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  • The $800M Secret The BlackBerry Shorts Don't Want You To Know About [View article]
    The problem with this scenario is that people for some reason don't have any trouble paying the $700+ for a fashion statement (which is when it comes down to it what having an iPhone is all about). This includes those in China based on how well the iPhone is selling over there.

    For me carrying around an iPhone doesn't make me feel 'special'... but I never believed much in status symbols. I don't see how carrying around a iPhone (or an AmEx Platinum card for that matter) changes who you are or how others view you.

    Personally I refuse to pay for a name, or replace something every year or two just because it isn't the latest model... if it still works and does the job I keep it. But maybe that lust to keep upgrading is the norm... which I guess may even help explain why the divorce rate remains so high.

    The economics of the marketplace have to change in order for Apple to get into trouble. As long as people are willing to pay $50/month for cellular service including a 'free iPhone' the fact that the iPhone costs $700 while a Lenovo may only cost $200 yet have similar functionality doesn't matter a hill of beans.

    What will matter is when some new technology comes around to 'replace' the current 'style' of smartphone with something uniquely different. Lets Face it, almost every smartphone on the market isn't really the different from the iPhone 3/4/5... on the other hand going from the old BlackBerry to the iPhone was a huge step.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $800M Secret The BlackBerry Shorts Don't Want You To Know About [View article]
    David653 - Question for you...

    Your comments on long on general criticism and short on specifics (other than criticism of the new devices BlackBerry has released which have been well received in the niche markets they were intended for which goes counter to your criticism).

    BlackBerry crashed badly by trying to go head to head in the consumer marketplace last year... while the financials are looking much better now with a focused emphasis on the enterprise segment - even most analysts are admitting that BlackBerry will survive, the question now simply being what a fair market valuation for the company is.

    What exactly is it that you would like to see management to be focusing on if not the enterprise managed mobile device segment??? What exactly do you see wrong with the current path and where Chen is taking the company???
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Mobile Security Partnership Propels BlackBerry To 52 Week High [View article]
    I had written off the idea of BBRY hitting $15 this year (and along with that any chance I had to make money on some January calls I had at $14). With the stream of positive news lately I might actually make some money on those...
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:20 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Mobile Security Partnership Propels BlackBerry To 52 Week High [View article]
    It should not be overlooked that this goes a long way to address the edge that the IBM/Apple partnership has when approaching corporate prospects and that is that Apple has a mobile tablet while BBRY doesn't. With Samsung bringing Knox enabled tablets to BES12, a huge hole has been filled.

    I can't see any downside to BBRY working with Samsung. Unlike the case with BBRY working with Lenovo, with South Korea considered an ally (unlike China), existing and prospective clients shouldn't see the ties as presenting security concerns.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Mobile Security Partnership Propels BlackBerry To 52 Week High [View article]
    It should not be overlooked that this goes a long way to address the edge that the IBM/Apple partnership has when approaching corporate prospects and that is that Apple has a mobile tablet while BBRY doesn't. With Samsung bringing Knox enabled tablets to BES12, a huge hole has been filled.

    I can't see any downside to BBRY working with Samsung. Unlike the case with BBRY working with Lenovo, with South Korea considered an ally (unlike China), existing and prospective clients shouldn't see the ties as presenting security concerns.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Really Going To Get Bought Out? [View article]
    My only 'question' is 'Why Now?'.. the timing doesn't seem to make much sense.

    As others have pointed out, the Canadian Government has already squashed the idea of Lenovo taking over BlackBerry (a year ago) and since then there has been a lot of turmoil in China which would likely reinforce the 'anti China' sentiment in government.

    I am surprized that the Apple Conspiracists haven't jumped on the rumour as being an attempt by 'Evil Apple and IBM' to scare enterprises away from BlackBerry's BES and other business focused initiatives.

    That said, given how quiet both BlackBerry and Lenovo are being, along with Lenovo's stated intent to make a push into the enterprise market in 2015, it is likely that the companies are in talks of some type... but a joint venture or licensing arrangement is far more likely. But does it really matter to the investor IF the news is 'buyout' or 'joint venture' or 'licensing' as any one of these would justify an increase in share value.

    As a small investor, what does it matter if the shares are 'bought out' at $15+ or simply reach that level due to market pressures? Either way you can sell your shares for $15. Don't jump on me for suggesting that BBRY will jump to $15, just picking an arbitrary number to make a point.
    Oct 21, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Health Care Upside [View article]
    If NantHealth were to publically announce that they were in 'exclusive alliance' with BlackBerry to manufacturer hand held devices to interface with their system AND that they had, after examining solutions by IBM & Microsoft (for example), selected BBM Protect as the 'backend' infrastructure for their system, it would likely have had a much larger impact on BBRY share value than simply BlackBerry investing in NantHealth along with a vague comment regarding the joint development of a new BlackBerry device for NantHealth.

    Don't get me wrong, there is huge potential BUT be careful not to bet caught in the hype and realize this simply is another reason to warrant including BBRY as part of the 'speculative stock' component of your portfolio. Simply there is too much speculation and not enough hard fact at this time regarding the possible payoff.
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Channeling iPhone And Air Jordan To Create Frenzied Demand For The Passport? [View article]
    Problem is that, unlike HP, each of the 'divisions' within BlackBerry are integrated and to a certain degree dependent upon one another. How would you split the company?

    (1) Network Infrastructure
    . (a) Traditional Service Subscribers
    . (b) BBM Services
    . (c) New Cloud Services
    (2) Devices
    (3) Software
    . (a) Enterprise Software
    . (c) Mobile Software
    (4) Patent Litigation

    ...

    The situation with HP was very different. The 'new HP' had two very different identities and product lines - Computing and Instrumentation - each requiring a completely different management style for success.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Channeling iPhone And Air Jordan To Create Frenzied Demand For The Passport? [View article]
    Good point regarding 'shipped' versus 'sold'. Has anyone seen the 'actual' wording of the statement by Chen regarding the 200K number? Most publications suggest what Chen stated was that 200K were SOLD in the first few days of sale NOT that 200K were ordered.

    http://bit.ly/1q9Xilg

    200K SOLD would be a very positive indicator, while as you point out 200K SHIPPED would be of far less significance.

    I am surprized that one of the analysts who track parts shipments to manufacturers hasn't piped up details regarding how many Passports have actually been manufactured - this information was readily available in the case of the Z10/Q10 products.
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Let's Not Get Too Crazy [View article]
    It will be interesting to see if Zipperstein sells the other of the rights he exercised. Selling half and keeping half could be taken from the proverbial glass half full or half empty perspective.

    Personally I have lost a lot of faith in Zipperstein... although he had a strong background in patent litigation he hasn't seemed to be able to deliver the hard hitting patent litigation that held so much potential for BlackBerry. The patents purchased by BlackBerry from Nortel alone appeared to have the potential to generate billions in revenue considering that they cover what is the core to Google's advertising revenue generation ability (and for which reason Google was willing to pay a kings ransom to obtain when Nortel was selling them).
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Channeling iPhone And Air Jordan To Create Frenzied Demand For The Passport? [View article]
    I think you nailed it on the head. With the 'better than anticipated' initial sales I wouldn't be surprized if AT&T significantly increased the number of Passports they had on order from BlackBerry which in turn could have extended the shortage of supply for online sellers.

    However, it would be foolish for BlackBerry to significantly increase manufacturing based upon short term demand (and in particular how every many phones AT&T may pre-order). Look at how overproduction of the Z10/Q10 (based on initial demand from service providers and even preliminary sell through numbers) worked out for the company.

    From an enterprise account perspective, other than obtaining a few units for initial testing (which I am sure that BlackBerry will have already made available to major accounts) the shortage of supply in the short term will have no impact on long terms sales. The testing before new devices are rolled out usually takes months, by which time BlackBerry should have a better understanding of what the actual demand is going to be.
    Oct 6, 2014. 04:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Let's Not Get Too Crazy [View article]
    Marketing (aka Advertising) can be extremely expensive and the problem for BlackBerry is where to focus efforts. Personally I could see it making more sense to hold off marketing the Passport (and Classic) until BES12 is available and market the entire bundle in a single campaign aimed squarely at business and government in appropriate venues.

    I don't see it making a lot of sense at this point in time to spend a ton on marketing the Passport in the general press as it is not the market that they are currently focused on. IF by chance the Passport starts to catch on with the large market, then and only then would I feel that spending money in this area might make sense. REMEMBER the Passport (and the Classic) are targeted products aimed at specific market segments NOT products intended for the general marketplace.
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Let's Not Get Too Crazy [View article]
    If you actually look at the numbers the opposite would appear to be the case with new large investors more than making up for those investors who are getting out.

    http://bit.ly/X85EBG

    It is going in be interesting over the next few weeks as the holdings numbers for September start leaking out to see what direction major holders are headed. IF we see a noticeable change, this could well drive smaller investors in a big way.

    Realize that with a company with a market cap as small as BlackBerry that even one large investor choosing to come in can have a huge impact on institutional ownership numbers. There are many institutional 'investors' who don't think twice about investing $100M in turnaround prospects which with BBRY's current market cap would equate to a 2% change in ownership. However, it is not the actual change which would be as significant as the major vote of confidence.
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Easy Path To 10 Million Phone Shipments [View article]
    "On that basis, the Passport outsold the iPhone by more than two to one."

    When comparing initial Passport to iPhone 6 sales, don't overlook a few other key factors:-

    (1) The Passport was a 'sell out' while I have yet to find any retailer who doesn't have the iPhone 6 in stock. This makes it impossible to know comparatively how well the two devices are selling since the sales of the one were capped while the other wasn't.

    (2) The Passport was launched in a few select markets, while the iPhone 6 was a global launch into all markets.

    (3) The Passport has seen only a fraction of the media coverage and tiny fraction of the advertising that the iPhone 6 has seen.

    (4) As most sales of the Passport were through direct marketing efforts, it is likely only a fraction of the sales reported relate to channel sales (i.e. channel stuffing). On the other hand a large number of the iPhone 6+ reported sales likely relate to channel stuffing. Out of curiosity when I was in to a local BestBuy (Saturday Afternoon following the launch) I asked them how many iPhone 6+ they 'still' had for sale. I was told 9. When I asked how many they had received since launch I was told 12. From Apples perspective, the 'reported sales' would have been the 12 they shipped to BestBuy NOT the 3 sold by BestBuy.

    I am not suggesting that the Passport, if not for these factors, would have sold in the numbers the iPhone has sold BUT simply that it is very possible that it would have sold significantly higher than it ddi WHILE the real sales of the iPhone 6x are significantly lower than the numbers reported.
    Oct 3, 2014. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Accidentally Helps Watsa As BlackBerry Finds Love In New York, Tokyo And Seoul [View article]
    Very interesting perspective, but I think you are overlooking the fact that BBM in the big picture has not been able to penetrate the social media cloud to any large extent. I'm sorry, but if your not in the top 10 your simply not a player and if your numbers are correct their are very few markets where BBM cracks the top 10. Interestingly absent from your stats was India which has been talked about elsewhere as one of the key markets to watch... I assume that they are another market where BBM doesn't even crack the top 100.

    On a brighter side, your research regarding the Japanese market is of particular interest. IF, as your regional numbers for Japan suggest, in developed markets (which would include the US, UK, Canada, etc.) the majority of the users are professionals and business subscribers I agree that this may bode well for the company's long term prospects. If in fact BBM, although being 43rd overall in the US market, was the #1 choice among business professionals, then the table turns with regards to, as you point out, the prospects for things like eBBM. I would love to see statistical data with regards to BBM penetration by demographic profile.

    The other concern that I have after reading your research is with regards to your statement:

    "It is sitting at the 101 or 102 area. Sometimes, the rank fluctuates lower. For example, in the last 30 days, it has dipped to 217th place, though now it sits at 102 as of Oct 2nd."

    This type fluctuation is typical of those with statistically insignificant positions. Think about it this way, if you survey 100 people in a City with a population of 100,000 and of those 50 prefer Brand X you can be fairly confident that about 50% prefer Brand X. But if only 1 person says they prefer Brand Y, it is quite likely that if you did another random survey of 100 different individuals that the next time the number for Brand Y would be something other than 1 - likely either 0 or 2.
    Oct 3, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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