

S&P 500 and Apple Playing Out Bearish Patterns

@Mr Awesome, you're an idiot. I have no power to sway the markets, nor does any analyst on Seeking Alpha. I provide objective analysis. The problem is that you're a perma-bull and think any negative analysis of AAPL is suspicious.

Besides, I have no position with Apple. I have taken occasional short positions against the market, as anyone would when a market is being controlled by bearish forces.

More Proof the Bear Rally Is Over

The problem of Apple penetrating corporate America is not one of technology, because we all know that Apple builds technically superior products to the likes of Dell and Microsoft. The problem is the corporate buyer. Apple simply does not market or sell to the corporate buyer, who is far more concerned with expense than cost.

Apple markets to the individual. The Mac needs a Trojan horse to bring it into the enterprise, much like execs did with the iPhone, helped by Apple providing minimal enterprise support. Once you get past the buyers, then you need to get past the IT guys who don't want to support another platform.

I think if Apple concentrates more on small to medium sized businesses, it will have far more success, and it's a bigger market to boot.


On Dec 19 08:42 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> ... its fundamental design is much more robust and
> secure than Windows, protecting users (for the most part) from losses
> and headaches due to malware, and from overhead due to malware-protection
> software. An article by John Markoff in the NYT a couple of weeks
> ago estimated the annual direct and indirect losses from such malware
> at $100 billion worldwide, and mentioned that the Mac has escaped
> so far. A large segment of the computer user population is wising
> up to that fact -- that's the strong foundation of Apple's franchise.
> It's not just cool-appeal or slickness. That's where conventional
> analysts like Huberty go wrong.

Should Apple Investors Feel Good About Yesterday's Rally?

It's unfortunate that the markets are what they are. I would much rather report on bullish news. One thing is for certain, I will not report something that I don't believe is so. And I've been right about this bull market from its inception.


On Nov 25 10:59 AM sfhc21 wrote:

> You can always tell a Zach Bass article by it's title...Doom and
> Gloom boys. Doom and Gloom. Even a monkey is right 50% of the time.
>
>
> But Zach is right. Cash is king until sanity returns to the market.
> It may take awhile. Maybe January earnings will be that turning point,
> once "investors" realize that Apple blew out expectations once again.......nah.

Should Apple Investors Feel Good About Yesterday's Rally?

We are currently at an important juncture, testing the resistance at the top of the current diagonal in the S&P and AAPL. There will likely be selling from mid day on, now it remains to be seen if the Bulls have the gusto to buy up that selling, or if the Bears can successfully bring the market down.

So, I would say taking long positions right now would not be prudent. Wait and see what transpires at this important pivot point. See the following link: tinyurl.com/65jybh

That link is one of my daily email alerts, from this morning. I send out several a day. If you are interested, then sign-up here. It's completely free!

www.zacharybass.com/ab...

On Nov 25 09:21 AM Buy AALP wrote:

> I,m look at buying Apple and my question is should I wait till it
> go's to 85 or NOW.

Apple Falls Flat as Market Rebounds - Is There Really Investor Confidence?

Take a chill pill, I was only kidding. Look at the exchange above.


On Nov 24 02:14 PM bobsaf wrote:

> Zack:
> Whether or not you have a hidden agenda in your AAPL views, I had
> more respect for you before your slide into the kind of slurs that
> don't belong here,specifically in your reply to ND:
> "How about Apple Lemming or Mac Psycho? Would that work better for
> you, you PC piece of crap!"

Apple Falls Flat as Market Rebounds - Is There Really Investor Confidence?

I was just kidding around too. And yes, PC was meant to be Politically Correct. I like iPsycho!


On Nov 24 01:32 PM ND wrote:

> "Mac Psycho?" Now THAT has a nice ring. Or maybe iPsycho. BTW: I
> was being facecious (maybe I should start using a "smiley face")
> Hope PC in your post means "politically correct." 'Cause I'm a Mac.

Apple Falls Flat as Market Rebounds - Is There Really Investor Confidence?

I am simply repeating a widely used term in connection with Apple. Fan obviously refers to Fanatic, and Fanatic Boy simply doesn't roll off the tongue as nicely. I refer to myself as a fanboy, and I'm not gay.

How about Apple Lemming or Mac Psycho? Would that work better for you, you PC piece of crap!


On Nov 24 12:40 PM ND wrote:

> I don't like the term "fanboy." It sounds like a gay slur. Well,
> I like Apple, AND I like women. Do backers of other stocks get called
> names like this? Just wondering.

Apple Falls Flat as Market Rebounds - Is There Really Investor Confidence?

Because Brewer, I don't give a damn about Microsoft! I'm an Apple guy. And I'm not talking the company down, on the contrary, you'll not find any articles where I say the company is not great. What I'm saying in my market analysis is, that it doesn't matter how great Apple is in this environment, investors need to get their heads out of the fan-boy cloud and look at the reality square in the face. This market is going to bring good and bad down with it, whether you like it or not.


On Nov 24 10:16 AM brewer wrote:

> Zach, at first you tried to make it sound like you were trying to
> 'save' investors when you first started 'warning' about the economy
> and about Apple (while professing to be a fan of the company).
>
>
> Now you don't seem to bother with that, you just insist that it must
> go lower. Why?

Can You See Apple Under $60?

taojaxx, I'm short because we're in the worst economic disaster in our history as a nation and the world. We're crashing man! Why would I expect anything else but to keep crashing until there's a reason not to crash? But even in a crash there are minor corrections on the way down. That's what is happening today (Monday Nov 24). But it won't last, because nothing has changed on the economic front to suggest an end to this disaster.


On Nov 24 12:26 AM taojaxx wrote:

> I e mailed that article to myself to reflect on it when we get out
> of this mess.
> Typical projection of the last 5 days in the coming 5 years. Plus,
> talking his own book... Remember the key question: are you short
> because you're bearish, or are you bearish because you're short?

Can You See Apple Under $60?

@mbbcat, you mistakingly diminish the value of Apple's products. They are not over-priced, nor are they toys. There are many industries that rely on Macs as serious tools, that are unmatched in their utility. And they are far from toys. My background is in systems architecture (I was a former Chief Architect with Sun Micro), and I can tell you that Macs running OS X are far more powerful and useful, carrying much more value, than ANY windows or Linux machine.

And besides the fact that Macs have value and utility, they are beautiful to boot!

Can You See Apple Under $60?

@Camden "Zach, this implies the determining factor of a depression is the valuation of the stock market. Is that really what you mean?"

What I'm saying is that investors peg certain levels in the market, the way we draw lines in the sand. And there are no lines in the sand between 775 and 666. And so long as there's nothing underneath to prop the market up, and uncertainty has pushed volatility and fear to a crescendo, then stock price has nowhere to go other than down.

As stocks go down, so does wealth. As wealth deteriorates investment ceases and jobs are lost. As jobs are lost, money no longer flows, with no sales, things deflate.

Apple Investors: The Bottom's Not In - Just Yet

The reason I threw AAPL in here is that this is a reprint of a post from my blog www.zacharybass.com where I post about investing in Apple, with a strong focus on market and sector analysis. Sometimes my blogs are focused completely on Apple, sometimes focused completely on the market. And always focused on helping the Apple investor out of the Wilderness ;-)