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Today's mobile ecosystem wars bear similarity to the 1990s operating system wars which, like...
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Saturday, January 7, 2012, 5:36 PM ETToday's mobile ecosystem wars bear similarity to the 1990s operating system wars which, like now, had a "winner-take-all flavor," writes Holman Jenkins. Netscape and antitrust regulators changed all of that - could Apple's (AAPL) cloud move (and again antitrust) do the same? "The future may be friendlier to Blackberry (RIMM), Nokia (NOK), and Windows Phone (MSFT) than it now appears."
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This news story has 16 comments:
Anti-trust changed nothing, it was Firefox and later Chrome which forced IE to develop to standards.
Why does the current not mention Android, which has far more market share in new phones sold than any of the others, including Apple?
Android even runs on top of an operating system built in the 90s, Linux, which along with Apple still exists now.
This entire current is way off the mark, and given there's a paywall on wsj.com it's hard to know if it's SA or if it's the original article.
Android market share is 50%, cost $0: 50% x $0 = $0.00
Apple market share is 15%, cost $$$: 15% x $$$ = $$$
It's a different software model, don't be fooled into thinking there's no value in it, especially in undermining the locked down world apple's trying to create. The same software model practically dominates the web server world as well as a lot of other server systems. It made quite a large number of very expensive unix installs unnecessary.
Google's model on this is to make money from the ad revenue as users are driven to them via android's search, not to mention google has the nexus line of devices which is directly generating revenue.
And I honestly doubt that Google is making any money on their Nexus phones. Who care about making revenue. Anyone can make revenue. It's profit that matters in the business world. Nexus Profit - Cost = $0, or maybe even negative. Think Kindle Fire profit margins.
My group of friends were HEAVY into their Samsung Android phones, but they will soon be switching over to Apple shortly. Their androids are buggy and not 100% working, and they have limited apps. Way too many Android phone options out there, promoting inner competition. (think ford/mercury sister cars) Sets Apple apart into it's own league.
Are you aware of the concept of a loss leader? Android is precisely that and from that they're getting ad revenue. You think it doesn't matter but Google are an advertising company. Tech is their way of getting the ad revenue.
I'm curious though, what is your source for the nexus calculations? I'm suspecting that's being pull out of ... nowhere.
Your friends may be switching away from android phones, but I know people who are going the other direction, and the signup numbers show it. They're not even tech people either, those who had been using Apple phones and now want to try something different.
Where are these numbers showing Apple iPhone users switching to Free / Cheap Android phones? I highly doubt that is the case. You know the saying: Once you go Apple, you never go back.
Ok, so you just said: "those who had been using Apple phones and now want to try something different" - well that's like fixing something that's not broken. What's the point? You want to use some 4Gs so you can drain your battery faster? Switching from an iPhone to an Android reminds me of my one ex gf - crazy.
I'm saying you're misinterpreting the point of Android. It's not to directly create revenue for Google. It's to make sure no one else creates a system where they can be locked out of access to search mobile/tv market. i.e. preventing Apple from tying Safari to bing for example. (See development of the chrome browser to prevent that).
I've never heard anyone use "Once you go Apple, you never go back." as a saying, and by the result from google, it's because no one has said it. They redirect to "Once you go mac, you never go back." which also isn't true. I currently own a macbook pro, won't be buying another for reasons of it not being as good as I want in certain areas (development). Having said that Mac and the iPhone very different devices, and the differences between Windows and Mac are far greater than the differences between the iPhone and an Android device.
You're shooting down 4G, but will you still be doing that when apple release a 4g phone? They will do it, they'll have to, and it's not like apple is new to battery usage issues (a cheap shot, I know, but I couldn't let it go :) ).
I want to see more competition, whether it's from Apple, Google, whoever. I think it's great for consumers. I'm just saying that I think you might be underestimating android by dismissing it for it not directly creating revenue, and I think you're ignoring the reality of android's market by dismissing it as only for discount phones. Is this what you really want to do as an investor? Emotions do not trump reality.
Reality is Apple's iPhone is looked at as more of a luxury item and Android as more of a commodity. Apple has created a simple phone buying structure whereas there's a plethora of Android phone options that are a bit all over the place.
You said: "the point of Android. It's not to directly create revenue for Google. It's to make sure no one else creates a system where they can be locked out of access to search mobile/tv market." - That's like comparing Pepsi (Android) to Coke (Apple). Pepsi is thinking that people will like a second (and cheaper) option, but most people want the Coke. They don't want to compromise their refreshment experience.
One of the bigger complaints a friend had, besides his Android phone's GPS not working, was that Android stopped doing software upgrades for his phone. His phone was no longer supported. End Game. I know you can say the same thing about the iPhone 3G (not S) iPhones, but technically Apple still sends out iOS software updates. It might not be able to run the latest iOS5, but it will still get security / firmware / bug fixes. Point is, the wonderful Android open-source-world has left people in the dark.
Besides all of this going back and forth, I have to add that China loves Apple. My Chinese coworker goes to Hong Kong & Shanghai multiple times per year and says that the Chinese cannot get enough Apple Products. And recently, the Hong Kong government had too much money in its coffers, so what did they do? They gave about $700USD to all Hong Kong residents. Guess where that money is going?? ...Apple.
Chinese people love, love, love luxury products. And that's what they consider Apple to be.
In the long run, the American & European mobile market shares will probably be a moot point compared to what the Chinese market will eventually become.
Oh, and one last thing about the non-tech savvy people getting Androids. I think that's fine. It's safe to say that as time goes on society as a whole gets more tech savvy, so I don't think Apple is losing much ground there. I mean, there are always people out there that won't use a smartphone to its full potential, just like many of my older family members.
Having your cell phone paid for is a benefit, that not everyone has, but these days, getting a Blackberry for free, and having to carry it around would be like getting a OSHA approved helmet at a construction site. You may need one to work, but it's an unpleasant experience.
I recommend NOK calls strike at 7.00 exp. 9/12.