Stock Market Outlook from Seeking Alpha 'Market Outlook' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/tag/market-outlook Commodity Driven Role Reversal http://seekingalpha.com/article/83791-commodity-driven-role-reversal?source=feed 83791 David Coffin co-wrote this article.

In the 1970s, Baby Boomers were swelling job ranks and women were moving out of the home and into the paid workforce in most of the industrialized world.  At the same time, OPEC pushed crude oil prices through the roof to overturn what it viewed as a predatory system of resource transfer set up by colonial powers.   

]]> 2008-07-04T04:28:37-04:00 David Coffin Eric Coffin submits:

David Coffin co-wrote this article.

In the 1970s, Baby Boomers were swelling job ranks and women were moving out of the home and into the paid workforce in most of the industrialized world.  At the same time, OPEC pushed crude oil prices through the roof to overturn what it viewed as a predatory system of resource transfer set up by colonial powers.   


Complete Story »]]> Eric Coffin David Coffin Mid-Year Market Roundup http://seekingalpha.com/article/83785-mid-year-market-roundup?source=feed 83785 I would say that things are downright scary, but I am afraid that would be a colossal understatement at this point. 2008 has been pretty much what we expected and then some. A couple of themes have emerged during the first half of this year that require our attention and careful consideration as we gear up for the second half of the year.  

Action, Not Words 

]]> 2008-07-04T04:04:10-04:00 Andy Sutton Andy Sutton submits:

I would say that things are downright scary, but I am afraid that would be a colossal understatement at this point. 2008 has been pretty much what we expected and then some. A couple of themes have emerged during the first half of this year that require our attention and careful consideration as we gear up for the second half of the year.  

Action, Not Words 


Complete Story »]]> Andy Sutton GFD Guide to Total Returns: Market History - and Future? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83768-gfd-guide-to-total-returns-market-history-and-future?source=feed 83768 The markets are closed and I am outta here for some fish tacos, some beach, some surf, and some bbqing. If you need some weekend reading, here goes...

This post below reminds me of Question #2 from Fisher's book:

]]> 2008-07-04T01:53:52-04:00 Mebane Faber Mebane Faber submits:

The markets are closed and I am outta here for some fish tacos, some beach, some surf, and some bbqing. If you need some weekend reading, here goes...

This post below reminds me of Question #2 from Fisher's book:


Complete Story »]]> Mebane Faber Market Action: Past, Present, Future http://seekingalpha.com/article/83767-market-action-past-present-future?source=feed 83767 The great thing is to last and get your work done and see and hear and learn and understand; and write when there is something that you know; and not before; and not too damned much after.
-- Ernest Hemingway

The market's health the past 8 months reminds me that I should reiterate my investing methodology. First, though, a review of the markets...

]]> 2008-07-04T01:45:02-04:00 David Gordon David M. Gordon submits:

The great thing is to last and get your work done and see and hear and learn and understand; and write when there is something that you know; and not before; and not too damned much after.
-- Ernest Hemingway

The market's health the past 8 months reminds me that I should reiterate my investing methodology. First, though, a review of the markets...


Complete Story »]]> SPY QQQQ DIA David Gordon Options Trader: Thursday Outlook http://seekingalpha.com/article/83729-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed 83729 Wow, now we are looking at a good open!

The ECB did, as expected, tighten rates by a quarter point, now 4.25% to our Fed’s 2% and our payrolls were indeed down 62,000 jobs with 5.5% unemployment and May was revised DOWN another 13,000 jobs to minus 62,000 as well.  All this was worse than expected with manufacturing and construction losses of 69,000 jobs were combined with 51,000 lost "Professional and Business Services" jobs and those were offset by 29,000 new government jobs, 15,000 Health care jobs and 7,000 service sector jobs.

]]> 2008-07-03T09:25:31-04:00 Philip Davis Phil Davis submits:

Wow, now we are looking at a good open!

The ECB did, as expected, tighten rates by a quarter point, now 4.25% to our Fed’s 2% and our payrolls were indeed down 62,000 jobs with 5.5% unemployment and May was revised DOWN another 13,000 jobs to minus 62,000 as well.  All this was worse than expected with manufacturing and construction losses of 69,000 jobs were combined with 51,000 lost "Professional and Business Services" jobs and those were offset by 29,000 new government jobs, 15,000 Health care jobs and 7,000 service sector jobs.


Complete Story »]]> SPY DIA QQQQ OIL USO IEV Philip Davis A Selloff Follows the Out-of-the-Blue Rally - Not Good http://seekingalpha.com/article/83719-a-selloff-follows-the-out-of-the-blue-rally-not-good?source=feed 83719 That was not the right way to follow up a reversal day (Tuesday). To open with strength and close at the low of the day, completely erasing Tuesday's reversal (which was in itself bullish) - not a good thing. That said, as I've been saying We Need Fear, and perhaps the first hints of it are arriving (would coal stocks losing 1/5th of their value in 1 session be a good indicator?)


So we're back here at S&P 1260 where we miraculously rallied off on Tuesday (out of the blue) - of course the market being the wicked thing she is - I was positioned much better for a fall through that level  before the out of the blue rally. So she is being at her most wicked self at this point with reversals left and right. I am reading a lot of frustrated investors/traders on multiple sites so if you are feeling that way, you are not alone. I haven't seen so many headfakes since the Barry Sanders years.

]]> 2008-07-03T09:00:57-04:00 Trader Mark Trader Mark submits:

That was not the right way to follow up a reversal day (Tuesday). To open with strength and close at the low of the day, completely erasing Tuesday's reversal (which was in itself bullish) - not a good thing. That said, as I've been saying We Need Fear, and perhaps the first hints of it are arriving (would coal stocks losing 1/5th of their value in 1 session be a good indicator?)


So we're back here at S&P 1260 where we miraculously rallied off on Tuesday (out of the blue) - of course the market being the wicked thing she is - I was positioned much better for a fall through that level  before the out of the blue rally. So she is being at her most wicked self at this point with reversals left and right. I am reading a lot of frustrated investors/traders on multiple sites so if you are feeling that way, you are not alone. I haven't seen so many headfakes since the Barry Sanders years.


Complete Story »]]> DUG SPY QQQQ Trader Mark What Will Be Today's Rate Action? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83718-what-will-be-today-s-rate-action?source=feed 83718 This market just doesn't get any easier, does it? Consider that in the last day and a half, we've observed the following:

a) A stunning intraday rally on Tuesday off the S&P 500 Maginot line, apparently based on GM (GM) sales figures, the flimsiest of possible justifications.

]]> 2008-07-03T08:59:03-04:00 Macro Man Macro Man submits:

This market just doesn't get any easier, does it? Consider that in the last day and a half, we've observed the following:

a) A stunning intraday rally on Tuesday off the S&P 500 Maginot line, apparently based on GM (GM) sales figures, the flimsiest of possible justifications.


Complete Story »]]> Macro Man A Look at the Russell 1000 and the Russell 2000 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83713-a-look-at-the-russell-1000-and-the-russell-2000?source=feed 83713 Below, is an examination of performance for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indices by GICS sector followed by my commentary.


Russell 1000- Large Cap
Performance: by GICS Sector

Index -1.9%
Energy +19.2% (14% of Index)
Utilities +8.0% (4% of Index)
Materials +5.8% (4% of Index)
Technology +3.2% (16% of Index)
Health Care -1.1% (11% of Index)
Telecom -2.5% (3% of Index)
Consumer Staples -5.4% (10% of Index)
Industrials -8.0% (12% of Index)
Consumer Discretionary -8.1% (9% of Index)
Financials -16.9% (16% of Index)

]]> 2008-07-03T08:37:54-04:00 Dan Weiss Dan Weiss submits:

Below, is an examination of performance for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indices by GICS sector followed by my commentary.


Russell 1000- Large Cap
Performance: by GICS Sector

Index -1.9%
Energy +19.2% (14% of Index)
Utilities +8.0% (4% of Index)
Materials +5.8% (4% of Index)
Technology +3.2% (16% of Index)
Health Care -1.1% (11% of Index)
Telecom -2.5% (3% of Index)
Consumer Staples -5.4% (10% of Index)
Industrials -8.0% (12% of Index)
Consumer Discretionary -8.1% (9% of Index)
Financials -16.9% (16% of Index)


Complete Story »]]> DIA SPY QQQQ Dan Weiss A Mid-Year Look at 2008 Predictions http://seekingalpha.com/article/83679-a-mid-year-look-at-2008-predictions?source=feed 83679 Now half-way through the new year, today seems to be as good a time as any to have a look at the predictions for 2008 made back in January.

Just for fun...

]]> 2008-07-03T06:01:08-04:00 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Now half-way through the new year, today seems to be as good a time as any to have a look at the predictions for 2008 made back in January.

Just for fun...


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Bear Market Rally ETFs: Is Capitulation Close? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83672-bear-market-rally-etfs-is-capitulation-close?source=feed 83672

Do you surrender? Do you give in? The rest of the market participants are darn close to doing so.

The problem with the idea of stock market capitulation is that it's nearly impossible to predict. In fact, most of the time, we use 20/20 hindsight to identify it.

]]> 2008-07-03T05:37:09-04:00 Gary Gordon Gary Gordon submits:

Do you surrender? Do you give in? The rest of the market participants are darn close to doing so.

The problem with the idea of stock market capitulation is that it's nearly impossible to predict. In fact, most of the time, we use 20/20 hindsight to identify it.


Complete Story »]]> XME XLF XLB XLE Gary Gordon U.S. Jobs Report Could Be Tipping Point http://seekingalpha.com/article/83656-u-s-jobs-report-could-be-tipping-point?source=feed 83656 Like a bridge over troubled water, the U.S. job market could be finally caving in. At least that is what a raft of recently released employment indicators may be suggesting.

- the Rasmussen employment index, a measure of workers’ views on job security, fell in June to a record low of 78.6
- TrimTabs, which extrapolates U.S. Treasury tax collections, estimates a drop of 133,000 jobs occurred in June (and adds that the acceleration in losses in the last two weeks of the month suggests a plunge of 300,000 jobs in July).
- Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a major payroll processing company, reported a loss of 79,000 private-sector jobs in June (having reported a 142,000 net increase in jobs up to May).

]]> 2008-07-03T05:07:15-04:00 Larry MacDonald Larry MacDonald submits:

Like a bridge over troubled water, the U.S. job market could be finally caving in. At least that is what a raft of recently released employment indicators may be suggesting.

- the Rasmussen employment index, a measure of workers’ views on job security, fell in June to a record low of 78.6
- TrimTabs, which extrapolates U.S. Treasury tax collections, estimates a drop of 133,000 jobs occurred in June (and adds that the acceleration in losses in the last two weeks of the month suggests a plunge of 300,000 jobs in July).
- Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a major payroll processing company, reported a loss of 79,000 private-sector jobs in June (having reported a 142,000 net increase in jobs up to May).


Complete Story »]]> Larry MacDonald Government Bonds: What's the Long-Term Outlook? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83657-government-bonds-what-s-the-long-term-outlook?source=feed 83657 I have been bearish on government bonds since March of this year and have repeatedly warned that they were an overpriced asset class, saying at the time:

… one should be cognizant of the fact that an investment in a 10-year Treasury Note will by definition lock in a total return of 3.5% over the next 10 years. This sounds unsustainable and I find it difficult to see the long-term investment merit of such an investment. Long-dated bond prices could be hit hard once yields adjust to more realistic levels. (See “Long Bonds in Injury Time”, March 28, 2008.)

]]> 2008-07-03T05:01:15-04:00 Prieur du Plessis Prieur du Plessis submits:

I have been bearish on government bonds since March of this year and have repeatedly warned that they were an overpriced asset class, saying at the time:

… one should be cognizant of the fact that an investment in a 10-year Treasury Note will by definition lock in a total return of 3.5% over the next 10 years. This sounds unsustainable and I find it difficult to see the long-term investment merit of such an investment. Long-dated bond prices could be hit hard once yields adjust to more realistic levels. (See “Long Bonds in Injury Time”, March 28, 2008.)


Complete Story »]]> TNX Prieur du Plessis Sarbanes-Oxley: It's Delicious and (Mostly) Good for You http://seekingalpha.com/article/83632-sarbanes-oxley-it-s-delicious-and-mostly-good-for-you?source=feed 83632 On the day Treasury Secretary Paulson calls for tougher banking regulation, it's worth remembering that less than two years ago, the Paulson-backed Committee on Capital Markets Regulation was campaigning for the opposite.

The committee released a report in November 2006 arguing, in part, that financial market oversight needed to be relaxed, otherwise the U.S. -- New York City in particular -- would lose its place as the world's money center. The primary evidence for this argument was that the U.S. share of the IPO market was falling, and the blame for this was placed on Sarbanes-Oxley, everyone's favorite piece of post-Enron legislation.

]]> 2008-07-03T03:44:27-04:00 Zubin Jelveh Zubin Jelveh submits:

On the day Treasury Secretary Paulson calls for tougher banking regulation, it's worth remembering that less than two years ago, the Paulson-backed Committee on Capital Markets Regulation was campaigning for the opposite.

The committee released a report in November 2006 arguing, in part, that financial market oversight needed to be relaxed, otherwise the U.S. -- New York City in particular -- would lose its place as the world's money center. The primary evidence for this argument was that the U.S. share of the IPO market was falling, and the blame for this was placed on Sarbanes-Oxley, everyone's favorite piece of post-Enron legislation.


Complete Story »]]> Zubin Jelveh Is This a Tradeable Bottom? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83615-is-this-a-tradeable-bottom?source=feed 83615

We have had some inquiries about our "Gong Model."  They say that no one rings a gong at the bottom, so our marketing department thought this was a cool name.  This article showed a good description of the last time the Gong sounded.

Many traders are seeking "oversold signals" and calling the bottom.

]]> 2008-07-03T02:22:08-04:00 Jeff Miller Jeff Miller submits:

We have had some inquiries about our "Gong Model."  They say that no one rings a gong at the bottom, so our marketing department thought this was a cool name.  This article showed a good description of the last time the Gong sounded.

Many traders are seeking "oversold signals" and calling the bottom.


Complete Story »]]> SPY QQQQ DIA Jeff Miller Have the Financials Found Their Bottom? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83603-have-the-financials-found-their-bottom?source=feed 83603 Halfway through Wednesday’s session, my screen is once again filled with red. The indices look as if they are poised to take a run at yesterday’s lows.

]]> 2008-07-02T16:14:32-04:00 Bill Luby Bill Luby submits:

Halfway through Wednesday’s session, my screen is once again filled with red. The indices look as if they are poised to take a run at yesterday’s lows.


Complete Story »]]> XLF XLY Bill Luby Today's Payrolls Number - How Bad Will It Be? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83595-today-s-payrolls-number-how-bad-will-it-be?source=feed 83595 Non-farm payrolls for the month of June are due for release this morning, but with the Federal Reserve no longer looking to cut interest rates, will the degree of payroll growth actually have meaningful impact on the U.S. dollar?

The NFP number is being released at the exact same time that ECB President Trichet begins his press conference (3 Potential Outcomes to the ECB Meeting), which means that we could see unusual volatility tomorrow morning. The ECB press conference and the NFP report will either neutralize each other or be a toxic combination for the US dollar.

]]> 2008-07-02T13:41:57-04:00 Kathy Lien Kathy Lien submits:

Non-farm payrolls for the month of June are due for release this morning, but with the Federal Reserve no longer looking to cut interest rates, will the degree of payroll growth actually have meaningful impact on the U.S. dollar?

The NFP number is being released at the exact same time that ECB President Trichet begins his press conference (3 Potential Outcomes to the ECB Meeting), which means that we could see unusual volatility tomorrow morning. The ECB press conference and the NFP report will either neutralize each other or be a toxic combination for the US dollar.


Complete Story »]]> UDN UUP Kathy Lien Just How Bad Was June? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83498-just-how-bad-was-june?source=feed 83498 Paul Kedrosky posted a lovely breakdown of the worst "June" returns on the Dow in history. Although the month was indeed bad, it didn't necessarily feel that way, as we never saw true panic, or capitulation. Instead, we saw stocks slowly bleed it out.

This led us to a month where the S&P500 was -8.60%. In addition, halfway through the year, the S&P now sits at -12.5% YTD. However, for those of us with some sense and a solid game plan, the month wasn't so bad. Why, might you ask? Well, because we saw this coming a mile away.

]]> 2008-07-02T08:31:54-04:00 Market Folly Market Folly submits:

Paul Kedrosky posted a lovely breakdown of the worst "June" returns on the Dow in history. Although the month was indeed bad, it didn't necessarily feel that way, as we never saw true panic, or capitulation. Instead, we saw stocks slowly bleed it out.

This led us to a month where the S&P500 was -8.60%. In addition, halfway through the year, the S&P now sits at -12.5% YTD. However, for those of us with some sense and a solid game plan, the month wasn't so bad. Why, might you ask? Well, because we saw this coming a mile away.


Complete Story »]]> SPX SPY DIA QQQQ COF UNG POT MOS CHK MEE SDS Market Folly 2008 Second Quarter in Review http://seekingalpha.com/article/83505-2008-second-quarter-in-review?source=feed 83505 The market (as measured by the S&P500) extended its losses for the year, down about 3% for Q208. We are now at 1280 in the S&P500, roughly the same level as January 2006. A 10,000 foot view of the market isn't encouraging......with the gasoline prices exorbitantly high, home prices still falling, and the credit markets showing no signs of recovery. To make matters worse the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place (slow growth vs. inflation), and they seem to be "screwed" if they cut interest rates and screwed if they don't (more on the Fed later). Further, we still haven't seen a major black swan for some time (e.g. hurricane Katrina, September 11th). With all the "blood in the streets" is now the time to buy?

The good news is now is a better time to buy than it was last quarter, but the bad news is we could be saying the exact same thing next quarter. My portfolio beat the S&P500 and was up for the second quarter of 2008, but like most people I'm still a little beat up after the horrible first quarter of 2008. I feel strongly that certain investments are better than others right now, and I'll provide more detail on that at the end of this article, but first I'd like to reflect on the second quarter market performance and specifically what has been working and what hasn't.

What's Been Working:Energy stocks have been working. According to this Morningstar link, Energy has been the best performing sector for the quarter (and over the last year). This isn't surprising with names like Massey Energy (MEE) up 144% for the quarter, Petrohawk Energy (HK) up 130%, and Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) up 140%. Considering the ever weakening US dollar and increasing emerging market demand for energy, this trend may well continue.Agricultural commodities have also been working well. For example grains (e.g. corn, soybeans, and wheat) continue to reach amazing new highs, and agricultural stocks like Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) are up approximately 42% and 67% for the quarter, respectively. Similar to energy names, agricultural commodity gains have also been fueled largely by the weak US dollar and increasing emerging market demand. Additionally, recent rain damage to US crops may cause the rapid price increases to continue.Bets against the US Dollar have still been working. For example, the dollar has steadily declined against the Euro over the last 3 years, and it made up no ground over the last quarter.

Some short term trading strategies have been working. Specifically, all the market noise and volatility we've been experiencing this year has created opportunity. For example, I was able to complete a handful of successful short-term options trades during the bear market rally during the first half of last quarter.

What Hasn't Been Working:

Basically, everything else. The worst-performing sector for the quarter was Financials (down around 8% for the quarter). This is no surprise as investment banks continue to write down securities, and the credit markets show no signs of returning to their former glory. I still believe there is more significant downside risk for these stocks.

]]> 2008-07-02T06:34:22-04:00 Mark Hines Mark Hines submits: Well. That wasn't pleasant. The market (as measured by the S&P500) extended its losses for the year, down about 3% for Q208. We are now at 1280 in the S&P500, roughly the same level as January 2006. A 10,000 foot view of the market isn't encouraging......with the gasoline prices exorbitantly high, home prices still falling, and the credit markets showing no signs of recovery. To make matters worse the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place (slow growth vs. inflation), and they seem to be "screwed" if they cut interest rates and screwed if they don't (more on the Fed later). Further, we still haven't seen a major black swan for some time (e.g. hurricane Katrina, September 11th). With all the "blood in the streets" is now the time to buy?

The good news is now is a better time to buy than it was last quarter, but the bad news is we could be saying the exact same thing next quarter. My portfolio beat the S&P500 and was up for the second quarter of 2008, but like most people I'm still a little beat up after the horrible first quarter of 2008. I feel strongly that certain investments are better than others right now, and I'll provide more detail on that at the end of this article, but first I'd like to reflect on the second quarter market performance and specifically what has been working and what hasn't.

What's Been Working:Energy stocks have been working. According to this Morningstar link, Energy has been the best performing sector for the quarter (and over the last year). This isn't surprising with names like Massey Energy (MEE) up 144% for the quarter, Petrohawk Energy (HK) up 130%, and Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) up 140%. Considering the ever weakening US dollar and increasing emerging market demand for energy, this trend may well continue.Agricultural commodities have also been working well. For example grains (e.g. corn, soybeans, and wheat) continue to reach amazing new highs, and agricultural stocks like Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) are up approximately 42% and 67% for the quarter, respectively. Similar to energy names, agricultural commodity gains have also been fueled largely by the weak US dollar and increasing emerging market demand. Additionally, recent rain damage to US crops may cause the rapid price increases to continue.Bets against the US Dollar have still been working. For example, the dollar has steadily declined against the Euro over the last 3 years, and it made up no ground over the last quarter.

Some short term trading strategies have been working. Specifically, all the market noise and volatility we've been experiencing this year has created opportunity. For example, I was able to complete a handful of successful short-term options trades during the bear market rally during the first half of last quarter.

What Hasn't Been Working:

Basically, everything else. The worst-performing sector for the quarter was Financials (down around 8% for the quarter). This is no surprise as investment banks continue to write down securities, and the credit markets show no signs of returning to their former glory. I still believe there is more significant downside risk for these stocks.


Complete Story »]]> MEE HK ANR POT FIG AGU BX RTN PG Mark Hines The Current Bear Market: Death by a Thousand Cuts http://seekingalpha.com/article/83502-the-current-bear-market-death-by-a-thousand-cuts?source=feed 83502 The general stock market behavior recently has been painful, to say the least. Now with DJIA broke below March low, any hope of a quick ending on the current bear market diminishes. Even though the S&P 500 Index has not broken below the March low yet, and even though the market is very oversold at the moment and a rebound before the 4th of July Holiday weekend is possible, the damage is already done. January and March lows will not hold for the current on-going bear market, and we should expect a 2nd leg down leading the S&P toward the $1,100 level.

 

]]> 2008-07-02T06:18:43-04:00 Thomas Tan The general stock market behavior recently has been painful, to say the least. Now with DJIA broke below March low, any hope of a quick ending on the current bear market diminishes. Even though the S&P 500 Index has not broken below the March low yet, and even though the market is very oversold at the moment and a rebound before the 4th of July Holiday weekend is possible, the damage is already done. January and March lows will not hold for the current on-going bear market, and we should expect a 2nd leg down leading the S&P toward the $1,100 level.

 


Complete Story »]]> DIA SPY QQQQ Thomas Tan U.S. Markets: Just How Oversold Are We? http://seekingalpha.com/article/83496-u-s-markets-just-how-oversold-are-we?source=feed 83496

 

Once in a while you get shown the light

]]> 2008-07-02T06:05:58-04:00 Jordan Kahn Jordan Kahn submits:

 

Once in a while you get shown the light


Complete Story »]]> DIA SPY QQQQ Jordan Kahn