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Timothy Geithner is still talking in Davos (previous) - now moving on to China and the...
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Friday, January 27, 2012, 7:22 AM ETTimothy Geithner is still talking in Davos (previous) - now moving on to China and the "formidable challenge" posed by the artificially-low yuan. He maintains that it's critical to get China to move on the exchange rate and "dialing back subsidies."
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This is only partially true. It's not just about salaries and benefits. One of America's main advantages is its logistical superiority, which can make some of the manufacturing worth doing here. I'm not saying that all of those jobs will return, but some certainly will. Even if those jobs were moved to Mexico, it would still indirectly benefit the US.
If China appreciates its currency by 25-40%, other emerging countries (India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.) will be forced to do the same because of inflationary pressures. In all likelihood, the dollar would depreciate against these currencies as well. In the end, I think we'd see companies taking a more balanced approach, which would mean keeping more of their operations at home.