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Zach Tripp  

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  • Dave Ramsey's 12% Return Strategy Is Replicable [View article]
    Hello Brian, E.W. = Equal Weight (sorry).
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My S&P 500 Year-End Estimate Is -18% For 2015, Based On Profit Margin And P/E Ratio [View article]
    Bodhisattva- thanks for the comments. I agree with the low oil prices and low inflation, but, so far the EPS for S&P 500 is trending downward, which means we would need multiple expansion for positive gains for the year.

    I do not support selling (unless it is part of a portfolio strategy). Must buy-and-hold should indeed hold tight, I agree. The general purpose of the article was to show that 6-7% S&P 500 growth is mathematical challenging at this time.
    Aug 31, 2015. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My S&P 500 Year-End Estimate Is -18% For 2015, Based On Profit Margin And P/E Ratio [View article]
    Thank you for your comments xpan- they are all very valid.

    1) The market doesn't care about the trailing, the market always looks at forward.

    ZT: I agree in principal. BUT, trailing earnings are known and future earnings are estimates. The trend feels like it is changing based on recent trailing earnings.

    I like to use 17.x trailing earnings as a "reasonable" multiple because that would usually mean 14-16x future earnings depending on growth - unless we are in a high growth period.


    2) Q3 and Q4 and maybe 2016 need to be revised downward, mainly because those dinosaur energy companies never have their estimates up to date.

    ZT: This is why it is tough to evaluate the "value" (via P/E ratio) of the market using future earnings estimates.

    3) 2015 EPS will have negative growth, the first time in this entire cyclical bull. Just as the first time double-digit negative quarterly growth in Q2.

    4) One can think that technical traders are clueless, and the fundamental drives the prices. However, I can tell you, investors and traders must know the technical and timing these days.
    Aug 29, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My S&P 500 Year-End Estimate Is -18% For 2015, Based On Profit Margin And P/E Ratio [View article]
    I agree that next year's estimates seem a little overoptimistic. I have been a bull for a while now...but it is getting more difficult to justify this multiple (or multiple expansion) with declining EPS.
    Aug 29, 2015. 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My S&P 500 Year-End Estimate Is -18% For 2015, Based On Profit Margin And P/E Ratio [View article]
    Thank you for the comments RS055- I usually wait until S&P updates the full quarter because it is not always clear if they are reporting EPS reported in the quarter to date or reported plus estimate for unreported companies.

    Regardless, the trend appears to continue for declining EPS year-over-year. Q2 CY2014 was $27.14.
    Aug 29, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Attractive Fast-Growing Dividend Growth Stocks For High Total Return [View article]
    Another great article Chuck. I just added Apple and Gilead because they both came up in my Free Cash Flow screen this month for the first time.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why I'M Shying Away From Park-Ohio Holdings As An Investment [View article]
    Thank you for the analysis William.

    "..In 2014, Park-Ohio Holdings' operating income only exceeded interest expense by four times. The rule of thumb for safety lies at five times or more."

    If I state this another way, are you saying their interest expense is 20% of their operating income? And is this the net operating income (after interest expense is removed)?

    Besides the debt load, they result of the metrics looks positive, no?
    Jul 15, 2015. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do You Find Value Investment Ideas? [View article]
    In December I look at the worst performers in the S&P 500 in the hopes to find a dividend paying bluechip stock that everyone hated last year. If they are not going out of business, their turn around is usually impressive.

    Couple years back, it was Best Buy. I did not have the stomach to buy this brick and mortar. Wish I had.
    Jun 8, 2015. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expansion Opportunities Still Robust For This Successful Spin-Off [View article]
    David- HY came up in one of my screens and I like your analysis here. HY is worth additional investigation on my part.
    Jun 8, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave Ramsey's 12% Return Strategy Is Replicable [View article]
    disclosure: big Dave Ramsey fan, or more importantly, Dave Ramsey Message fan.

    I have two issues with his primary talking points. You hit on one of them. the 12% return is just to realistic over the long-term. The first debt I cleared was my car. I have started a car fund and bought two cars (previously loved) with cash.

    I knew 12% was not realistic but if someone else started a car fund and did not get 12%, i am sure they would be disappointed (granted, since 2009, 12% has been achievable). I wish he would suggest a index fund and ask people to expect a 9-10% per year over a 5 year period.

    I also wish he would recommend a fee-based financial adviser who provides a service and gets paid for that service without hidden fees or costs.

    BTW- my current "aggressive growth" portfolio is E.W. VOO, VXF, VB.
    Apr 26, 2015. 09:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Index Investing Is Not Inherently Socialistic [View article]
    @bryan- The S&P 500® Equal Weight Index (EWI) is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight - or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

    In an equal weight strategy you do lost the momentum effect. Over time, as a company's market cap. increases it has a larger and larger weight in the index. Apple is a perfect example.

    Also, in years in which the top 2 or 3 holdings of a cap. weight index do well, the EWI will not do as well so the index will be viewed as under performing "the market".

    Interesting article from Forbes: http://onforb.es/1HHCU7F

    BTW, I am a fan of EWI.
    Apr 19, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multi-Asset Strategies: A Primer [View article]
    Thank you for the article Larry.

    1.) I think one of the concern with team management of mutli-asset strategy is the team. We know over time active management usually under performs. Trying to guess what the proper macro themes to weight for the next year of so is impossible (IMHO).

    May I recommend any future articles use Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D's 7Twelve portfolio as a baseline for comparison?

    http://bit.ly/VJW4PC

    Excellent video: http://bit.ly/1wJCU4B

    2.) I also would be curious to see how a long-short fund could be included in a balanced portfolio. What are the correlation and beta characteristics when used as part of a larger portfolio?

    3.) Finally, can a BDC fund be used for "alternative". I think it is the closest a retail investor can get to private equity.
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Diversified ETF Portfolio: Annual Performance, Replacing BOND With TLT And 2015 Estimates [View article]
    Thanks Kenyatta-
    Mar 4, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Readers And Other Social Networks Are Bullish On Mattel Now [View article]
    Thanks for the mention Matt. Even though the primary focus of my article is estimating future earnings (reversion to the mean), the underlying point, which I think you are trying to capture here, is that if the company is strong enough and well enough established brands, the best time to buy is when the crowd is bearish.

    To be clear on my stake, I had a fixed amount of capital. I deployed 50% right around the time I wrote the article, then 25% and then the final 25% as it starting climbing off it's recent lows. I tried to dollar-cost average down. Has Mattel bottomed? No idea. Only time will tell.
    Mar 4, 2015. 08:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Budget Outlook And Implications For The S&P 500 [View article]
    Lance, thank you for the nicely laid out article. I wish more person (media) would explore the federal budget.
    Mar 1, 2015. 08:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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472 Comments
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