Zachary Scheidt

Four Stocks for 2009: Second Quarter Review

Thanks Dave - yes there are definitely several choices in this industry - each with different dynamics associated with debt, length of contracts, quality of customers, age of fleet, and type of fleet...

I'm a bit concerned that the bottom in the dry bulk index could be temporary similar to the broad equity market having bottomed in March but still vulnerable to significant decline today. For shipping to do well, we need international trade to pick up and at this point, trade trends are still very much in question.

Thanks for the great comment,
Zach
zachstocks.com

Three Investment Trends That Benefit From Cap and Trade

Ferdinand - I wish I believed that your scenario would play out. However, the escalation of commitment appears to be in place where the deeper you become committed to an issue, the more you have to justify your actions instead of taking an objective look at the long-term consequences. This is a feedback loop which gets stronger through time. So a change in policy is not likely until we have tried and failed and moved on.

I like the comment about Applied Materials - possibly another opportunity although it is larger and more well followed than the companies I typically invest in.

What other opportunities are in play with cap and trade?
Zach
zachstocks.com

AECOM Technology Corporation: Capital Raise Successful

1more4me... The volume has picked up to some degree but its unclear if that's due to the volatility surrounding the market and sector weakness or due to inclusion in the index.

The stock offering will increase the float somewhat and at least add a temporary spike in volume.

One issue that may be important is the significant outflows from mutual funds (passive and actively managed alike). That may eventually begin to cause some liquidity concerns.

Good luck with your position and thanks for the comment!
Zach
zachstocks.com

Four Stocks for 2009

RomanFinancial - Can I get a 7 series with ZachStocks logos? - maybe the dealer will give you a bargain on two :-)

Walk-on-wave... I think CMED is a bit more legitimate than you allude to. Obviously fraud can still happen, but at this point things look kosher - there are plenty of analysts that follow - documentation that is filed with the SEC etc. I'm sticking with it for now.

Junkbondswap - good thing we still have 358 days left!

All the best guys!
Zach
zachstocks.com

Four Stocks for 2009

There are quite a few solar names that will trade well this year. YGE, STP and FSLR are all good names (although FSLR scares me a bit with its higher multiple). But since I was limited in the competition I had to pick just one.

I certainly understand that JASO is facing challenges. But the low stock price appears to fully discount this. At this point, investors are likely to be pleasantly surprised and bid shares higher rather than sell (the selling has already taken place.)

Market Folly - that is definitely interesting about CMED. It has been a widely held position for some time, but there has been some confusion as to what product line will drive future growth. Management is becoming more focused (although less diversified) and I expect the market to reward this focus in the coming months. Good to know someone smarter than me agrees!

jrs87sch - I'll keep my eye on EHTH - thanks for the heads up...

Thanks guys for the comments!
Zach
zachstocks.com

Four Stocks for 2009

Glenn - you may be right. The sector certainly does have ties to traditional energy. But I think the political scene could circumvent some of that relationship as the new administration will push for subsidies to alternative energy as a matter of principal regardless of traditional energy prices.

1977 - Be careful with beta statistics. Beta measures the average amount that an index move will affect the stock (very rough description). But that totally ignores alpha (ie - the seeking alpha platform). Alpha is tricky because its the STOCK SPECIFIC returns that have nothing to do with the market. Hopefully I am able to turn up some names that have value in excess of just how the market moves the stock.

271917 - that's good - hopefully this just gives you a good spot to start your own research - no one knows it all. especially me!

Thanks All for your comments! Happy New Year
Zach

Four Stocks for 2009

JE - you got it - that's my job :-)

If you guys get a chance, drop by ZachStocks and take a look at the links to the other blogs in the competition - Hopefully it gives you some additional leads.

Happy New Year and here's to a profitable 2009!
Zach
zachstocks.com