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  • BlackBerry Is Making The Right Moves [View article]
    Since Chen reaffirmed earlier this year that BES still retained close to 60%, where are you getting your 'current' data from with regards to loss of market share?

    I do not disagree that there have been a number of high profile defections, defections which make press because the competitor who won the new contact wants to promote themselves, but what is needed is actual market share numbers. My friend defected from drinking Coke to drinking Pepsi but that does not mean that Coke's market share has dropped.

    What is needed is accurate current market share data from a reliable source in order to really know.
    Apr 15 09:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Wait For The Bears To Make It Cheap [View article]

    The problem you would have faced with your example is that either your thinking too short term or not short term enough.

    Taking a shorter term view, if you had sold the $9.50 options in the morning you would have picked up a nice return on those. By the afternoon, when tides had turned, if you sold the $8.50 options you would have made a nice return on those as well. The trick is not to get greedy.

    That's the whole idea behind day trading - although you may only make a few percent on most transactions, earning a few percent each day quickly compounds into a significant increase over time.

    Longer Term Strategy - With a swing stock which is how BlackBerry is behaving, it's a case of playing a range. You sell your Puts at the bottom shifting them to Calls, then when the stock recovers you sell the Puts.

    Nice thing about Friday from an investor trying this approach is that it was a known that it would drive the stock by at least 10%... the unknown was which direction. Since that direction was down you would cash out your puts, shifting them to calls then wait for the recovery. Even if the stock only recovers partially, as you have downward averaged the price of your calls your 'overall' return from your calls should still be positive.
    Mar 29 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    CORRECTION: I was just reading over the numbers in the 2014Q4 CEO Transcript and Chen did provide an update. BBM is not sitting at 113M or a growth of around 9M/month so they are at least keeping up with WhatsApp's rate of growth.
    Mar 28 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Very True... Unfortunately, unless made 'cool', BBM isn't going to find itself with 450M users either.

    Although BBM surged to 85M subscribers the end of last year, it seems to have plateaued while WhatsApp is still growing by 10's of millions of subscribers each quarter. The reason I say this is simply that Chen is still talking about BBM as having just 85M subscribers not three months after that number was released.
    Mar 28 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    But I would take your equation a step further:

    $BBRY: Mobility + Security = MDM = $6 - $10 / share
    (BES Licensing = $20/year x 16M licenses = $320M)

    To do significantly better than that, they are going to need one or more other revenue streams as well.

    * BB10 = Secure Hardware
    (Annual sales of perhaps 4 Million @ $250 each = $1B)
    * BBM = BBM Money + BBM Store + BBM Channels + BBM Calls
    (Revenue an Absolute Unknown)
    * QNX = QNX Auto + QNX Update
    (Perhaps as high as $100M annually)
    Mar 28 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    On the Device front I completely agree. However, if look at the recently announced strategies to monetize BBM, BlackBerry would appear to still be going after 'mainstream' messaging.

    * Subscribed Channels
    * Person to Person Money Transfers
    * BBM Shop (Selling Stickers, EmoCons, etc.)

    Other than perhaps the first method, I don't see these strategies as targeting enterprise clients.
    Mar 28 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Sorry you took the article that way, it was not how it was intended.

    The article was an attempt to disprove the misinformation being perpetrated by the various mass media outlets. Although the article starts by listing commonly stated falsehoods, it then explains either why the points are irrelevant (the Android problem) or misrepresented.
    Mar 28 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Case in point, consider the 'impression' given by the following title given to a recent Washington Post article.

    "The NSA has killed the best argument for still using a BlackBerry"

    I understand the need for a sensational title - to attract readers. That said, since the body of the article didn't support the title (well, not after it was corrected anyway), the title should have been:

    "Has the NSA killed the best argument for still using a BlackBerry?"

    I have seen various studies which suggest that for the majority of readers, a day after reading an article, all that sticks with them is the title.
    Mar 28 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Conceptually yes - encryption keys are generated by a 'server' then shared between clients.

    The big difference between BBM 'pre' BB10 and 'post' BB10 has more to do with PIN association. For BB7 devices, each PIN get's mapped, at the hardware serial number level, to a single handset. In the case of 'Multiplatform BBM', this is no longer the case - the PIN is linked to the user by login (i.e. if their handset fails, they can simply pick up a second handset and once they log in they'll see their BBM). This was done to make BBM hardware independent.
    Mar 28 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Although I disagree with your assertion that "all platforms relatively possess the same level of security", I would agree that, sadly for BlackBerry, for most people, devices by Apple and Samsung do provide 'adequate' security.

    Most people are also happy using a padlock from Home Depot to secure their gym locker - it works well enough for the job at hand. That said, you would never use that same lock to secure a bank vault.
    Mar 28 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell BlackBerry Now [View article]
    "One thing that is totally lacking and also not mentioned on the call is the implementation and execution of a credible mass marketing campaign. Handset rollouts without effective and lubricated marketing campaign = sales disaster."

    I understand this not being addressed. If by new devices you are talking the Z3, remember that it is being manufactured exclusively for the developing markets. BlackBerry has never provided much reporting with regards to business activities outside of the North American market when presenting their financial statements. Plus, it still unclear what involvement FoxxCon may have in marketing the Z3 versus BlackBerry.

    With regards to the Q20, since it will be marketed exclusively to existing business clients, it is far more cost effective to provide the information directly to those clients, perhaps by direct mailing, than spending much on advertising.
    Mar 28 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell BlackBerry Now [View article]
    I would argue that BB10 was a necessary evil as BlackBerry needed to be able to continue to provide a 'top to bottom' solution for clients such as their government accounts. That said, not making the moves being made now a year ago really hurt the company. Rather than trying to go after the 'mainstream' segment, and manufacturing millions more Z10/Q10 than they could sell.

    All is hind sight I guess, but I feel things would have been very different if they had simply skipped the Z10, released the Q10 as an 'enterprise' phone, then bring the Z30 to market when they did AND PUSH that it is 'Android App Compatible' and had the best 'HTML5' device on the market.

    BB10 was I feel 'rushed to market'. If they had waited until they had full Android support then in the 'App Race' the numbers would have been (numbers are just for illustration):-

    Android = 900,000 Apps

    iOS = 950,000 Apps

    BB10 = Android (900,000) + BlackBerry Native (100,000)
    = 1,000,000 Apps
    Mar 28 02:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q4 Earnings Show A Turnaround In Motion [View article]
    Overall a very balanced presentation. Although many positives in the statements some negative as well. It will take at least a few days to come to any conclusions.

    It is too bad that 4th quarter data wasn't broken out by BlackBerry, the risk with the approach of "subtracting the 12 month figures by the 9 month figures provided in the Q4/13" is that quarterly statements aren't audited and thus are far more open to management manipulation to make things appear as they would like them to see.

    I am a little uneasy regarding the cash burn this quarter. Essentially BlackBerry burned through almost $1B once you take out the additional $250M is debt acquired. Unfortunately, not enough information was provided in the statements to show how much related to one time expenses (such as penalties paid to suppliers, severance packages to laid off employees, etc.).

    The drop in service revenue doesn't bother me as it was entirely expected with the transition from paid contract model to 'free' model. I would have liked smaller granularity with regards to service revenue in the report, at the very least a breakout of BBM subscriber revenue, so we can easily see how other revenue streams are doing.

    To explain my point, consider the following two hypothetical cases.

    Case #1
    Revenue = BBM Subscribers + Ongoing Services
    Q1 = 2.0B + 0.3B = 2.3B
    Q2 = 1.5B + 0.5B = 2.0B
    Q3 = 1.0B + 0.7B = 1.7B
    Q4 = 0.5B + 0.9B = 1.4B

    Case #2
    Revenue = BBM Subscribers + Ongoing Services
    Q1 = 2.00B + 0.30B = 2.30B
    Q2 = 1.75B + 0.25B = 2.0B
    Q3 = 1.50B + 0.20B = 1.7B
    Q4 = 1.25B + 0.15B = 1.4B

    Although in both cases the revenue decline is the same, Case 1 supports claims of a turnaround, while Case 2 suggests a company on the decline. Consider what happens when you extend the same pattern out 4 more quarters.

    Case 1
    Q5 = 1.00B + 0.15B = 1.15B
    Q6 = 0.75B + 0.10B = 0.85B
    Q7 = 0.50B + 0.05B = 0.55B
    Q8 = 0.25B + 0.00B = 0.25B

    Case 2
    Q5 = 0.0B + 1.1B = 1.1B
    Q6 = 0.0B + 1.3B = 1.3B
    Q7 = 0.0B + 1.5B = 1.5B
    Q8 = 0.0B + 1.7B = 1.7B
    Mar 28 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q4 Earnings Show A Turnaround In Motion [View article]
    Very good points.

    I really wonder how 'interested' the likes of Samsung and Apple in the 'secure device' segment. Even the 'managed device' segment is tiny by comparison currently only representing around 1% of the overall SmartPhone market.
    Mar 28 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Phablet Will Kill BlackBerry [View article]
    One thing to consider is the Phablet is extremely popular for service businesses such as Bell Canada.

    Reason being is that they are large enough to allow field service staff to get rid of their laptops and load the service manual they need on the Phablet. That said, yes, they do look crazy if held up like a phone which is why the only person I've see use it as phone used a Bluetooth headset and left the Phablet sitting on the counter.
    Mar 28 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment