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Friday, Aug 23
New Home Sales at 394K
July New Home Sales:
vs. 487K expected, 455K prior (revised).
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AZ Desert Trader
and there goes the balloon
23 Aug, 10:04 AM
I wonder what the conference room in Jackson Hole sounds like right now?
23 Aug, 10:11 AM
Rates go up, housing goes down. Never saw that one coming. Thankfully the same relationship doesn't exist between rates and economic growth!
23 Aug, 10:14 AM
Yes lots of small talk in Jackson Hole right now....like..."see..I told you so"..they are so smart....Ivy league you know
23 Aug, 10:28 AM
Satirical "Fed Speak"... "Interest rates are only rising because the economy is getting stronger. We can't taper yet because the economy is not strong enough."
23 Aug, 10:34 AM
Wow. Now that's a miss!
23 Aug, 10:35 AM
The story to be told in upcoming months is the impact the big percentage change in interest rates is going to have on an economy as fragile as this one. So many economists and strategists have argued that the move from 1.60% to 2.90% on the ten year was not going to significantly impact the economy because nominal rates are still historically low. Yes a 4 1/2% mortgage may still represent a historically low rate but the 100-150 basis point rise in that rate is going to negatively impact housing in a significant way. Initially, you get a bump in home purchases as those contemplating buying a home rush in for fear of even higher rates. Beyond this rush of buyers, comes a big drop off as we saw today and are likely to see in the months to come. All those criticizing the Fed for all the QE and the zero interest rate policy do not seem to realize that without it, the economy would be so much worse. The Fed may still pursue a very modest taper in September but in upcoming months they are going to be forced to reverse themselves and instead ramp up QE to much higher amounts. The global economy is still marching toward a deflationary bust. There is no sustainable economy just ahead.
23 Aug, 11:07 AM
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