real-time news and commentary for investors
Monday, Nov 4
Strategy for the nimble headed into jobs on Friday
- "If the market was too confident about September tapering six weeks ago, it may be too confident about March tapering now," write the strategists at BAML, suggesting traders position themselves for a big payroll number on Friday - short 10-year Treasurys (TLT), long dollars (UUP), particularly vs. the yen (FXY), and long volatility (VXX).
- "The balance of risks going into Friday is unusually asymmetric," writes the team, noting a weak number will be discounted as a temporary shock from the shutdown, but a strong print will have the market pricing in a December or January taper.
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, FSA, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL.
- Dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, UUPT, UDNT.
- Yen ETFs: FXY, YCS, JYN, YCL.
- Volatility ETFs: VXX, UVXY, TVIX, XIV, VIXY, SVXY, VXZ, ZIV, VIXM, VQT, XVZ, VIIX, CVOL, VIXH, ACWV, XVIX, PHDG, XXV, TVIZ, IVOP, VIIZ.