Today - Tuesday, December 10, 2013
7:22 AMDeutsche slashes oil price outlook
- Booming U.S. production and the prospect of easing supply disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa has Deutsche Bank cutting its 2014 estimate for WTI crude by a whopping $10 per barrel to $88.75. At the moment, WTI is at $98.50, up 1.2% on today's session.
- "We see the growing risk of an oil supply glut developing," says Michael Lewis, the bank's head of commodity research.
- Any dip in price may be temporary though, as Deutsche expects OPEC to cut production to defend prices - a move likely to be successful, says the bank, due to its upbeat outlook for world growth.
- Deutsche is also dour about the refiners, noting the current capacity glut is growing thanks to rapid and sizable expansions in Asia and the MIddle East. The industry would need to shut about 2M barrels/day of refining capacity (2% of the market) to balance the market, says the bank.
- Crude ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DBO, DTO, BNO, CRUD, USL, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, UOIL, DOIL, OLEM, TWTI
7:10 AMFutures nudge higher
- Stock index futures are higher by 0.1% following yesterday's quiet session which saw Treasury exit its stake in GM and Twitter fly by nearly 10% to a post-IPO high.
- Europe's ahead moderately and Asia was little-changed overnight.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is off 2 basis points to 2.82%, and gold is up by 1% to $1,246.30.
- Index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IVE, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, QID, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, QLD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, IVW, SPYG, RPG, SPYV, BXUB, RPV, QQEW, VOOG, QQQE, VOOV, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, FTA, BXDB, TNDQ
4:50 AMU.K. trade deficit falls, industrial output rises
- The U.K.'s total trade deficit narrowed slightly to £2.62B in October from £2.64B in September.
- The goods deficit fell to £9.73B from £10.1B and was above forecasts of £9.35B. The surplus of services was £7.1B. (PR)
- As expected, industrial production +3.2% on year vs +2.2% in September.
- On month, output +0.4% in October v +0.9% in September and forecasts +0.3%.
- Manufacturing production +2.7% on year vs +0.7% and +2.9%.
- On month, output +0.4% vs +1.2% and +0.4%. (PR)
- The pound is +0.05% to $1.6437, while the FTSE is +0.1%.
- ETFs - Stocks: FKU, EWU, EWUS, DXPS. Currency: GBB, FXB.
3:33 AMDetails of Volcker rule set to be unveiled
- A panoply of regulators are due to disclose the details of the Volcker rule this morning and then formally adopt the measures later in the day.
- The new regulations will ban banks from proprietary trading, and prevent them from owning over 3% of hedge funds and private-equity funds.
- Banks fear that the rules could cost them billions of dollars by making it more difficult to engage in activities that are permitted under the regulation, such as market-making, underwriting and hedging against risks. Expect the lawyers to go through the proposals to see what could be struck down in court.
- Tickers: C, JPM, MS, WFC, BAC, COF, GS, BK, USB
- ETFs: FAS, XLF, FAZ, UYG, KRE, KBE, VFH, IYF, SEF, IAT, IYG, PFI, FXO, KBWB, RKH, QABA, RWW, KRU, FINU, KBWR, RYF, PSCF, FNCL, KRS, FINZ
2:24 AMChina's industrial output slows a bit
- Growth in China's industrial production slowed to 10% on year in November from 10.3% in October and just missed consensus of 10.1%.
- However, retail sales accelerated to +13.7% from +13.3% and topped forecasts that were also +13.3%.
- Urban investment, an indicator of construction spending, +19.9% vs +20.1% and +20%.
- The mixed data comes as Chinese officials start an annual central economic work conference, where they will set goals and policies for next year. Last month, the country's leaders agreed on a massive reform program aimed at liberalizing and re-balancing the economy.
- ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, HAO, CYB, YINN, CNY, TAO, CHIQ, CHIX, MCHI, YANG, PEK, CQQQ, XPP, QQQC, DSUM, ASHR, YAO, CHXX, CHII, FXCH, CHXF, ECNS, CHIE, YXI, CHIM, KWEB, KFYP, TCHI, CHLC, FCA, CHNA