Today - Tuesday, December 10, 2013
2:57 PMLibyan oil ports set to reopen on deal for greater regional oversight
- Libyan oil ports are set to reopen next week after months of closure, thanks to a new agreement on greater regional oversight of oil sales proceeds, but a key rebel leader says he would oppose the deal if broad revenue distribution isn't devolved to the country's provinces.
- The closed ports include Brega, Es-Sider, Marsa al-Hariga and Zueitina, which together account for more than half of Libya's crude oil exports for companies such as Total (TOT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Hess (HES) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
- The months of unrest have led to a drop in oil production from ~1.6M bbl/day to ~250K bbl/day, putting the government's finances in jeopardy, and disruptions to Libyan crude supply have been one of the main factors underpinning the consistently high cost of Brent crude.
- ETFs: BNO UOIL, DOIL.
2:27 PMIndia car industry limps along
- Car sales in India for November moved down 8.2% Y/Y as demand in the nation continues to weaken.
- The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers doesn't expect a significant turnaround until a new government is in place which can put in measures to support the industry.
- Automakers active in India: Maruti Suzuki (SZKMF), Tata Motors (TTM), Renault (RNSDF), BMW (BAMXY), Volkswagen (VLKAY), Toyota (TM), Hyundai (HYMLF).
7:48 AMVolkswagen reports 3% rise in global sales for November| Comment!
7:11 AMPositive read on China auto demand| Comment!
7:05 AMItaly ends two years of contraction
- Italy has technically exited a recession that lasted two years, with GDP having stopped contracting on a quarterly basis in Q3 and Q2, new data shows.
- The economy showed no change in those periods; the figures were revised up from -0.1% and -0.3% respectively.
- On year, though, GDP was -1.8% in Q2 and Q3.
- The improvement was helped by an inventory buildup, which is an indicator of growing confidence among businesses.
- However, a government official cautioned that "it's too early to say that the recession is finished."
- The FTSE MIB is +0.3% and the euro is flat at $1.3744. (PR)
5:20 AMGlobal equities mixed following Chinese, European data
- Asian shares fall after Chinese economic data fails to excite investors, with industrial output slowing but retail sales accelerating. Comments from the Fed's James Bullard saying that the bank could start tapering this month may have dampened the mood as well.
- The Nikkei takes a breather and drops 0.3% following a jump of 2.3% yesterday.
- European share are higher in the wake of mixed economic figures, with industrial production in France surprisingly falling but rising and beating consensus in the U.K. and Italy.
- Hong Kong -0.3%, China -0.03%, India -0.3%.
- EU Stoxx 50 +0.2%, London +0.1%, Paris +0.2%, Frankfurt +0.3%, Milan +0.2%, Madrid +0.6%.
- U.S. stock futures: Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%
4:50 AMU.K. trade deficit falls, industrial output rises
- The U.K.'s total trade deficit narrowed slightly to £2.62B in October from £2.64B in September.
- The goods deficit fell to £9.73B from £10.1B and was above forecasts of £9.35B. The surplus of services was £7.1B. (PR)
- As expected, industrial production +3.2% on year vs +2.2% in September.
- On month, output +0.4% in October v +0.9% in September and forecasts +0.3%.
- Manufacturing production +2.7% on year vs +0.7% and +2.9%.
- On month, output +0.4% vs +1.2% and +0.4%. (PR)
- The pound is +0.05% to $1.6437, while the FTSE is +0.1%.
- ETFs - Stocks: FKU, EWU, EWUS, DXPS. Currency: GBB, FXB.
2:24 AMChina's industrial output slows a bit
- Growth in China's industrial production slowed to 10% on year in November from 10.3% in October and just missed consensus of 10.1%.
- However, retail sales accelerated to +13.7% from +13.3% and topped forecasts that were also +13.3%.
- Urban investment, an indicator of construction spending, +19.9% vs +20.1% and +20%.
- The mixed data comes as Chinese officials start an annual central economic work conference, where they will set goals and policies for next year. Last month, the country's leaders agreed on a massive reform program aimed at liberalizing and re-balancing the economy.
- ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, HAO, CYB, YINN, CNY, TAO, CHIQ, CHIX, MCHI, YANG, PEK, CQQQ, XPP, QQQC, DSUM, ASHR, YAO, CHXX, CHII, FXCH, CHXF, ECNS, CHIE, YXI, CHIM, KWEB, KFYP, TCHI, CHLC, FCA, CHNA
Monday, December 9, 2013
3:02 PMThis year's best performing single-country ETFs
- Previously beaten down values and tech describe this year's list of best-performing single country ETFs. Numbers 5&6 are the iShares MSCI Finland Capped ETF (EFNL) and the iShares MSCI Denmark Capped ETF (EDEN), each up about 35%.
- Keeping with the beaten down theme are numbers 4&2 - both Japan funds hedged against shifts in the value of the yen, WisdomTree's DXJ and Deutsche's DBJP, up 38% and 44% respectively. Number 3 comes from another left-for-dead market, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (EIRL).
- Leading the list is PowerShares' Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ), which holds China N-Shares - U.S.-listed Chinese firms, i.e, tech, i.e., Internet. It's up 58% YTD.
1:21 PMCarney bullish on U.K. and global growth
- "For the first time in a long time it seems reasonable to expect the hopes and dreams of the holiday season to be fulfilled," says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in a NY speech. "The Ghost of Christmas Present is a cheerful spirit. As uncertainty diminishes, credit conditions improve and balance sheet repair progresses, monetary policy is gaining traction."
- Not buying the "secular stagnation" thesis of many, Carney says there's little reason to believe developed economies can't recover to past growth rates.
- The pound continues to head higher, now up a whopping 16 handles since Carney took the BOE reins in July and has been unexpectedly hawkish since.
- Cable is buying $1.6406 at the moment. Above $1.70 would take it back to summer-2008 levels.
- U.K. and pound ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK
12:54 PMStatoil makes Arctic oil find in boost for Johan Castberg project
- Statoil (STO +0.9%) discovers as much as 50M barrels of oil at its Skavl prospect in the Barents Sea, in a boost to its delayed Johan Castberg project.
- Skavl, the third well in a drilling campaign of at least five wells, is the first crude discovery in a campaign of exploration to strengthen the Castberg project, which was delayed after costs and taxes rose and because of uncertainty over resource estimates.
12:49 PMJefferies, Deutsche Bank initiate Eros International at Buy
- Jefferies and Deutsche Bank are bullish on Eros International (EROS +0.6%), initiating shares at Buy with $14 and $20 PTs respectively.
- Jefferies analyst Randal Konik: "Eros is a pioneer in Indian filmed entertainment that is well positioned to capitalize on multiple growth opportunities within India and globally. This is a company that provides exposure to a growing industry in an expanding economy at what we view as a favorable valuation."
11:34 AMEni reopens flow stations on key Nigeria pipeline
- Eni (E +0.3%) is reopening flow stations on a key Tebidaba-Brass oil pipeline in Nigeria that was sabotaged over the weekend; the pipeline normally carries 75K bbl/day of high-quality Brass grade for export.
- The Nigerian army said locals had blown up parts of the pipeline in a dispute with the company, so Eni shut the flow stations serving the pipe.
- Oil theft occurs frequently on the line, which was shut down for months earlier this year.
10:43 AMThai shares firm amid political turmoil| Comment!
9:46 AMAudi gets aggressive| Comment!
9:05 AMLufthansa to strive for profits via frequent flyer reorganization| Comment!
8:57 AMPetrobras could raise fuel prices in 2014, CEO says
- Petrobras (PBR) could raise fuel prices next year, CEO Maria das Gracas Foster says, after a new mechanism to bring domestic prices in line with international levels was implemented.
- The inability to push through automatic fuel price adjustments has raised questions about Foster's future at the company, but she says she "definitely had not" considered resigning; she also denies a rift between her and Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who also serves as PBR's chairman and has said any increases to domestic fuel prices can't stoke inflation.
8:47 AMOil Search in talks to join InterOil, Total in Papua New Guinea project
- Oil Search International (OIS) says it is in talks about getting involved in development of the Elk and Antelope oil discoveries in Papua New Guinea, which may contain more than 5T cu. ft. of natural gas.
- Just three days ago, InterOil (IOC) agreed to sell a majority interest in the discoveries to Total (TOT) in a deal worth up to US$3.6B, depending on how much gas is confirmed to be there.
- TOT had hinted at a selldown when confirming the deal with IOC but didn’t name a prospective partner; one way to facilitate OIS’s entry into Elk-Antelope could be an equity swap involving part of its stake in the Taza oil and gas discovery in Iraq's Kurdistan.
- IOC +4.8%, TOT -0.6% premarket.