Zachary Scheidt

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It definitely appears that hard and soft commodities could be a long-term play both as an inflation investment from the domestic (US) side as well as from an international policy (China looking for options other than the dollar) side.

There are plenty of large and small cap opportunities to play this move as well as simply buying long-dated futures contracts. You could play this trend directionally (more aggressive) or use plenty of hedging techniques to at least bet on stability in these prices. I think as a worst case scenario we will have a stable floor for commodities over the next 18 months.

Good recap - appreciate the insight and the charts,
Zach
zachstocks.com

Global Markets in Review: Think Rationally Ahead

Another interesting metric, is the fact that stocks with weak relative strength over the past 12 months (the truly beat up stocks) have led the market higher in the last 6 weeks (the junk has risen first).

This is typical of both bear market rallies AND early stage bull markets. So as Santoli noted in Barron's, this isn't a good metric to determine whether this rally is for real or not. But it DOES give us something to look for.

If the higher quality, financially sound companies begin to show their own strength, then that will help me be more confident in this rally, and put more capital to work.

Zach
zachstocks.com