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  • BlackBerry Demystified: Everything Wall Street Is Not Telling You [View article]
    Perhaps a little too sweet in how things were presented, but balances the storm of negative articles nicely.

    One criticism though is that I don't see how the success (for failure for that matter) of QNX will have much of an effect on BlackBerry's bottom line... the dollar value for licensing of embedded OS is simply too small (at under $1 a license, it takes a lot of licenses to offset the $Billions in revenue declines). MDM has potential, as do 'specialized' devices, but I just don't see QNX adding a lot BUT it could be leveraged to help with image building.

    That said, I have to laugh every time someone talks about "how New Coke (KO) was a flop and the original formula had to be brought back."

    Although initially it was thought to have been one of the greatest marketing disaster of all time, a year later, once all the data was in (I was in university studying marketing at the time), it was argued in business schools that it may have in fact been one of the greatest advertising successes of all time.

    If you look at the actual numbers, although in the first few months after the launch of 'New Coke' (April 23, 1985), sales dropped significantly, as soon as they released 'Coke Classic' (July 10, 1985), not only did they recapture the market share they lost but in fact they ended up stealing a huge portion of Pepsi's market share as well. When the final numbers for 1985 came out, sales of Coke were up year over year, despite the fact that the overall sales of cola products (i.e. size of market) had actually decreased. The nostalgic 'backlash' which initially drove sales down in the end lead to a whiplash effect driving the sales eventually up to even greater highs as many who had long ago stopped drinking Coke were brought back into the fold.
    Apr 23 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sub-$100 Nexus Phone Can Kill The BlackBerry Z3 [View article]
    Very good point... but not sure if you are in support or against BlackBerry. As you pointed out, in order to sell in Indonesia devices have to support BBM out of the box. It is not just Nokia, but even Samsung needs to have the 'BBM' sticker on the box to sell.

    With the growth in these markets, this opens up huge opportunities for BlackBerry. For example, BBM branding is better known than either PayPal or Interact leaving the door wide open for BBM Money to become the platform of choice for instant money transfers in Indonesia.

    What does it really matter how well the Z3 sells, if BlackBerry is able to cash in on other brands as well?
    Apr 19 11:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sub-$100 Nexus Phone Can Kill The BlackBerry Z3 [View article]
    The problem is that Google has shown that they are willing to take a loss on hardware and then make it back on subsequent service revenue. If the rumor is true, the device may not necessarily be a cheap unit but rather a loss leader.

    Realize that Google is in a position of needing to ensure that new mobile OS (like Tizen) coming this year don't erode Android's market share.
    Apr 19 11:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sub-$100 Nexus Phone Can Kill The BlackBerry Z3 [View article]
    The biggest threat brought to the table with a top notch Nexus phone will be a threat to both Samsung and Apple. At $100 we are talking about a phone which on a service plan would come with a service credit... as high as possibly the 3 or perhaps even 6 months free on a 2 year service pan.

    With the top notch reputation which Nexus represents, it will be hard for anyone to justify spending a $100 to $200 premium for a new Apple when instead they can get a plan free for the first few months on top of providing a top notch phone.

    Could a $100 Nexus hurt BlackBerry? YES... but it is likely to hurt other players even more.
    Apr 19 11:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making The Right Moves [View article]
    Since Chen reaffirmed earlier this year that BES still retained close to 60%, where are you getting your 'current' data from with regards to loss of market share?

    I do not disagree that there have been a number of high profile defections, defections which make press because the competitor who won the new contact wants to promote themselves, but what is needed is actual market share numbers. My friend defected from drinking Coke to drinking Pepsi but that does not mean that Coke's market share has dropped.

    What is needed is accurate current market share data from a reliable source in order to really know.
    Apr 15 09:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Wait For The Bears To Make It Cheap [View article]

    The problem you would have faced with your example is that either your thinking too short term or not short term enough.

    Taking a shorter term view, if you had sold the $9.50 options in the morning you would have picked up a nice return on those. By the afternoon, when tides had turned, if you sold the $8.50 options you would have made a nice return on those as well. The trick is not to get greedy.

    That's the whole idea behind day trading - although you may only make a few percent on most transactions, earning a few percent each day quickly compounds into a significant increase over time.

    Longer Term Strategy - With a swing stock which is how BlackBerry is behaving, it's a case of playing a range. You sell your Puts at the bottom shifting them to Calls, then when the stock recovers you sell the Puts.

    Nice thing about Friday from an investor trying this approach is that it was a known that it would drive the stock by at least 10%... the unknown was which direction. Since that direction was down you would cash out your puts, shifting them to calls then wait for the recovery. Even if the stock only recovers partially, as you have downward averaged the price of your calls your 'overall' return from your calls should still be positive.
    Mar 29 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    CORRECTION: I was just reading over the numbers in the 2014Q4 CEO Transcript and Chen did provide an update. BBM is not sitting at 113M or a growth of around 9M/month so they are at least keeping up with WhatsApp's rate of growth.
    Mar 28 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Very True... Unfortunately, unless made 'cool', BBM isn't going to find itself with 450M users either.

    Although BBM surged to 85M subscribers the end of last year, it seems to have plateaued while WhatsApp is still growing by 10's of millions of subscribers each quarter. The reason I say this is simply that Chen is still talking about BBM as having just 85M subscribers not three months after that number was released.
    Mar 28 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    But I would take your equation a step further:

    $BBRY: Mobility + Security = MDM = $6 - $10 / share
    (BES Licensing = $20/year x 16M licenses = $320M)

    To do significantly better than that, they are going to need one or more other revenue streams as well.

    * BB10 = Secure Hardware
    (Annual sales of perhaps 4 Million @ $250 each = $1B)
    * BBM = BBM Money + BBM Store + BBM Channels + BBM Calls
    (Revenue an Absolute Unknown)
    * QNX = QNX Auto + QNX Update
    (Perhaps as high as $100M annually)
    Mar 28 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    On the Device front I completely agree. However, if look at the recently announced strategies to monetize BBM, BlackBerry would appear to still be going after 'mainstream' messaging.

    * Subscribed Channels
    * Person to Person Money Transfers
    * BBM Shop (Selling Stickers, EmoCons, etc.)

    Other than perhaps the first method, I don't see these strategies as targeting enterprise clients.
    Mar 28 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Sorry you took the article that way, it was not how it was intended.

    The article was an attempt to disprove the misinformation being perpetrated by the various mass media outlets. Although the article starts by listing commonly stated falsehoods, it then explains either why the points are irrelevant (the Android problem) or misrepresented.
    Mar 28 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Case in point, consider the 'impression' given by the following title given to a recent Washington Post article.

    "The NSA has killed the best argument for still using a BlackBerry"

    I understand the need for a sensational title - to attract readers. That said, since the body of the article didn't support the title (well, not after it was corrected anyway), the title should have been:

    "Has the NSA killed the best argument for still using a BlackBerry?"

    I have seen various studies which suggest that for the majority of readers, a day after reading an article, all that sticks with them is the title.
    Mar 28 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Conceptually yes - encryption keys are generated by a 'server' then shared between clients.

    The big difference between BBM 'pre' BB10 and 'post' BB10 has more to do with PIN association. For BB7 devices, each PIN get's mapped, at the hardware serial number level, to a single handset. In the case of 'Multiplatform BBM', this is no longer the case - the PIN is linked to the user by login (i.e. if their handset fails, they can simply pick up a second handset and once they log in they'll see their BBM). This was done to make BBM hardware independent.
    Mar 28 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Security Concerns [View article]
    Although I disagree with your assertion that "all platforms relatively possess the same level of security", I would agree that, sadly for BlackBerry, for most people, devices by Apple and Samsung do provide 'adequate' security.

    Most people are also happy using a padlock from Home Depot to secure their gym locker - it works well enough for the job at hand. That said, you would never use that same lock to secure a bank vault.
    Mar 28 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell BlackBerry Now [View article]
    "One thing that is totally lacking and also not mentioned on the call is the implementation and execution of a credible mass marketing campaign. Handset rollouts without effective and lubricated marketing campaign = sales disaster."

    I understand this not being addressed. If by new devices you are talking the Z3, remember that it is being manufactured exclusively for the developing markets. BlackBerry has never provided much reporting with regards to business activities outside of the North American market when presenting their financial statements. Plus, it still unclear what involvement FoxxCon may have in marketing the Z3 versus BlackBerry.

    With regards to the Q20, since it will be marketed exclusively to existing business clients, it is far more cost effective to provide the information directly to those clients, perhaps by direct mailing, than spending much on advertising.
    Mar 28 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment