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Does one hand know what the other is doing at Morgan Stanley (MS)? On Monday, the firm issued...
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011, 11:55 AM ETDoes one hand know what the other is doing at Morgan Stanley (MS)? On Monday, the firm issued this call: Get Long Emerging Markets for the 39% Rally, China's Soft Landing Will Be Dandy. On the same day, it said this: Recession Likely, Sell Stocks and Risk Assets, Overweight Cash and Bonds. Which Morgan Stanley should we listen to?
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"The odds of recession in the US and
the rest of the developed world are
uncomfortably high. So, on Oct. 6, we
moved to an overweight position in safe
havens and an underweight position in
risk assets."
So the developed world looks like a mess, emerging markets look poised for a soft landing. Risk off in the former, risk on in the latter. It seems the main point of confusion is the formerly associated "riskiness" of emerging markets, which, when compared to developed markets, all of a sudden looks a lot less risky. It would be interesting to see exactly why they think emerging markets are poised to outperform, given the interconnected, globalized marketplace.
Has anybody learned anything?