- Given the huge market shares Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Tokyo Electron (OTCPK:TOELF) stand to have in a many chip/display equipment verticals post-merger, antitrust regulators are expected to closely scrutinize the $29B deal. Top chip manufacturers such as Intel, Samsung, and TSMC could be among those to object to it, at least in the absence of some asset sales.
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Gartner estimates Applied (14.4% share) and Tokyo (11.1% share) had over 1/4 of the global chip equipment market between them in 2012. ASML is assigned a 12.8% share, Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) 7.4%, and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) 6.5%.
- If the deal goes through, it should bring some tax benefits on account of the post-merger company's plans to incorporate in The Netherlands (ASML's home turf). A source tells the FT the combined company will have a tax rate of just 17%.
- Some analysts see the merger, like other recent deals, being motivated by the chip equipment industry's secular challenges. "It's all cyclical and no growth," remarks S&P's Angelo Zito.
- Unsurprisingly, Applied offers a more positive take, arguing demand for cutting-edge mobile chips and the industry's race to commercialize EUV lithography (expected in the second half of the decade) presents growth opportunities for companies with superior products. Pac Crest made a similar argument yesterday, while recommending Applied, KLA, and Lam.
- Gartner thinks chip equipment sales will fall 8.5% in 2013 to $34.6B after dropping 16.1% in 2012. But it also sees sales gradually rising to $49.1B in 2017.
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