MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Today - Sunday, May 19, 2013
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10:30 PM "France, but also Germany, have a special responsibility, as heavyweights in the eurozone, to take seriously the new deficit reduction rules," Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann says, becoming the second official in a week to remind France of its obligation to cut its budget deficit to 3%, even if it takes a few extra years. There is a "certain amount of flexibility" in the rules, Weidmann continues, but their "credibility won't be enhanced if one were to exhaust [that] flexibility right at the start." Translation: Weidmann doesn't want anyone pushing their luck. [Global & FX] Comment!
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10:12 PM The latest installment of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, has some observers worried. Citing "increased competition," banks generally reported easing their lending standards on business loans over the last three months, as razor thin margins have created a scramble for C&I business (previous). Concurrently, the amount of business loans extended rose 10% Y/Y to $1.55T, leading some to question whether the combination of more lending and lax underwriting standards might prove hazardous to the system. Competition "creates the temptation to do silly things," M&T vice-chairman Mike Pinto tells FT. [U.S. Economy, Financials] 1 Comment
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7:48 PM Among those apparently not worried about the fate of the 787 Dreamliner during the first quarter were hedge funds. All told, hedgies spent $1.6B during Q1 buying shares of Boeing (BA), FactSet says. (Also: 787 deliveries begin anew) 3 Comments
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6:34 PM Nokia's (NOK) rumored 41MP sensor Lumia phone, codenamed EOS, will have a polycarbonate body and a display similar to that of the Lumia 920 (4.5," 1280x768 display), a source tells WMPoweruser. The source adds the phone will be lighter than the 920, that its thickness will be on par, and that its camera will sport a xenon flash and a lens cover "that opens when the camera app is started." A new camera app is also said to be on board. The Verge reported in January AT&T will sell the phone; considering T-Mobile is selling the 925, there's some logic to that. [Tech] 19 Comments
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2:09 PM Autodesk (ADSK) is acquiring Tinkercad, a developer of low-cost, web-based, 3D modeling and simulation tools. In tandem with the deal, Autodesk says it will revive Tinkercad's modeling service, which the startup recently said it would discontinue to focus on its supercomputer-powered Airstone simulation environment. Tinkercad's offerings will be added to Autodesk's 123D family of hobbyist-focused 3D design products, which now includes iPad apps. Terms are undisclosed. (other acquisitions: Firehole Composites, PI-VR, Qontext, Inforbix, Socialcam) [Tech, M&A] Comment!
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1:49 PM More on Yahoo/Tumblr: Kara Swisher reports Tumblr founder/CEO David Karp "will stay at Yahoo for four years at least and retain much control over the service." There are concerns about how Yahoo will deal with Tumblr's mountains of adult content without alienating either users or advertisers; Peter Kafka argues they're overblown, since marketers decide which blogs to advertise on. Discussing comparisons between Tumblr and Yahoo's failed 1999 acquisition of Geocities, Tristan Louis notes Tumblr has seen top execs jump ship. But he adds Geocities faltered in part because a flood of ads drove users away; Tumblr seems to be avoiding that pitfall. [Tech, M&A] 4 Comments
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12:25 PM Yahoo's (YHOO) board has approved a $1.1B all-cash deal to acquire Tumblr, the WSJ reports. (previous) [Tech, M&A, Breaking News] 17 Comments
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9:52 AM There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. 41 Comments
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
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6:23 PM 32% of Q1 U.S. smartphone sales involved prepaid phones, up from 21% a year ago, says NPD. That trend could spell trouble for AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD), whose recent growth has been heavily tied to selling costly postpaid data plans. With 72% and 61% of the carriers' postpaid bases now respectively on smartphones, they face pressure to gain prepaid buyers without cannibalizing postpaid subs. Cannibalization fears have led AT&T and Verizon to make their prepaid plans 3G-only; Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS) offer 4G. A mix shift towards unsubsidized prepaid phones could also be a challenge for Apple (AAPL), estimated to have just 8% of the Q1 U.S. prepaid smartphone market (though that's up 4x Y/Y). [Tech] 13 Comments
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3:34 PM Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [U.S. Economy] 17 Comments
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3:14 PM Erickson Air-Crane (EAC) pays $10.1M to purchase five aircraft it once leased. The deal will save the company $3M in annual lease expenses and $12.2M of total future lease obligations. EAC has had a nice run since reporting earnings on May 9 that beat estimates on record revenue. (PR) Comment!
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2:48 PM New home prices in China rose 4.9% from a year ago in April, a faster Y/Y pace than the 3.6% growth witnessed in March. In Beijing and Shanghai, prices rose 10.3% and 8.6% respectively. The data underscore government concerns regarding property inflation and suggest that last month's 13% decline in home sales transaction value was an anomaly tied to developers' rush to supply homes in March ahead of property curbs rather than an indicator that the sector is cooling. On a M/M basis, home prices rose 1% in April. The Chinese Real Estate ETF (TAO) is essentially flat YTD, but up ~43% over 12 months. [Global & FX] Comment!
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11:57 AM "There are only four sources of high-quality maps," Google, Waze, Navteq, and TomTom (TMOAF.PK), says Rolfe Winkler, and given Facebook's rumored $1B acquisition of Waze, TomTom may become an attractive takeover target for the likes of Apple (AAPL) and others who, while able to drive a hard bargain on map licensing fees, may prefer to bid for the Netherlands-based company rather than worry that a rival will acquire it. TomTom trades at an EV/EBITDA ratio of just 6x. (From December: Rabobank puts AAPL/TomTom odds at 30%) [Tech, M&A] 31 Comments
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11:33 AM With Turkish stocks and, by extension, the Turkey ETF (TUR), trading just a shade below all time highs, it's worth looking at the country's fundamentals in the wake of Moody's investment grade blessing (I, II). From WSJ: Debt-to-GDP is just 36% (down 10% in the past three years alone), 2012's budget deficit was a comparatively meager 1.4%, and the country's reliance on foreign currency debt is limited to just 27%. Like the Philippines however, authorities are concerned about the potential for inflows of "hot money": "Investment grade can lead to excessive build up of risk and we may have to look into that," Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek says. [Global & FX] 1 Comment
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9:30 AM Nonperforming loans (as a percentage of total loans) are growing in the eurozone periphery by a disconcerting 2.5% per year, JPMorgan says, adding that the problem appears endemic outside the eurozone core as NPLs are 25%, 19%, 13.4%, and 10% in Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal respectively. This raises questions about the impairment capacity of banks and what steps will ultimately be taken to provision against these underperformers. (Also: Spain's banks to reclassify refies, Slovenia NPLs contribute to downgrade, need to be transferred) [Global & FX] 2 Comments
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9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. [Quick Ideas] 4 Comments
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8:45 AM Newly public ING U.S. (VOYA) is up 20% since its IPO 2 weeks ago, but only trades at 60% of book value compared to the average life insurer (MET, HIG, PRU) selling for near book, writes Andrew Bary. Not only that, but the company is misunderstood - it's more retirement-services specialist and asset manager (think PFG) than life insurer, and should command an even higher valuation. What's more the seller (ING) was forced by regulators to do so against its will, the ING CEO calling it a "significant destruction of capital." Spinoff & Reorg Profiles - rarely a fan of promoted IPOs - think's it's worth $31. With an easily digestible $6B market cap, it might be worth even more to an acquirer. [Quick Ideas, Financials] Comment!
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8:40 AM European Economic Commissioner Olli Rehn is tired of being labeled "as an unworthy person who is almost eating children," a rather fantastical characterization he says is improperly applied to anyone pushing the austerity agenda. In reality, Rehn is agnostic when it comes to economic policy and says he finds much to like in Keynes. Now that the crisis has dissipated (at least in terms of periphery yield spreads) Rehn says there is more "room to maneuver" and countries can pursue budget cuts "at a slower pace." [Global & FX] Comment!
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