MARKET CURRENTS
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MARKET CURRENTS
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Friday, May 17
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9:35 PM Of the €208.2B in non-performing loans Spanish banks have refinanced (in order to avoid recognizing them as NPLs), nearly half are treated as though they are not distressed, dubiously eliminating the need to take provisions against them, FT says. These banks have until September to reclassify restructured loans under tougher guidelines, a mandate that will likely necessitate fresh provisioning at some institutions. Between them, Santander (SAN), BBVA, and Caixabank (CAIXY.PK) had €76B in refinanced debt on their books at the end of last year. 6 Comments
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6:15 PM Caterpillar's (CAT) deal to cut the purchase price of a Chinese mining equipment maker it bought last year ends an embarrassing episode, but now comes the hard part: penetrating China's huge underground mining market. The dispute overshadowed the real importance of giving CAT the product line and distribution it desperately wants in China, the world's top producer and consumer of coal. Comment!
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5:31 PM Venezuela reportedly will allow its state-owned energy company to form joint ventures with PetroChina (PTR) and Chevron (CVX) to manage $6B in loans designed to reverse declining oil output. Agreements have been reached on terms of a $2B credit from CVX for the Petroboscan venture and a $4B loan from China for Sinovensa. Similar deals may be in the works with Shell (RDS.A) and Repsol. 3 Comments
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4:44 PM It looks like investors will have to wait for any supersized dividend from Gazprom (OGZPY.PK). Citigroup analysts say the Russian gas giant will pay a dividend of 5.99 rubles/ADR, or ~25% of net income according to Russian accounting standards; investors had been hoping the company would pay 25% of net income based on international financial reporting standards. (earlier) 3 Comments
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3:46 PM The yen (FXY -0.9%) legs down to a new multi-year low - the dollar now buying ¥103.24 - continuing a truly remarkable move since late last year. It's an instance where politicians told you they were going to devalue, every trader and strategist around told you they were shorting the yen, and sure enough the yen went down ... hard, and in as straight of a line as markets ever allow. Ah, if it were always that easy. Other ETFs: JYN, YCL, YCN. 4 Comments
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1:31 PM Fitch downgrades Slovenia by one notch to BBB+, outlook Negative (the country is still worthy of an investment grade rating apparently) citing, among other factors, "a significant divergence between official and Fitch estimates of bank recapitalization costs." Recall that NPLs at state-controlled banks sum to nearly 30% of total loans (total NPLs at ~20% of GDP), and many of these will need to be transferred to a state-run "bad bank." (Previously: Moody's takes Slovenia into junk territory) Comment!
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12:53 PM The bull move in the greenback (UUP, UUPT) is just getting started, writes Vince Cignarella, believing the dollar's about to get another boost from safe-haven flows. The catalyst will be a selloff in fixed income taking yields on junk bonds (HYG, JNK) - now at all-time lows - to more realistic levels. The catalyst for the catalyst? It won't be 2007 all over again, he says, but instead maybe the dreaded "tapering" move from the Fed, or perhaps Syria flaming up higher. Comment!
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11:23 AM Impax Laboratories (IPXL -1.2%) says its Generic Division, Global Pharmaceuticals, has begun shipping its generic drug Zomig, which is used for the treatment of migraines in adults, as part of a licensing and distribution agreement with AstraZeneca (AZN). Comment!
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10:27 AM The call option otherwise known as National Bank of Greece (NBG +19.2%) soars again, now closing in on being a 4-bagger in a month. The capital raise plan has been approved - though surely dilutive, it keeps the bank privately-owned - and an upgrade cycle has begun for the country and the banking system. The Greek ETF (GREK +3.1%). Comment!
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10:10 AM China says it will encourage investment in vehicle manufacturing in the western part of the nation to reverse a prior decision on the issue. General Motors (GM +2.5%) and Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK) could benefit from the development due to their aggressive expansion plans in the region. Comment!
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9:56 AM The U.K.'s Serious Fraud Office says it is "urgently reviewing" whether it has the authority to investigate allegations of price fixing in the oil market, after unannounced inspections earlier this week by EU antitrust authorities of BP, Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Statoil (STO). The SFO believes it could be the appropriate body to investigate such allegations. 5 Comments
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9:38 AM Did the Fed tighten while we were getting a cup of coffee? The greenback is soaring against all other currencies, with the dollar bull ETF (UUP) gaining 0.6% - an unusually large move for that vehicle. Strength against the yen (FXY -0.3%) and the aussie (FXA -0.9%) are givens of late, but the greenback is up about 1% vs. both the loonie (FXC) and the swissie (FXF), and about 0.6% vs. the euro (FXE) and cable (FXB). Getting hit are Treasurys (TLT -0.5%), the dollar bear ETF (UDN -0.6%) and of course, gold (GLD -0.7%). 5 Comments
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9:26 AM Thai stocks (THD) rise 0.62%, helped by 7% gains for Shin Corp. (SHNZY.PK) and Minor International (MNILF.OB) which will both be added to the MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) index. Elsewhere in the region, stocks in Indonesia (IDX) rise 1.32%, continuing to defy analysts' predictions (I, II) of a steep sell-off, and post-midterm election profit-taking continues in the Philippines (EPHE), where stocks fall 0.42%. Comment!
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9:13 AM Big beer companies including Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Molson Coors (TAP), SABMiller (SBMRY.PK), Heineken (HINKY.PK), and Constellation Brands (STZ) support legislation that they say would take away some of the advantages craft brewers have on excise taxes. While separating the big boys like A-B from smaller local players is pretty easy, things get more confusing when trying to label brewers such as Boston Beer (SAM) and Craft Brew Alliance (BREW) with indy roots. What to watch: Though sluggish beer volume in the U.S. is a major concern, the battle over excise taxes could be just as big for bottom lines. Comment!
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8:56 AM Workers in Angola are completing construction of the strongest crane in Africa, with a capacity to lift 2,500 metric tons, to be used at offshore projects for Chevron (CVX), Total (TOT) and SBM Offshore. The second phase of CVX’s $5.6 billion Mafumeira Sul project is expected to produce 110K bbl/day by 2015, and TOT’s Clov project may start pumping crude next year. Comment!
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8:50 AM Russia's economy expanded by 1.6% in Q1 (consensus was for 1.2% growth), marking the fifth straight quarter of decelerating growth. As in Japan, business investment is weakening even as private consumption remains steady. The problem: demand for commodity exports from the world's largest energy exporter is flagging amid a seemingly intractable recession in the eurozone — the currency bloc accounts for ~50% of Russian trade. Russian stocks (RSX), which are the cheapest among 21 EMs according to Bloomberg, are trading 1.8% higher but are still off ~5% YTD. 1 Comment
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8:37 AM First the move then the news? The euro takes a quick tumble, dropping about 50 pips to $1.2821. There's not much in the news other than the recycling of an old story Germany's Constitutional Court might reject the ECB's OMT plan, and chatter the central bank has been calling around to float the idea of negative deposit rates. FXE -0.5% premarket. Comment!
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7:58 AM The head of a major South African mining union threatens to bring the country's economy "to a standstill" and demands a meeting with President Zuma, ramping up the rhetoric in a long and heated conflict between labor and the government. But a strike seems averted for at least another day, as top platinum producer Amplats (AGPPY.PK) says employees reported for today's shifts as normal. Comment!
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7:32 AM Turkish stocks (TUR) hit record highs after the country receives it first investment grade rating from Moody's in two decades (previous). The move comes 6-months after Fitch blessed Ankara with an investment grade nod for the first time since 1994. Yields on the country's two-year bonds hit a record low 4.63% Friday on the news. Comment!
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7:29 AM Copy the Goldman aussie forecast to the yen - its quick tumble also forcing the team to revise lower its already bearish forecasts. The analysts now see the dollar buying ¥110 twelve months out vs. ¥105 previously. The yen's (FXY) marginally stronger this morning, the dollar buying ¥102.40. Comment!
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7:26 AM The fast slide in the aussie catches even the bearish Goldman currency team off-guard, and it's forced to revise lower its 12-month forecast for the currency - now $0.90 vs. $0.98 previously. The reasons are well-known to anyone paying attention: A deteriorating Australian economy and lower commodity prices. FXA -0.4% premarket and the aussie is buying $0.9755. Comment!
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7:16 AM Shanghai (FXI, CAF) completes its biggest week in 4 months, up 1.4% overnight as the government slashes red tape for certain investment projects. A total of 117 "approval items" - including gas fields, airports, and paper pulp - can now move forward without getting an "Ok" from Beijing. Comment!
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7:12 AM More on European car sales (previous): The 18-month losing streak for sales on the continent is over as Daimler (DDAIF.PK) and Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK) show double-digit growth with both putting in strong months in the U.K. and solid showings in Germany. Of the Japanese automakers, Nissan (NSANY.OB) made the most forward progress. 2 Comments
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5:56 AM UBS upgrades global financials to Overweight from Underweight on a healing global economy, rebuilt capital, and the sector's shift "from being a net issuer to a net distributor of cash." Furthermore, the U.S. banking sector (XLF) is taken to Overweight as balance sheet strength and attractive valuations play well with the housing market recovery to create compelling opportunities. European banks (EUFN) are lifted to Neutral "with a preference towards Nordic and U.K. banks." Financials respond in London with LLoyds Banking Group (LYG) +2.3%, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) +3.3%, and Barclays (BCS) up 0.5%. 5 Comments
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5:25 AM New car registrations in Europe rise 1.8% in April, breaking a horrendous streak of monthly declines that dates back to September of 2011. However, even a cursory glance at the numbers reveals that the devil (as always) is in the details. U.K. auto sales jumped 15%, logging their best month since 2008. Stripping out that rather anomalous (at least in terms of the regional big picture) data point shows the European car market contracting again, albeit by a small margin. Comment!
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4:31 AM Real, inflation adjusted wages at nonprivate Chinese companies (state-owned and public enterprises) grew 9% in 2012, up from 8.5% in the previous year, while real wages in the private sector rose 14%. On a nominal basis, wages grew at a double-digit pace even as the pace of economic growth decelerated. While the data show the country is continuing to push towards establishing "a normal wage increase system," manufacturers could feel the heat should wage growth continue to outpace economic growth going forward. Comment!
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