real-time news and commentary for investors
Tuesday, Sep 3
Strategists remain underweight stocks
- BAML's Sell Side Indicator - meant as a contrarian read as it tracks the average weighting strategists are recommending for stocks - rose to 52.9 in August. While on the rise (it's a 16-month high), the weighting is still on the low side and thus seen as bullish for stocks going forward.
- As comparison, the read at the March 2009 bottom was slightly above the level seen last month. In late 2007, it rose to nearly 67%. The indicator printed an all-time low of 43.9% in July 2012 with the DJIA (DIA) around 13K and the S&P 500 (SPY) near 1,300.
- The long-term average stock weighting is in the 60-65% range.
- Plugging the data into her models, BAML's equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian sees a 17% return for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Her current year-end target is 1,750 (vs. today's 1,640).
- Index ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOG.