Today is traditionally known as “Black Friday” in the retail industry for a number of reasons. Traditionally, it was the day after Thanksgiving when many retailers actually crossed into the black, meaning they became profitable for the year. More commonly, retailers and shoppers refer to the day after Thanksgiving as “Black Friday” because of the madness at store locations where door busters, huge crowds, and short tempers make for a chaotic shopping experience.

This year we may face fewer shoppers than we have traditionally seen, due to lingering unemployment, an economy likely to still be in recession (or only recently beginning to show signs of recovery) and a level of wealth that is diminished from last year. However, we may still end up with a significantly “black” Friday as far as the markets are concerned.

Black Friday is coming – that dreaded day when consumers look for bargains, and retailers stay open from dawn (or pre-dawn) to dusk in a day that could make or break sales goals for the entire year. Investors are shopping for bargains as well, and many are looking for quality stocks on sale. The problem with buying something at a cheap price, is that unless you are careful, you could end up buying poor quality goods.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI) appears to be one of those “on sale” retail stocks. Investors can pick up shares for a 22% discount to the high posted in October, and if you look back to the stock’s all-time-high in 2006, investors are now able to buy at a 65% discount. Since the company sells high quality organic groceries at relatively wide profit margins, it is easy to understand why investors would be willing to pay a premium for the shares. But at the end of the day, Whole Foods is still simply a grocery store, and one with relatively stagnant growth at that.

Much attention has been given to gold lately, and rightfully so. The yellow metal is often an excellent proxy for inflation, and can be a strong indicator of investor sentiment. As investors become more risk averse, they look for “hard assets” that are likely to hold their value regardless of what happens to other asset classes. Unfortunately, there have been few places for risk-averse investors to park their money because the yield on traditional Treasury securities has been so low.

With gold making new highs, some investors (myself included) fear that a correction could quickly hurt some of the gains that gold traders have accumulated over the past few months. While I believe the secular trend for higher prices on hard assets will continue, volatility can knock a novice investor out of his position and eventually lead to losses despite this investor understanding the broad macro picture relatively well.

Sometimes it takes quite a bit of time for a relevant theme to mature. This year we have been bullish on fertilizer stocks such as Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT). The trade has been a bit lonely from June through mid-November as a weak economy has dampened demand for fertilizer products.

In January, the ZachStocks Growth Model took a significant position in IPI based on the assumption that the stock would begin to rally back towards its $32 IPO price as demand picked up for agricultural goods. On March 6, ZachStocks profiled Intrepid Potash, outlining three options which could help IPI better survive the economic uncertainty. These conservative strategies included shutting down mines, deferring expenditures and reducing operating levels in order to preserve cash during the challenging period. It now appears that the company has survived the worst of the downturn and is primed to benefit from any increase in agricultural demand. Intrepid finished the third quarter with $94.9 million in cash and no outstanding debt. The average price for selling a ton of potash declined to $458 per short ton compared to $623 last year, but this metric is relatively stable compared to the gyrating prices we were seeing last year. It’s encouraging to see that the company was able to turn a profit even with lower sales prices and adapt to the changing market.

What happens when investors expect perfection from the companies they are invested in? Chances are, those expectations will eventually be disappointed and investors can realize that the level of confidence is unrealistic. This appears to be the case with Salesforce.com (CRM) which traded 4% lower in early trading yesterday after announcing earnings Tuesday night.

Earnings per share grabbed most of the attention with the company posting a 100% increase and booking $0.16 per share for the quarter. The revenue figure was much less impressive with an increase of just 20%. Salesforce is at a critical juncture where revenue has grown to a place where it exceeds fixed costs, so small increases in the revenue base can have a much larger impact on earnings (on a percentage basis). The million dollar question is whether the company will be able to continue to keep costs low in order to leverage their revenue growth.

Shares of Wuxi PharmaTech Inc. (WX) are trading sharply higher after the company announced a strong third quarter. The company grew revenue by 10% over last year for a total of $70.0 million while adjusted earnings per share grew 32% to $0.24 per share. More importantly, the company is increasing its guidance for the year which is giving investors confidence in the long-term growth prospects for this innovative company.

Wuxi has built a strong reputation as an offshore research and laboratory service company and its clients include many of the major drug developers in the US. While the corporation is registered in the Cayman Islands, the majority of its operations are in China where it has built efficient laboratory and manufacturing facilities. During the third quarter, the company increased its headcount by 400 in order to ramp up for what is expected to be a strong growth season for the company.

Suntech Power Holdings (STP) traded sharply higher yesterday morning after the company announced that they would be opening a manufacturing facility in Arizona. The China-based solar panel maker has managed to remain profitable this year despite a difficult environment for solar manufacturers. The expansion move instilled investor confidence as positive news flow out of the solar sector has begun to spark buying.

Late last week, Yingli Green Energy (YGE) also saw its stock lift after announcing a positive quarter and raising estimates for the coming year. Management cited an expected improvement in profit margins for 2010 which is a significant change in trend for the company and for the industry as a whole.

Shares of AECOM Technology Corp. (ACM) are sharply higher this week after the infrastructure company issued the fourth quarter earnings announcement. Since the company operates with a September year end, 2009 is now in the books and it has been a decent year. For the fourth quarter, the company earned $0.48 per share which beats the street expectations which were at 46 cents. The earnings represent a 20% increase in profit versus last year, and for 2009 in total, the company grew earnings by 19%.

Part of the strength of this company is the fact that AECOM receives a significant portion of their revenue from overseas. With the dollar in a pronounced downtrend against most major currencies, this means that sales paid in Euros, Yen or other currencies are translated back to reflect higher dollar levels. So international trade is not only helpful as far as diversifying between regions, but has also been helpful from a foreign exchange perspective.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) was down sharply Thursday morning after announcing earnings Wednesday night. While the revenue and profit numbers for the fourth quarter (the company operates with a September year end) showed considerable growth, the stock (which is featured in the Retail Fail quarterly sector report) had been priced for perfection and it appears that investors now have some concern with the rosy outlook.

For the quarter, Green Mountain reported earnings per share of $0.34 which beat the 33 cent consensus estimate and represented an increase of 89% above last year’s level. Revenue was $222.2 million which also beat estimates and represents a 65% increase over last year. The third quarter was certainly a victory for the company, but looking forward the picture is a bit less optimistic.

One of the more successful IPOs over the past few weeks has come from Vitamin Shoppe Inc. (VSI). The stock was offered to investors at $17.00 and began trading on October 28. Underwriters included JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) / Merrill Lynch, and Barclays Plc. (BCS). The stock traded sharply higher out of the gate, closing its first day of trading at $17.95 which was good for a 5.6% initial return.

Since the IPO, investors have gained more confidence in the stock, pushing it as high as $21.39 during the day on Tuesday. That’s a potential 26% increase over the IPO price. It’s encouraging to see additional strength in the open market for a growth opportunity in its early days of trading. The positive movement points to liquidity which continues to show up in pockets of the market despite the economic uncertainty.

The company that allows you to “start learning a new language in less than 5 minutes” is having trouble communicating its message to Wall Street. During the third quarter Rosetta Stone Inc. (RST) booked revenue of $67.2 million and earnings of $0.29 per share. The result showed growth over the same quarter last year, but failed to revive investor confidence which had been falling for several months.

In August, ZachStocks discussed marketing expenses at Rosetta, explaining that the company was “purchasing sales” by exorbitant spending on sales and marketing in order to reach target revenue rates. While the targets were being hit, profit margins suffered and the stock took a significant hit when third quarter guidance was issued on August 17th. Last week when the company issued the actual third quarter report along with guidance for the fourth quarter, the stock once again gapped lower, this time violating the $18 IPO price.

Analysts ended up with a bit of egg on their face last week when Genoptix Inc. (GXDX) reported earnings. In August we took a look at the company, noting that new customers were leading to significant revenue growth. The trend has continued with Q3 revenue coming in at $33.5 million – good for a 47% increase over last year. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $0.34 which were blown away by the actual $0.53 per share figure.

Management didn’t stop with an excellent historical record. The company issued guidance for the fourth quarter with full year revenue expected at $180 million and EPS of $1.60. This guidance caused analysts to jump to adjust their models and several research desks had to increase their estimates for 2009 earnings. In addition, the company expects to see 2010 revenue grow to $235 million – good for a 30% annual increase.

What if I walked up to you this afternoon and asked you personally for a loan? I know, we probably haven’t met and already you are uncomfortable with my overt start to our conversation. But let’s run with this for a few minutes… Assuming you had the money to lend, and I appeared to be a legitimate borrower with every intention to repay the loan, you might actually consider the transaction. After all, loaning someone money can be a benefit to both the borrower and the lender – I would have the capital needed for whatever project I was undertaking, and you would negotiate a reasonable return for the capital you trust me with.

Treasury securities are not all that different. In fact, a good friend and colleague of mine likens treasury liabilities to Loans to Congress. Essentially, buyers of these securities are allowing the US government to borrow capital, and Congress is the body primarily responsible for spending that money. So let me pose my original question to you from a different standpoint. If your congressman walked up to you this afternoon and asked you personally for a loan – would you consider lending him money? Would your answer change if he offered the full faith and credit of the United States as a guarantee on your principal? Well, many investors today are saying “yes” to this request – possibly without fully understanding the risks involved.

While major equity markets gyrate in mixed trading after the payroll report, investors in The Blackstone Group LP (BX) are pushing the stock decidedly higher. Blackstone reported earnings Friday morning and while the official numbers showed a loss for the quarter, it appears that trends are turning higher for the private equity firm. Revenue and earnings figures for this company are particularly difficult to analyze because of the partnership accounting surrounding many of the firm’s managed alternative investments, but the statistics from the earnings release were certainly encouraging.

Many of the firms hedge funds have seen significant increases over the past two quarters as asset prices have become more liquid and risk premiums have increased. Unfortunately, quite a few of these funds have “high water marks” which have yet to be eclipsed. A high water mark simply means that the fund must make up losses for investors before Blackstone as a management company can collect the rich incentive allocations as part of its compensation. As these high water marks are reached, the profitability of Blackstone will likely increase geometrically as the firm is able to participate in the profits funded by its investors.

Investors in Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) are cheering the third quarter earnings release. For the period ending September 30, the company grew revenue by 2.4% and turned in earnings of $0.17 per share. The profit represented 13% growth over the same period last year as the company noted specific strength in bridal jewelry and international sales.

Any consumer discretionary company growing sales and earnings in this environment deserves a certain degree of respect. While the third quarter of 2008 was no picnic, retail companies are finding it difficult to convince penny pinching consumers to open their wallets. Blue Nile is capturing market share from competitors during the difficult economic period with the expectation that the recovery will bring substantial revenue and earnings growth.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two day meeting Wednesday with its customary announcement at 2:15 PM. The statement concluded (as everyone expected) that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at a target of 0% to 0.25%. More importantly, the committee said that it plans to keep rates exceptionally low for the foreseeable future – a very popular stance with the masses, but one which could lead to significant trouble down the road.

Essentially, it looks like the committee is trying to have its cake and eat it too. The official posture is that the economy is improving and capital markets are once again functioning. To back up this assumption, the Fed points to improving consumer spending, and home buying activity. Now those two areas have been artificially propped up by two major government programs… The “cash for clunkers” measure, along with the first time homebuyers tax credit.

The market melt-down caused a significant decline in the number of IPO transactions over the past two years. While a typical year used to include more than 200 major offerings, there were less than 50 such offerings in 2008 and so far I count 44 major transactions for 2009. However, the pace of deals has picked up as markets once again offer liquidity, and private equity investors and corporations are using that liquidity to cash out and raise capital.

The health of the most recent deals will have a major effect on both the pricing and frequency of upcoming deals. If investors are willing to take on risk and the market has a speculative tone, then underwriters will likely have little trouble in pricing deals and getting top dollar for the selling shareholders. But as we start to see a shift to more caution on the street, underwriters will have to adjust terms in order to get shares sold. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rate of deals will decline, but it may mean that sellers will have to settle for lower prices and for selling smaller allocations in order to match market demand.

Stanley Inc. (SXE) traded sharply higher Friday after reporting earnings for the fiscal second quarter. ZachStocks featured SXE last month noting that the company’s government contracts would likely drive growth in earnings. Investors are quickly competing to buy shares after the announcement which not only showed strong growth for the quarter, but included strong guidance from management.

For the second quarter (ending in September) the company logged revenue of $217.1 million which was 14% higher than the same quarter last year. The majority of this growth was organic, although three of the percentage points were due to an acquisition made earlier in the year. Earnings were also strong with EPS coming in at $0.49, an increase of 32% above last year’s levels.

This week LogMeIn Inc. (LOGM) reported earnings for the first full quarter that the company was public. The stock has been a rousing success with the initial investors receiving stock on July 1 at a price of $16. Initially, the stock began trading near $20 for a 25% initial premium to the deal price. As is usually the case, the stock backed off a bit once the hype of the deal dissipated, and by August the stock was testing the $16. IPO level. By the middle of this month the stock had successfully tested the initial price and broke to new highs in the low $20’s which is where the stock was positioned coming into the earnings announcement.

The third quarter looked very positive with the company reporting revenue of $19 million which is up 32%. Earnings were also strong with non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.12 compared to $0.05 last year. During the quarter the company generated operating cash flow of $7.1 million compared to $4.3 million last year, so the business model is certainly strong with the only question being how quickly and effectively management can scale in the future.

Over the past two months, the IPO market has heated up, allowing companies and private investors to access liquidity by selling new shares to the public. While the performance of these deals have varied from company to company, Verisk Analytics (VRSK) turned out to be one of the better managed, more profitable transactions for investors. The stock was offered to the public on October 7th at $22 per share and closed above $28.50 on Tuesday for an attractive gain of nearly 30%

The deal was underwritten by Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) along with a syndicate of supporting cast. Although Bank of America was not considered one of the top tier underwriters for the majority of this decade, their acquisition of Merrill Lynch during the financial meltdown has given them access to a large pool of retail and institutional investors which makes placing IPOs and secondary offerings a bit easier.