MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Thursday, May 23, 2013
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11:05 PM The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out. 7 Comments
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10:04 PM An interesting exercise in the always dangerous practice of extrapolation: A look at this week's H.4.1 update shows the Fed holding $1.583T of outstanding 10-year equivalents or, a record 30.32%. By extension then, only 69.68% remains for the private sector. Currently, the figure is rising ~0.3% per week as Bernanke and company snap up Treasury bonds (TLT, TBT). Were that pace to continue until 2018, the Fed would be in possession of virtually the entire market. Food for thought from ZeroHedge and Stone & McCarthy. 4 Comments
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9:07 PM A rebound in Tokyo sees the Nikkei (EWJ) gaining 3% in early action following yesterday's 7% dive. A weaker yen (FXY) is helping, dollar/yen gaining 0.4% to ¥102.37. 3 Comments
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5:55 PM Serious overcapacity in China's steel industry is unlikely to ease in 2013, which could continue to hamper steel prices (SLX), analysts say at Platts Steel Market Europe conference. China is set to produce ~750M metric tons of crude steel in 2013 while capacity will rise to 950M, putting heavy pressure on steel prices in Europe and in the world steel industry as a whole. 4 Comments
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3:25 PM China's exports of rare earth metals have rallied in recent months, a trend attributed to low rare earth prices and Japanese demand. But Molycorp (MCP -2.9%), whose shares have jumped 30% in the past two weeks, says it might be premature to assume a firm turnaround in global demand: "Inventories have been built up over the past several years, and they are returning to more normal levels now." 4 Comments
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3:01 PM Agency MBS fail to bounce from the "massive liquidation" following Bernanke's testimony yesterday, according to CIBC's Tom Tucci. Suggestions of a tapering of Fed purchases sent Fannie Mae MBS with 3% coupons to their lowest levels of the year. "Right now it seems the only source of demand is the Fed," says BAML's Brad Scott. Unsurprisingly, pure agency mREITs like AGNC and ARR hit 52-week lows today. Annaly (NLY) - now diversified into the commercial space with the CXS purchase - outperforms. 12 Comments
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2:46 PM Gold's sharp rise today can be attributed to the dollar's drop vs. the yen; when the dollar drops, gold should rise, as their correlation during the past 24 days has hit -86%. A stock sector that's standing out is emerging market gold miners: South Africa’s Sibanye (SBGL), Harmony (HMY) and AngloGold (AU), plus Peru's Buenaventura (BVN) are stronger, even as their corresponding country ETFs (EZA; EPU) are in the red. 5 Comments
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1:13 PM The "Too Big To Fail" subsidy is a myth, according to Goldman research which shows the banking industry (XLF) is about the only one in the U.S. where the larger firms pay higher funding costs than the smaller ones. It may be so now, but the TBTFs had a large funding advantage amid the financial crisis and have paid an average of 31 basis points less than their smaller brethren over the last decade. 1 Comment
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12:50 PM The defensive utility sector (XLU -1%) isn’t looking very safe at the moment, as the break below the 50-day moving average suggests further weakness in the days ahead. Technician Ralph Acampora sees the break as a short-term sell for the Dow Jones Utility index but also a longer-term positive for the broader market as investors rotate out of defensive sectors and into more economically sensitive stocks. 1 Comment
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12:04 PM Stocks have mostly erased big early losses, with the Dow (DIA, DOG) just nosing into the green - its outperformance a result of H-P's 14% jump. The S&P 500 is off 0.3% and the Nasdaq off 0.1%. 5 Comments
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11:55 AM "The Real Bubble is Gold: and It's Deflating," writes MKM's Mike Darda, who says the key turning point was the metal's (GLD. IAU) failure to rally in wake of last fall's QE∞ inception. "Investors simply took it at face value that gold was soaring and would continue to rise because of (the Fed)." Inflation picking up will be even worse for gold, he says, as this would make the Fed an aggressive tightener of policy. 16 Comments
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11:20 AM Coal (KOL) has been gaining on natural gas in U.S. power generation, but coal producers aren't enjoying the benefits, buffeted by headwinds including increased regulations. Simmons analysts say most coal names do not screen as cheap, and the firm sees near-term volatility as investors trade around macro events; its sector favorites are Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) and Walter Energy (WLT). 9 Comments
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10:19 AM Off the lows. Forty-five minutes into the session finds stocks posting just moderate losses. S&P 500 (SPY -0.7%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.4%) - with Apple a notable gainer, +0.7%. George Soros' reflexitivity: Worry of tapering sends stocks lower, thereby lessening chances of tapering. 2 Comments
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10:12 AM The ProShares High Yield-Interest Rate Hedged ETF (HYHG) starts trading today joining the likes of HYLS and THHY. The fund will short Treasurys to offset its exposure to high-yield corporate debt and comes with an expense ratio of 0.50% - significantly lower than THHY (1.45%) and HYLS (1.19%). Comment!
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10:07 AM More on New Home Sales: The March print was revised sharply higher - to 444K from 417K. April sales were 2.3% higher than March and 29% higher than a year ago. The median sales price was $271.6K, the average $330.8K. Inventory stands at 156K, representing a supply of 4.1 months. Homebuilders ETF (XHB -0.4%). (full report) Comment!
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9:54 AM Launching this week is the Barclays ETN + FI Enhanced Global High Yield ETN (FIGY), focused - as its name implies - on high yield stocks around the world. Also coming to market is the Barclays ETN + FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN (FEEU) - composed of 50 European blue-chippers, making it similar to the Stoxx Europe 50 ETF (FEU). Comment!
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9:21 AM WisdomTree (WETF) tumbles 5.2% premarket following Japan's overnight crash. The stock's more than a double this year as money has poured into its Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ), which is off 7.3% premarket. Another yen-hedged Japan fund - Deutsche's far smaller DBX ETF Trust (DBJP) - is off 8.3%. Comment!
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9:14 AM An upward revision to Q1 GDP did little for stocks in Singapore (EWS) as the Straits Times tumbles 1.77% to its lowest level in in two weeks amid global selling. Across the region: Thai equities (THD) fall 1.5%, amid "caution" before next week's central bank meeting (on down days it's "rate cut caution" on up days its "rate cut speculation"), Malaysian shares (EWM) drop 0.61% in Kuala Lumpur, and Philippine stocks (EPHE) sink 0.96% in Manila, erasing three quarters of a two-day rally. Comment!
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8:40 AM More on jobless claims: The big decline nearly erases last week's large and unexpected jump, and will do nothing to ease concern about "tapering." The 4-week moving average is little-changed at 339,500. S&P 500 futures remain lower by 0.95%, but bond prices continue to give up some of their big early gains, TLT +0.3%. 3 Comments
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7:02 AM "I'll take 'Kiss of Death Magazine Covers' for minus 7%, Alex," tweets a clever fellow as this week's The Economist cover shows Japan PE Shinzo Abe flying through the air like Superman. DXJ -6.9% premarket. 5 Comments
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