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UndiversifyBC Comments (47)
 
I think a greater than expected slowdown in China is likely.

I believe the bulk of their GDP is related to Fixed Asset Investment, mostly infrastructure and housing related construction, and Manufacturing for Export and I don't see how either of those will be growing very much.

Yeah, the Govt can throw money at the problem via stimulus but the overcapacity in construction already and the increased pricing out in mfg makes ROI on that stimulus vs possible return of inflation a very tough call.

Frankly, though Europe is a concern, related to financial market problems I'm more worried about China than the EU.
18 Dec 2011, 03:48 AM Reply Like

Stone Fox Capital Comments (2872)
 
Possibly. Have any plans changed on the plays to construct all the low income housing projects? China still has a lot of demands for new housing and now material prices are cheaper.
18 Dec 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like

LKofEnglish Comments (4388)
 
how are interest rates doing? soaring?
18 Dec 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like

SanDiegoNonSurfer Comments (1602)
 
"the Govt can throw money at the problem via stimulus"

Every bit of news I've seen on this for the past couple years has been about China tightening down on their overheated real-estate sector. I haven't seen a single thing about a current "stimulus" for real estate. Have you?
18 Dec 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like

LKofEnglish Comments (4388)
 
no, i haven't. in fact "the explicit case for jacking up rates was to deal a fatal blow to the inflation problem." the seem to have succeeded! Indeed "even Brazil is lowering interest rates" causing words like "SHOCKED" to appear in the financial press. Here's a question: is there a single equity market outside of the DJIA up in dollar terms right now?
18 Dec 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like

LKofEnglish Comments (4388)
 
once the Communist Party "skips town" then "the gig is up." Sure "the music keeps playin" but "the bar owner fled with the loot and is long gone."
18 Dec 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like

0rly Comments (21)
 
I think China may slow down short term, but it might just be a buying opportunity if the markets get overly worried about it: http://bit.ly/rFnQC9
18 Dec 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like

Stone Fox Capital Comments (2872)
 
Look for big cuts in reserve ratios.
18 Dec 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like

FCARONE Comments (43)
 
China's RE boom was nothing more than a quick get rich maneuvers by speculators. In many instances the maneuvers turned into manure as developers and corrupt Chinese regulators ( police and government politicos) took their cut early and then left the market to the risk takers. Banks eagerly and greatly enabled the process while the government looked the other way. The result was a bubble that is now deflating. Such banks are now loaded with soured and /or defaulted loans. Doesn't this sound like the USA? Its China also, and any country that uses real estate for speculative, short term ( flipping) trades. It always ends badly, with innocent parties left to pick up the pieces.Greed and corruption have no boundaries!
18 Dec 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like

LKofEnglish Comments (4388)
 
quite the clampdown on "social media" going on there as well. hmmm. wonder where they got that idea from......
18 Dec 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like

Moon Kil Woong Comments (8207)
 
This is actually good for China. The government has been trying to stop a bubble in Chinese Real Estate for a long time now.
18 Dec 2011, 06:07 PM Reply Like

FCARONE Comments (43)
 
As is the case with all governments , they're late to the party.
18 Dec 2011, 08:07 PM Reply Like

Spencer Knight Comments (267)
 
It's going to be difficult for most people to believe China will fail. But as we know, nothing is too big to fail and continuous government corrections will narrow the path the country can grow. Eventually the Mack truck will come upon a tiny tunnel.
18 Dec 2011, 10:41 PM Reply Like

dividend_growth Comments (1854)
 
Expect major commodities crash.

If China doesn't reflate their real estate bubble, everything from Aluminum to Coal to Potash to Zinc will plunge into the abyss.
19 Dec 2011, 02:21 AM Reply Like