Market Currents
When you look at the basic fundamentals, stocks are trading at their cheapest levels since 1990,...
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Monday, January 23, 2012, 8:10 PM ETWhen you look at the basic fundamentals, stocks are trading at their cheapest levels since 1990, observes Bespoke Investment Group. According to the firm’s 2012 outlook report, once investors realize it, the ensuing buying spree should push the S&P 500 by 11% to 1,400, or possibly even more, by the end of the year.
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What bull.
Lets see some of the world debt problems get solved, starting with the USA not the EU, and then lets have this talk.
And by the way, regarding the U.S.'s debt problem, LOTS of people have been talking about this for years, that we're about to collapse under a mountain of debt, but if this were true, then why are interest rates 2% for 10 year U.S. gov't bonds? While it's 20%+ for Greece and 10%+ for Portugal. What do you know that the multi-trillion dollar global market for U.S. gov't debt doesn't know? And by the way, what's the right way to evaluate the creditworthiness of a country, or a corporation, or a small business, or anyone? By the absolute amount of debt they have? Of course not. Maybe the bond market knows something you don't.
You may want to consider that there's more to all this than the way you're looking at it.
The second these analysts start trying to outdo each other to the upside, you know a crash is soon coming. I remember when people were saying GOOG would hit 800-1000.
Trillion dollar deficits, crony capitalism, bailouts, loss of freedoms and liberties - those things weren't present when comparing to events 20 years ago.
Buy solid companies paying out cash to shareholders. Everything else is a crapshoot (and lets face it the whole macro environment is a crapshoot since government is involved in everything these days).
Also, don't fight the Fed. You don't have to agree with them, but you do have to understand their impact, and in the short-term (the next year or so), that is to give free money to banksters and prop up equities.
I don't think 2012 will be another crash year. 2013 maybe, but not 2012.
Chart-wise we are over the late October highs whether we deserve to be or not and the S&P is close to giving a 'golden cross'. Eyeballing the chart with my one remaining good eye does seem to point to 1400-1425 but whether we'll hit that in the 11+ remaining months of this year is a different story. JMHO.
Economies run in cycles, and elections are usually 2 to 4 years out of phase with what the economy would do anyway. So basically what you have to do is look at the previous term, not the current one.
Gotta wonder what will "work" once rates can't/won't go considerably lower.
run for your lives.
save yourselves
sell, sell, sell
go on.
sell, sell, sell
retest the March '09 lows here we come.
sell, sell, sell
Armageddon is nigh. Europe = hopeless. US = broke
sell, sell, sell
E
sell your garbage into the strength and upgrade.
E
30%? haha, not so good at math. but the idea is to not worry about market ups and downs with good cash paying value stocks, right? because eventually, the good ones come back up, even if it takes one or two years. in the meantime, you have income. And obviously better yields. theoretically.