MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Friday, May 17, 2013
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9:35 PM Of the €208.2B in non-performing loans Spanish banks have refinanced (in order to avoid recognizing them as NPLs), nearly half are treated as though they are not distressed, dubiously eliminating the need to take provisions against them, FT says. These banks have until September to reclassify restructured loans under tougher guidelines, a mandate that will likely necessitate fresh provisioning at some institutions. Between them, Santander (SAN), BBVA, and Caixabank (CAIXY.PK) had €76B in refinanced debt on their books at the end of last year. [Financials, Global & FX] 2 Comments
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9:17 PM The European investigation (I, II) into oil benchmark pricing raises rarely voiced questions about the appropriate way to set prices. FT notes that Platts' reporters cover 400+ wholesale energy prices everyday and the information available to them is limited to what commodities houses and Big Oil are willing to disclose. The process is complicated by the fact that myriad factors ranging from small discrepancies in quality to the type of hull on transport tankers, make the process inherently subjective. Nevertheless, the ordeal looks quite a bit like the Libor and ISDAFIX probes: a benchmark to which trillions of dollars of assets are tied is determined by key players away from the public eye. [Commodities, Energy] Comment!
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8:42 PM If they "want to succeed in Vietnam, they have to change the way they serve," one customer says of Starbucks' (SBUX) brewing methods at its Ho Chi Minh City flagship store. Of all the markets into which the Seattle coffee giant has ventured, Vietnam may prove the most challenging given the country's rich coffee culture which dates back at least a century. Predictably however, business is good, and Howard Schultz says sales are already exceeding expectations despite locals' penchant for what WSJ describes as a "thick, oily" domestic brew. (Also: SBUX goes to Myanmar) [Consumer] 3 Comments
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8:08 PM Yahoo (YHOO) update: The board will meet Sunday night to decide on a $1.1B all-cash deal for Tumblr, according to AllThingsD. (earlier) [Tech, Breaking News] Comment!
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7:18 PM Yahoo's (YHOO) NYC event will be focused on Flickr updates rather than Tumblr, Bloomberg reports. This, of course, doesn't preclude a Tumblr deal from being announced at some other time. Marissa Mayer reportedly doubled the size of long-neglected Flickr's engineering team last summer, and new Flickr apps have launched to positive reviews. However, Flickr's online photo market share is now well below that of Facebook/Instagram. [Tech] 1 Comment
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7:18 PM Shares of General Motors (GM +3.1%) eclipsed their $33 IPO price as investors speculate that the U.S. government may soon exit its ownership stake in the auto maker. The auto maker rose to $33.42 to close above its November 2010 IPO price for the first time since February 2011. U.S. taxpayers currently hold a 16.4% stake, or 241.7M shares worth about $8.08B. [Consumer, U.S. Economy] 2 Comments
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6:50 PM UniPixel (UNXL -26%) crashed today in the absence of major news. Williams Financial's Cody Acree, who rates shares a Buy: "There were a lot of speculative things today, a lot of which probably got blown out of proportion." Among other things, Acree notes a recent Apple patent application for a large-display touch sensor panel (not a competitive threat), and the fact a 13G filed by Goldberg Capital notes the firm's stake in UniPixel has fallen to 5.25% (Acree says this is only due to dilution from the stock offering). Shares still +99% YTD. [Tech, On the Move] 13 Comments
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6:44 PM If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [U.S. Economy] 3 Comments
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6:35 PM SolarCity's (SCTY +25.7%) big rally is "bubble-like," cautions Raymond James' Pavel Molchanov, who tried to temper enthusiasm about First Solar last month. Molchanov warns a June 11 lockup expiration could "open the floodgates." Credit Suisse also cited the lockup when downgrading shares on Tuesday; the firm estimates the lockup will increase SolarCity's tradable float by 8x-10x. (earlier) [Tech, On the Move] Comment!
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6:28 PM AOL is reportedly laying off ~3% of Patch's 1,400-strong staff and (per a company memo) is giving the oft-criticized local news unit a new CEO. Patch COO Steve Kalin is the division's new chief; current CEO Jon Brod will return to AOL Ventures. AOL asserts the changes are aimed at improving content quality/engagement and allowing Patch to make good on promises it will be profitable by year's end. comScore estimates Patch, bogged by questions over how well a business focused on "hyper-local" content can scale, saw traffic rise 26% Y/Y in April to 13M monthly uniques. [Tech] Comment!
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6:15 PM Caterpillar's (CAT) deal to cut the purchase price of a Chinese mining equipment maker it bought last year ends an embarrassing episode, but now comes the hard part: penetrating China's huge underground mining market. The dispute overshadowed the real importance of giving CAT the product line and distribution it desperately wants in China, the world's top producer and consumer of coal. [Global & FX] Comment!
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6:08 PM Ubiquiti (UBNT) -5.9% AH after filing to sell 7.7M shares on behalf of existing shareholders through a public offering. CEO/NBA owner Robert Pera will be selling 1.7M shares, lowering his stake to 64.4% from 66.4%. Investment firm Summit Partners will be selling 6M, lowering its stake to 10.5% from 17.3%. The filing comes shortly after Ubiquiti closed near its 52-week high, and a week after shares took off in response to a Q1 beat and strong guidance. (S-1) [Tech, On the Move] 1 Comment
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6:08 PM All the chatter about cheap stocks is likely to fall on deaf ears if this "profitless rally" continues, observe analysts at Citigroup. Markets are expected to make further gains supported by moderate EPS growth and dividend increases, but "valuations imply less impressive gains from here," the bank says. In particular, a slowdown would affect two of the most impressive markets the most; the S&P 500 and the Nikkei, which have risen more than 16% and 46% this year, respectively. [Financials] Comment!
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6:00 PM On the hour: S&P +0.97%. 10-yr -0.38%. Euro -0.37% vs. dollar. Crude +0.78% to $95.91. Gold -2.1% to $1357.75. Comment!
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5:52 PM The permit approval for the Freeport gas export project opens up the dam for other pending applications, but the pace of coming decisions is still unknown, analysts say, adding that similar projects building from existing facilities are best placed to secure approval and financing. Meanwhile, Cheniere Energy (LNG) has reaffirmed its operating target date of late 2015 for the export terminal it is building at Sabine Pass, La. [Energy] 6 Comments
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5:46 PM QLogic (QLGC) CEO Simon Biddiscombe has resigned from his position, as well as from the company's board, to "pursue other opportunities." CFO Jean Hu has been named interim CEO while a search commences for a replacement. Biddiscombe became CEO in Nov. 2010, after serving as CFO for two years. QLogic has had a rough time during Biddiscombe's tenure, as both the company and archrival Emulex contended with soft storage adapter card demand and competitive pressures. Shares -2.2% AH. [Tech, On the Move] Comment!
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5:34 PM Though Google's rally and Apple's plunge have received more headlines, Microsoft (MSFT +2.3%) has rallied this month to levels last seen in '07, and in doing so has let Bill Gates pass Carlos Slim to become (once more) the world's richest man. Shares are up 32% YTD as value investors bet enterprise and cloud services strength will offset PC weakness and slow Windows 8 uptake. Microsoft currently trades at 8.6x FY14E EPS after backing out net cash/investments. [Tech] 2 Comments
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5:31 PM Venezuela reportedly will allow its state-owned energy company to form joint ventures with PetroChina (PTR) and Chevron (CVX) to manage $6B in loans designed to reverse declining oil output. Agreements have been reached on terms of a $2B credit from CVX for the Petroboscan venture and a $4B loan from China for Sinovensa. Similar deals may be in the works with Shell (RDS.A) and Repsol. [Energy, Global & FX] 3 Comments
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