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Tuesday, Aug 20
Nokia estimated to have 87% of WP8 base; Bernstein downbeat about Q3
- AdDuplex states Nokia (NOK -1.6%) hardware accounts for 74% of all Windows Phone (MSFT +1%) devices tracked by its ad network. For Windows Phone 8 hardware, that number rises to 86.9% (up 150 bps from July).
- The Lumia 520's popularity has much to do with those figures. The low-end phone (Wal-Mart sells a variant for $130 unsubsidized) accounted for 18% of all tracked WP devices, and 27% of WP8 devices, easily the most of any model. The high-end 920 is #2 with respective shares of 11% and 17%, and the mid-range 620 #3 with 9% and 14%.
- "At this rate, Nokia will be the only Windows Phone OEM by the holidays," says TechCrunch's Alex Wilhelm after surveying the data. He argues the figures are evidence of limited WP support from other OEMs. "Microsoft’s mobile efforts are fully dependent on Nokia’s action. This is disconcerting..."
- Meanwhile, Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, a long-time Nokia bear (previous), argues declining Lumia ASPs (the 520 has much to do with this), tough competition, and slowing high-end smartphone demand could yield a "disastrous" Q3 for Nokia.