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Zach Tripp  

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  • The Federal Budget Outlook And Implications For The S&P 500 [View article]
    Lance, thank you for the nicely laid out article. I wish more person (media) would explore the federal budget.
    Mar 1, 2015. 08:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Top Balanced Mutual Funds To Offset Volatility [View article]
    I am a fan of Zack's but they have several of these type of articles which are of a little value. I would prefer to read why they are rated 5-stars and what makes them better than other funds....
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: Investment With The Potential For 9% Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Finished my position in $MAT. Showing rel. strength to S&P500. Final cost per share just under $28/share. Time to wait.
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amcon Distribution: Playing The Long Game To Value Creation [View article]
    Nice article Alpha Gen Capital, I actually have a DIT article half penned but have not finished it due to having to spend my evening’s snow blowing.

    Couple comments, I am long DIT and have been a year or so now. I keep up to date on the financials on a quarter basis. I agree with your investment thesis and is very similar to the original thesis I used to make my investment.

    Items to note though:

    1.) About 18% of the book value is intangibles. Here are my calculations from the quarter-over-quarter growth of Tangible Book Value Per Share:

    6/30/2013: 3.8%
    9/30/2013: 3.5%
    12/31/2013: 0.96%
    3/1/2014: (3.85%)
    6/30/2014: 2.15%
    9/30/2014: 3.3%
    12/31/2014: 5.50%

    2.) DIT has done a good job of keeping the share count fairly stable in recent years.

    3.) The dividend is safe, ranging between 5% - 20% of free cash flow.

    4.) I prefer using FCF over EBITDA since interest and taxes are real expenses of a company. The free cash flow margin (TTM FCF / TTM Revenue) has been between 0.2% to 0.8%.

    5.) Net Income for TTM Dec-2014 was down -8% from TTM Dec-2013, but FCF for TTM-2014 was up 92% from TTM Dec-2013. For TTM Dec-2013 FCF was 0.47% of revenue and for TTM Dec-2014 FCF was 0.88% of revenue.

    6.) The float is only 55% of the shares outstanding and 42% of share outstanding are held by insiders (according to Yahoo! Finance).

    7.) Average trading volume (3 month) is 1,500 shares. If an investor wants to limit their exposure to 25% of daily volume (to ensure some liquidity), that limits dollar value investment to $30k.

    When I found this company over a year ago, I thought I found a real gem. I have grown to realize that the current management is excellent and focusing on long-term growth. But, my question (and concern) is that with limited float and the limited trading volume, is DIT stuck in the 0.8-1.0 P/B range? Who is going to provide the buying power to move the shares?

    Long DIT
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street's Calling The Sheep: Buy The Dip Now, Join The Slaughter Later [View article]
    It would be interesting to see an equal-weight S&P 500 NCAV per share over time. That would make an great PhD paper for someone.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street's Calling The Sheep: Buy The Dip Now, Join The Slaughter Later [View article]
    Getting off topic here, but, I believe the tax cuts did work to fuel the economy along with Reagan's version of a stimulus package, that being military spending. Yes, under Reagan the Federal spending did increase, but it increased by producing hard assets (Stealth Fighters and Space Shuttle missions) and R&D (Star Wars).
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street's Calling The Sheep: Buy The Dip Now, Join The Slaughter Later [View article]
    Mr. Stockman- nice article, thank you.

    Couple points I would like to make.

    In regards to the S&P 500, the CY2014 Sales per Share grew 3.5% over CY2013. CY2013 grew 3.5% over CY2012.

    CY2014 EPS on the other hand grew 12.3% over CY2013 (for reference Cy2013 grew 9% over CY2012).

    Point being, there was no multiple expansion. The TTM P/E at the end of the year for CY2014 was 19.4 and 19.3 in CY2013.

    I have the data in this article (at the bottom): http://seekingalpha.co...

    The EPS growth fast outpacing SPS growth in interesting. I would imagine at some point SPS and EPS have to revert to the mean.

    I agree with issues with debt - we both understand what too much debt can do.

    Speaking of debt, I would imagine when interest rates start to raise, customers will not be able to continue the sub-prime auto loans (since interests will be too high to carryover the principal on the previous unpaid car) and auto sales will drop like a rock.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Diversified ETF Portfolio: Annual Performance, Replacing BOND With TLT And 2015 Estimates [View article]
    Thank you Hardog-
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Nest Egg: Use Low Volatility Strategies In Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    rali- I encourage you to try to figure it out. The knowledge you gain in doing so will be a huge benefit to you from now until you are 55. A couple hours with Excel and you can probably figure "your number" when you reach 55. The secret is figuring out what source of funds to use from 55-65 and 65 and beyond (due to limitation in ages for withdraws from retirement vehicles).

    This is not meant to be a wise a*s remark...
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Nest Egg: Use Low Volatility Strategies In Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Nice article Portfolio Management 101-

    Curious on your thoughts and/or comparison of:

    S&P 500® Low Volatility Index (measures performance of the 100 least volatile stocks in the S&P 500)

    vs.

    Russell 1000 Low Volatility Index (measures the performance of the (up to) 200 least volatile in the Russell 1000) - the ETF holds 77 issues. (LGLV)
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Car Industry Stock Should You Own? [View article]
    $HON does not look too bad in some of the charts.

    I like to stay companies that supplier the auto industry, like Microchip $MCHP.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: Investment With The Potential For 9% Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Waiting for conference call to decide when to invest the remaining 25% of my capital. Curious if this will be the "kitchen sink" quarter with lower exceptions from new CEO of if he will wait until 1st or 2nd quarter of next year.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: Investment With The Potential For 9% Long-Term Growth [View article]
    YES!
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Mattel Analyst Report [View article]
    Just checking at Lunch, which I had a limit an order for $25.77 :-)
    Jan 26, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could A Dividend Cut Be Looming For Mattel? [View article]
    Dave-

    "The Company announced today a first quarter cash dividend of $0.38 per share which is flat compared to the first quarter of 2014. The dividend will be payable on March 6, 2015 to stockholders of record on February 19, 2015."

    It is the responsible thing to do....I would of been more concerned with a dividend raise..
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
458 Comments
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