Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Zignals  

View Zignals' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Handicapping the ETF Data Providers [View article]
    Zignals is as close to a one-stop solution you can find on the web. We cover ETFs from the US and Europe with free ETF charting and price Alerts for ETFs. Online portfolio manager with import feature, and our flagship Trading System builder which will allow you build mechanical trading strategies around ETFs (stocks or Forex) which can be sold in the MarketPlace once out of Beta. As a trading strategy publisher you get your signals delivered to you for free.

    We are continually looking to build-in new features and you will find all of these services in our all-in-one Market Portal.

    Read what our members say about us on Investimonials.

    Thanks,
    DJF
    Mar 23, 2010. 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Silverlight Installed More than Firefox, Safari and Chrome - Combined [View article]
    Zignals also uses Silverlight and offers 100% Free Stock Charts, Stock Alerts, Stock Screener and Multi-Currency Portfolio Manager. FX data too. More features coming online soon.

    Declan
    Jul 14, 2009. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charts Show Commodities Bottoming [View article]
    Time frames for the Calls were inside a year; GLD has the best chance of making the deadline with Base Metals probably looking at 2 years before challenging the target.

    DJF
    May 6, 2009. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Punishing the Savers in a Savings Poor Country [View article]
    Totally Agree

    It's true bubbles are exposed by a little common sense; how difficult was it for people to look at a mortgage repayment scheme and compare to it their income (or rent) to know what they could afford?

    To be a top 10% income earner by tax return but not able to afford a mortgage on a 2-bed was a damning fact of the housing bubble. But what could you do other than wait for it to collapse?

    Now I watch our savings returns built for the purpose of buying an *affordable* house dwindle, knowing down the road stimulus-induced inflation is going to put the savings that are left to the sword.

    Paying for other's greed really sticks in the craw.

    America needs a clean slate.

    DJF
    Apr 2, 2009. 05:09 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom [View article]
    Technicals do work - the challenge is knowing when to accept or ignore a signal; e.g. in a trending market one should ignore momentum signals while in a trading range one should ignore trend signals. Statistical studies on Technical Analysis show no advantage because the experimental design does not allow for individual interpretation; it simply takes an amalgamation of all signals.

    Sentiment (Bullish Percents, Summation Indices and Percentage of Stocks above key MAs) started to peak late 2006 into early 2007, but this came in an environment of end-phase gluttony generated by excessive bullish media leading to a market which tagged on another 15% worth of gains before it truly started to rollover. It would have taken an iron will to have shielded yourself from the news and stepped back.

    Now we are in a market where the reverse is true. Both fundamental and technical analysis is getting trashed. The former brutally exposed by the shenanigans of Wall Street which collapsed the validity of nearly every earnings report of companies with a hint of consumer loan exposure; who can trust an earnings report and by association, fundamental analysis now? Where were the Ivy league MBAs or CFAs at calling this mess back in 2006/07? Nowhere. Not even Warren Buffett escaped the carnage and no one would deny his extraordinary sway in been able to formulate a deal at the best possible terms; is anyone blaming Buffett for not calling the top? No - I didn't think so.

    Sentiment has sharply recovered from the lows of late last year (new all-time lows at that) but like in 2006/07 where markets made new highs in the face of weakening sentiment, now markets are making new lows in the face of strengthening sentiment.

    Cycle analysis suggests a bottom won't complete until early 2010 but on improving sentiment there is ground for optimism. The bigger questions is when will the secular bear market end? Again, cyclical analysis suggests we are only half-way there but at least we can expect a respectable counter rally before we have to start looking downwards again.

    Technical analysis is not rocket science, it's a tool to derive risk probability based on the psychology of the market place. Do you think people slapped Barry Ritholtz on the back when he was crying foul on the housing market in 2007? No, he got a far more dismissive response from the same people who think Technical Analysis is nothing more than tea leave reading.

    People continue to challenge Technical Analysis as if its some panacea for their own failings; presumably these same individuals lost money using either fundamental analysis, or worse still, relied on others to make their investment decisions for them.

    Hopefully the lesson will have been learned and now people will accept the importance of doing their own research, research which encompasses the best parts of fundamental (dividend screening) and technical (sentiment) analysis. It's not to late. Few will have emerged unscathed but at least stocks trade at values not seen in over 10 years. Opportunities will avail of themselves, just don't be throwing what reserves are left at one stock in one day.

    Declan
    Mar 26, 2009. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold and Silver - Perhaps the Bugs Have the Wrong Beast? [View article]
    Rising Green Trendline as first support test

    January reaction lows around your $800 as second support test


    On Jan 29 05:43 PM adan wrote:

    > dr fallon:
    >
    > re: "There is probably the momentum to get it there {$92}, but beyond
    > that, it might struggle without first making it back to trend support
    > first." -
    >
    > would that be around (give or take) the $800 level as per your reading?

    >
    >
    > thank you much
    Feb 9, 2009. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let the Dollar's Recent Strength Fool You [View article]
    Gold is overvalued with respect to other precious metals and gold is the only commodity to have withstood the selling in the sector. A bear tide sinks all ships and gold will need to drop to 'fair value'; this should be bullish for the dollar. However, I would agree a break of 92 is needed on the advance from 70 lows if the downtrend in the dollar is not to quicken.
    Feb 3, 2009. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Historically Bad Times for the S&P [View article]
    Errata:

    Due to a misplaced cell reference the MA relationships are out (for the 200-day MAs in particular). The context is the same however

    Nov 20th: 16% from 20-day MA, 25% from 50-day MA and 40% from 200-day MA
    Oct 3rd 1974: 7% from 20-day MA, 14% from 50-day MA and 29% from 200-day MA
    Dec 10 1987: 2% from 20-day MA, 10% from 50-day MA and 20% from 200-day MA
    Dec 1973: 3% from 20-day MA, 10% from 50-day MA and 13% from 200-day MA
    Nov 3 1987: 5% above 20-day MA; 12% above 50-day MA and 23% above 200-day MA

    Declan
    Dec 4, 2008. 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama Bottom [View article]
    > This article has a lot in common with other renowned fields - phrenology,
    > astrology, cheiromancy and tasseography.

    Technicals are a tool. Fundamentals are a tool.

    Technical Analysis is about measuring probability; the probability of buyers ('support') or sellers ('resistance') taking control of the market. What I have attempted to illustrate is how fearful the market have become by overselling relative to key moving averages and how this provides an opportunity.

    If I am reading correctly from your previous comments you have been dipping in to the market since last August because you perceived value in the market. Since the top in October 2007 the market struggled to regain its 200-day MA in November 2007 and May 2008. In August 2008 it struggled to break through its 50-day MA. Now its struggling to get past its 20-day MA. Just as these moving averages acted as support through the cyclical bull market from 2002-2007 now they are acting as resistance. But when the 20-day MA is acting as resistance you need to consider this state won't last long and markets will soon be pushing through (and higher)?

    Fundamentals doesn't deliver in this respect. How can anyone believe in pure fundamentals after the events of the past year?

    The time Uranus went all retrograde was in the balance sheets and earnings of AIG, Bear, Lehmans et al (not to forget Enron and Worldcom).
    Nov 7, 2008. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama Bottom [View article]

    > With a time-proven bear market low "requirement&q... of a
    > PE of 8 on forward earnings, and forward earnings expected now to
    > be $50-$60, the S&P500 needs to get under 500 to find a real
    > lasting bottom.
    >
    > That is much more relevant than trendlines or moving averages.

    > It will happen.

    When you factor price into a decision making process you are dealing with a technical; so P/E is a hybrid technical/fundamental indicator and is as relevant as any trendline or moving average.

    Given that, I would be surprised to see a S&P below 500. Each new quarter will revise for the forward P/E and therefore the projected target for a "bottom".


    Nov 7, 2008. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama Bottom [View article]
    > Is a Left Wing Government good for stocks?

    Mixed government is best for stocks. By 2010 elections we will be three years into a cyclical bear market within a secular bear market and the psychological damage this will have caused. The electorate may look to give control of the House to Republicans which from a policy perspective shifts things center and gives confidence to the market.

    Are you arguing the Right Wing Government we had was good for stocks?

    >
    > Look at what happened in the seventies and you can get an idea of
    > where the economy and general market is going.

    The market bottomed in the early seventies.

    The economic damage has already been done, now it's a question of gritting teeth, supporting boutique (small) businesses which will fill the void, and getting the economy back on its feet.

    >
    > Those folks in NYC, in their inherent hubris, forget when states
    > like Wyoming and Idaho had to bail them out from their left wing
    > local government policies.

    *Every* tax payer had to bail out Wall Street. Don't ge me wrong, if execs are willing to accept their outrageous pay deals they should also accept the responsibilty of going to jail if they get things wrong....
    Nov 7, 2008. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama Bottom [View article]
    "You can speculate about the new sheriff in town and past being behind us. But I think the past remains very relevant. Take a look at these two charts and ponder one simple concept: "regression to the mean," which frequently involves overshooting in the opposite direction. "

    Interesting charts. If you look at the period from 1880 to 1910 (S&P) the market continously traded above the regression line. From 1910 to 2000 the market spent the majority of its time below the regression line. One can argue since 2000 we have entered a 'positive phase' where markets trade above the line.

    At some point the line will break, but we might have to wait decades before it does.


    Nov 7, 2008. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials Bailouts, Tempur-Pedic and Wine [View article]
    Marvellous...
    Sep 12, 2008. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guru Picks: Five Blue Chips [View article]
    Thanks for the spot THofler. Assumed the short company name was the stock symbol.

    DJF
    Sep 5, 2008. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Need To Fear the Bottom [View article]
    Charts are a great graphical way to intrepret market participants' response to fundamental and economic inputs. It looks like many have caught a case of tunnel vision for oil prices - but the aforementioned factors you mentioned Pauly are all important here on out.
    Jul 11, 2008. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
17 Comments
11 Likes