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Zach Tripp

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  • Invest Using Stocks' Price to Free Cash Flow [View article]
    First of all, excellent article, thank you Mycroft. Second of all, love the DJIA backtest. So simple. Third, I came across this article after doing research on ROIC. Most calculations is EBITA (which I do not like) and wanted to see if anyone used FCF (which I prefer). My best investment have been companies with high FCF Yield.
    Apr 23 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    Nice article. I am curious if each example of "profit" is actually referring to the same number on the income (or cash flow) statement. When looking at individual companies, Profit as a percentage of global GDP may not be as much value as profit as a percent of revenue.

    In this article I show that the S&P500 had the highest EPS margin to revenue since 2001 and a relative high TTM P/E ratio.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 9 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orbit International Is Attractive And At A Key Inflection Point [View article]
    tough day today but for a long-term holder, this may be a nice entry point. Net Current Asset Per Share is $3.17 (current assets - total liabilities).
    Mar 6 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 7-Year Cycle That Will Crush Uninformed Investors, Again [View article]
    Craig- interesting article but I was hoping for a little more meat on the bones if you will. No mention of the Federal Reserve policies, P/E ratios, Rev. Growth, Corporate cash stock piles, current status of the macro business cycle, ratio of stock dividend yields to treasury yield, ratio of stock earnings to treasury yields, etc.

    In those 7 year periods, what changed that caused investors to sell (that is what drives down markets). Are those conditions present now?

    Isn't the Presidential Cycle much more of a powerful indicator? Think about it, 2015 just before an Presidential election. The QE should be complete and the federal could be raising rates (they have said nothing until 2015 - correct?). The minimum wage hike will be kicking in just before the election to help secure votes (guess on my part). Obamacare will be in full swing and the full financial impact is going to all of the news.

    I predict the next recession will start the end of 2015 and be in full force 2016 and the next POTUS will be blamed for it.

    Is my prediction any less persuasive than yours? If not, why not?
    Feb 20 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VTI Is A Buy In 2014 [View article]
    In the future, I would recommend Vanguard's website.
    Feb 20 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VTI Is A Buy In 2014 [View article]
    Hi Mark, some corrections and maybe some additional information in regards to VTI.

    VTI tracks the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) US Total Market Index, not the MSCI U.S. Broad Market Index.

    The (CRSP) US Total Market Index invests in the top 98% of their eligible equity market. As of today, that means, companies with a market cap greater than $730.4-million.

    85.8% of the holdings are in "large-cap" and "Mega-Cap" companies, which means market cap above $5-billion. For reference, if I recall, the smallest company in the S&P 500 is around $3.3-Billion.

    (CRSP) US Total Market Index is currently weighted heavy towards financials.

    Other CRSP specific information related to VTI (US Total Market Index):

    Emphasis on cost efficiency
    Quarterly reconstitution
    Float-adjusted market cap
    Feb 20 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Performance Review: 2013-Q4 [View article]
    Thank you for sharing your results. I think quarterly updates of actual portfolios is much more benefit to investors that fictional portfolios or backtesting.
    Jan 25 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do I Know When To Sell A Stock? [View article]
    Another excellent article, Chuck. Like many long-term investors in dividend-paying companies, I plan on holding the company for a long period of time, benefiting from the compounding of dividends. Selling is more difficult than buying, especially when you hold strong, international companies with long-term track records.

    As other commenters (and I have only skimmed all of them) mentioned, a lot of these companies have had periods of overvaluation followed by a reverse to the mean and still produced impressive returns over the long term (decades). This is a very wordy way of saying that this is a very tough subject to wrap head around, given the investment thesis of my dividend portfolio.

    Here is my example. I started my position in CAT during the great recession. I added to my position along the way and, with reinvested dividends, increased my cost per share a good amount. The fall from $115 to $80 wiped out a good portion of my paper profits. I can’t help to think if I taken some profits, I could have deployed that money to another undervalued dividend company.

    I have held HD for a long time and only recently have had a decent paper profit. I am watching HD like a hawk and at some time I am going to pull the trigger and only sell my cost basis, leaving the “house’s money” on the table. That way, I still have a position in HD I can hold forever and I can put the cost basis into another company that is not so overvalued (less risk of a negative reverse to the mean).

    Long: HD, CAT
    Jan 25 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tweaking A Value Approach To Micro-Cap Stocks [View article]
    Thank you for the article Charles. I originally read this article in the magazine but this forum gives me an opportunity to comment.

    I am surprised that there is not a recommendation lower the minimum market cap. a little (as opposed to allowing negative earnings). Also, if an investor has less capital, can they have a lower liquidity requirement? What is the AAII liquidity requirement and how is it calculated.

    I would be curious to your thoughts on lower mrkt cap. and lower liquidity (if an investor has less capital to deploy).

    -lifetime member
    Jan 25 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Diversified ETF Portfolio Review: Lesson In Poor Diversification; 2014 Thesis [View article]
    Thank you for reading raulnj48!
    Jan 20 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Risk Profiles: Part 6 - Interest Rate Sensitivity [View article]
    Hi Skyraider- I am sure a lot of work into the thesis paper and would not feel comfortable summarizing the body of work here in the comments section of someone else's article.

    I will say it is an interesting paper because it separates BDC with and without SBA loans and breaks them down by size.
    Jan 12 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unique Application Of Moving Day Average To High Yield Bond ETFs [View article]
    Cliff- I missed that analysis of VWEHX on my first past through the article. Why did you not sure all of the data available in yahoo! Finance and go back to 1990? Just curious.

    Also, meant to ask. You use your look back periods based on vol., do you have an equation for the relationship between vol. and look back period?
    Jan 12 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Low-Cost ETF Outperforms The S&P 500 And The Dow [View article]
    Nice article David and I agree with your thesis. I am a big fan of VTI and hold both the ETF and the mutual fund version. If you have $10k, the Admiral class of the mutual fund (VTSAX) has an expense ratio of 0.05%, same as the ETF.

    The over performance is due to the exposure to small- and mid-cap stocks, which over a long period of time, out-perform large-cap (S&P 500).

    Lawrence's suggestion limits large-cap exposure by focusing only on small and mid stocks.

    An interesting approach, if you can find these in a commission-free brokerage is put 1/3 in VOO (S&P 500), 1/3 in VO (S&P 400 - mid-cap) and 1/3 in VB (S&P 600 small cap).

    You still get the same stocks as VTI but you have a higher weighting in small and mid-cap stocks. just a thought. (NOTE: you will be paying higher exp. ratio such you will have 3 funds).
    Jan 12 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Diversified ETF Portfolio Review: Lesson In Poor Diversification; 2014 Thesis [View article]
    Thanks galicianova, looks like an interesting CEF.
    Jan 12 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Diversified ETF Portfolio Review: Lesson In Poor Diversification; 2014 Thesis [View article]
    That is a very valid point galicianova and should be considered. If an investor requires more volume, an ETF that tracks S&P's "Pure Value" may be a better choice.

    By the way, I did verify that the S&P's "Value" index in weighted by mrkt cap. and their "pure value" is weighted by "score of value". Or, as S&P puts it, "Style attractiveness weighted.."
    Jan 12 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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