Monday, December 9, 2013
3:02 PMThis year's best performing single-country ETFs
- Previously beaten down values and tech describe this year's list of best-performing single country ETFs. Numbers 5&6 are the iShares MSCI Finland Capped ETF (EFNL) and the iShares MSCI Denmark Capped ETF (EDEN), each up about 35%.
- Keeping with the beaten down theme are numbers 4&2 - both Japan funds hedged against shifts in the value of the yen, WisdomTree's DXJ and Deutsche's DBJP, up 38% and 44% respectively. Number 3 comes from another left-for-dead market, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (EIRL).
- Leading the list is PowerShares' Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ), which holds China N-Shares - U.S.-listed Chinese firms, i.e, tech, i.e., Internet. It's up 58% YTD.
1:21 PMCarney bullish on U.K. and global growth
- "For the first time in a long time it seems reasonable to expect the hopes and dreams of the holiday season to be fulfilled," says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in a NY speech. "The Ghost of Christmas Present is a cheerful spirit. As uncertainty diminishes, credit conditions improve and balance sheet repair progresses, monetary policy is gaining traction."
- Not buying the "secular stagnation" thesis of many, Carney says there's little reason to believe developed economies can't recover to past growth rates.
- The pound continues to head higher, now up a whopping 16 handles since Carney took the BOE reins in July and has been unexpectedly hawkish since.
- Cable is buying $1.6406 at the moment. Above $1.70 would take it back to summer-2008 levels.
- U.K. and pound ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK
12:54 PMStatoil makes Arctic oil find in boost for Johan Castberg project
- Statoil (STO +0.9%) discovers as much as 50M barrels of oil at its Skavl prospect in the Barents Sea, in a boost to its delayed Johan Castberg project.
- Skavl, the third well in a drilling campaign of at least five wells, is the first crude discovery in a campaign of exploration to strengthen the Castberg project, which was delayed after costs and taxes rose and because of uncertainty over resource estimates.
12:49 PMJefferies, Deutsche Bank initiate Eros International at Buy
- Jefferies and Deutsche Bank are bullish on Eros International (EROS +0.6%), initiating shares at Buy with $14 and $20 PTs respectively.
- Jefferies analyst Randal Konik: "Eros is a pioneer in Indian filmed entertainment that is well positioned to capitalize on multiple growth opportunities within India and globally. This is a company that provides exposure to a growing industry in an expanding economy at what we view as a favorable valuation."
11:34 AMEni reopens flow stations on key Nigeria pipeline
- Eni (E +0.3%) is reopening flow stations on a key Tebidaba-Brass oil pipeline in Nigeria that was sabotaged over the weekend; the pipeline normally carries 75K bbl/day of high-quality Brass grade for export.
- The Nigerian army said locals had blown up parts of the pipeline in a dispute with the company, so Eni shut the flow stations serving the pipe.
- Oil theft occurs frequently on the line, which was shut down for months earlier this year.
10:43 AMThai shares firm amid political turmoil| Comment!
9:46 AMAudi gets aggressive| Comment!
9:05 AMLufthansa to strive for profits via frequent flyer reorganization| Comment!
8:57 AMPetrobras could raise fuel prices in 2014, CEO says
- Petrobras (PBR) could raise fuel prices next year, CEO Maria das Gracas Foster says, after a new mechanism to bring domestic prices in line with international levels was implemented.
- The inability to push through automatic fuel price adjustments has raised questions about Foster's future at the company, but she says she "definitely had not" considered resigning; she also denies a rift between her and Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who also serves as PBR's chairman and has said any increases to domestic fuel prices can't stoke inflation.
8:47 AMOil Search in talks to join InterOil, Total in Papua New Guinea project
- Oil Search International (OIS) says it is in talks about getting involved in development of the Elk and Antelope oil discoveries in Papua New Guinea, which may contain more than 5T cu. ft. of natural gas.
- Just three days ago, InterOil (IOC) agreed to sell a majority interest in the discoveries to Total (TOT) in a deal worth up to US$3.6B, depending on how much gas is confirmed to be there.
- TOT had hinted at a selldown when confirming the deal with IOC but didn’t name a prospective partner; one way to facilitate OIS’s entry into Elk-Antelope could be an equity swap involving part of its stake in the Taza oil and gas discovery in Iraq's Kurdistan.
- IOC +4.8%, TOT -0.6% premarket.
8:36 AMTullow Oil comes up dry in Ethiopia well
- Tullow Oil (TUWLF, TUWOY) says it will plug and abandon the Tultule-1 wildcat well in the South Omo block in Ethiopia as a dry hole.
- The well reached a total depth of 2,101 meters and was targeting a reservoir section similar to the sands drilled in the nearby Sabisa-1 well, where oil shows were encountered, but these sands were not penetrated in Tultule-1.
5:18 AMAsian stocks higher, Europe mixed
- Asian shares rise following strong U.S. jobs data last week, as well as better-than-expected export data from China and inflation that remains relatively tame.
- U.S. stock futures are also higher, albeit not by much, while European shares are mixed.
- Japan +2.3%, Hong Kong +0.3%, Shanghai +0.05%, India +1.4%.
- EU Stoxx 50 -0.05%, London -0.1%, Paris -0.2%, Frankfurt +0.3%, Milan +0.4%, Madrid +0.5%.
- U.S. stock futures: Dow flat. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.15%
3:14 AMGerman trade surplus falls
- Germany's trade surplus dropped to a seasonally adjusted €16.8B in October from €18.7B in September and missed consensus of €18B.
- Exports rose 0.2% on month, sharply down from +1.6% in September but above forecasts of +0.15%.
- Unadjusted exports increased 0.6% to a record €99.1B, a figure that may add strength to those in Europe who have criticized Germany for relying too much on foreign trade.
- Adjusted imports +2.9% vs -1.9% and +1.6%.
- Current account surplus €19.1B vs €20B. (PR)
- The DAX is +0.4% and the euro is flat at $1.3708.
2:58 AMChina inflation edges closer to 2% handle
- China’s CPI will likely break below 3% in December and fluctuate towards mid-2% in Q1, Reorient analyst Steve Wang notes. CPI eased to 3% in Nov. as food inflation slid to 5.9% from 6.5%. "Unless food prices, especially meat and vegetables, surge beyond reason during the coming holiday season... China faces minimal inflation risk in the months ahead."
- "Non-food CPI was again a non-event at 1.6%, but the strong housing market is beginning to sting, with rental inflation edging higher to 4.7%, the highest in nearly a year and half," suggesting policymakers will likely maintain existing curbs on property markets in order to stem the spillover effect of high housing prices on inflation.
- ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, HAO, CYB, YINN, CNY, TAO, CHIQ, CHIX, MCHI, YANG, PEK, CQQQ, XPP, QQQC, DSUM, YAO, ASHR, CHXX, CHII, FXCH, CHXF, ECNS, CHIE, YXI, CHIM, KWEB, KFYP, TCHI, FCA, CHLC, CHNA
2:55 AMJapanese Q3 GDP growth weaker than first thought
- Japan's Q3 GDP has been revised down to +0.3% on quarter from a previous estimate of +0.5% and +0.5% in Q2.
- On year, GDP +1.1% vs +1.9% and +1.9%. (PR)
- Bank lending +2.2% in November vs +2% in October. (PR)
- Current account deficit ¥127.9B ($1.24B) in October vs surplus of ¥587.3B in September and consensus of ¥153B. (PR)
- "A downward revision in capital expenditure was what weighed on the revised figures," says RBS Securities Japan chief economist Junko Nishioka. However, the figures mark the bottom of the capex cycle, Nishioka says. "I expect capital spending to return to a recovery trend in the October-December quarter," she predicts.
- The Nikkei is +2.3% and the USD-JPY is +0.2% at ¥103.05, with the stock index and the dollar boosted by the strong U.S. jobs report on Friday.
- ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, JGBS, JGBD, DFJ, JYN, NKY, DBJP, EZJ, EWV, YCL, SCJ, JSC, JPP, JGBL, ITF, DXJS, JGBT, JPNL, JPNS, FJP