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"One of my favorite generational shorts is Apple (AAPL)," said bond guru Jeff Gundlach last...
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Friday, March 9, 2012, 11:11 AM ET"One of my favorite generational shorts is Apple (AAPL)," said bond guru Jeff Gundlach last night at a CFA dinner, as reported by CNBC's Jane Wells. "The rainmaker is gone, and I don't see people lining up all night for iPad 482."
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He wants to short a stock with ACTUAL profit growth that's barely trading at P/E in the low teens ?? Good luck with that.
If he has been shorting this at any time over the 3 years it cant have gone well. But perhaps him being a bond guru is a new position from the short technology stock guru.
People went nuts over just the announcement that on March 7 they will talk about the next Ipad. People get so worked up on news that news is coming about this company!
When that stops happening I'll start thinking about maybe sell off.
If only APPL had cash in the bank and people with vision to figure out what the best future technologies will be so they could buy the cutting edge firms in these areas, then I would consider buying this overvalued (10x EPS ex-cash) company.
(note heavy sarcasm)
and Apple isn't only iPads.. Go Apple!
I'm long calls and re-building my nest-egg..
If margin's don't compress then this stock is still a screaming value in the year's ahead. It is an amazing money machine but you are assuming that nothing will go wrong in the years ahead. It's possible, I suppose.
Without Job's at the helm the idea that a "glitch" could happen is a legitimate concern. The last time he was not around was the last time the company went down hard.
According to the biography, he was quite upset when the stock price went up during that period.
Jobs was a great dreamer who was a major influence on the company. But he wasn't exactly the adult in the room that made the company what it is today.
I wouldn't underestimate Tim Cook and the rest of the team.
Not sure how far back your memory goes on this stuff but Jobs was fired/resigned from Apple in 1985/86 and then was brought back in 1996 when the company was on the verge of bankruptcy with the acquisition of Next.
While he was gone the company was nearly run into the ground by John Sculley. That was the period I was referring to in my post above.
Tim Cook may be very good but I don't think he is a Steve Jobs or he would have already been a Steve Jobs. He seems more operational than inspirational and that may or may not be a bad thing depending upon the bench strength at Apple.
http://bit.ly/wUoi2M
I think Steve was an exceptional talent and not easily replaced if at all so I am not as sanguine about the future of innovation at AAPL as you and the rest of the posters appear to be. However, they could coast for a few years on the work put in by Steve before his death.
Having said, I would never have the guts to short the stock nor would I recommend it.
The well known history of Apple's "tween steve" is a plus going forward. AAPL has a great corporate memory, and is not known for making the same mistake(s) twice.
"find it in your heart to recommend stock"
I said I wouldn't recommend shorting the stock. That would be borderline crazy. Based upon current PE it seems like a screaming buy but not for me.
'Actually, the last time Jobs was not around was when he took his first sick leave.'
I wasn't lecturing anyone about anything but apparently none of you have the emotional detachment to evaluate Apple as an investment rationally. Offering counter-points to the bullish case is healthy but you can ignore it if you want. The medical leaves were short-lived and insignificant from a long-term point of view but the death of Steve is akin to his absence from the company the first time around.
Steve's return to Apple's helm in 1996 began perhaps the most amazing turnaround of any corporation in history. It is beyond remarkable. I think his talent was singular but that's my opinion.
What I find interesting about all of the above is that it reflects both Apple's strength and weakness: the passion it arouses among its users. As a buyer of the products that is fantastic as a shareholder and investor that is questionable.
Good luck. I hope it reaches a $1000 or more.
Maybe there is a few million more like me.
Maybe adult training pants?
It is those "fixed income" dudes who blew up the cds bubble that ruined our economy. Back in 1979, I invented such derivatives as an intellectual exercise and I begged the professors not to introduce the demons to wall street. Those meager mortals did it out of greed.
We must have faith in cosmic justice for humanity. Jobs did it!
China growth is going to be huge if the new iPhone is compatible / a deal is sorted with china mobile later this year.
I hope this guy bets the farm and CNBC follows suit. burn baby burn.
Online Pre-Orders were all gone in hours. And this was after Apple booked every square inch of freight space from China to fill every jumbo jet available with the device to service pre-orders.
This is someone who knows how to play games with stocks and bonds, understands little charts and so on, but appears to have but the faintest clue about how and why people are using technology to enhance their lives.
So long as Apple keeps true to its mantra of thinking about the customer first, middle and last, they will do just fine.
'Ooh! Mom.. Microsoft is releasing Security Patch 2478.34X on Thursday. Can we get in line today? Can we? Pleeease!'
Product Guy in final review with His High Eminence, The Great Lord Ballmer:
PG: And here's our new Tablet. The WinTab
GLB: Change the name. To Microsoft WinSlate XP 370 Home Edition
PG: Great Idea GLB
GLB: Where's the freakin' buttons? There's no buttons!
PG: iPad doesn't have buttons and we thought.....
GLB: iPad? iPad for chrissakes. That piece of $800 crap for nancyboys and women? Get buttons on this thing. Now.
PG: Super, GLB!
GLB: Where's the freakin' Start icon? I can't see the Start icon!
PG: There isn't one. We deliberately left it off because...
GLB: You left it off? Are you nuts? How is anyone gonna find the freakin' Control Panels? the Program menus? How you gonna find a list of the programs you got runnin,? Am I the only one who understands this stuff?? Get a Start button. Now. Bottom left.
PG: Super GLB
And as the sun slowly sets over Redmond, the Great Lord Ballmer lies back in his leather-bound Louis Vuitton Executive Relaxer, puts his Gucci clad feet up on his solid jojoba desk, turns on Richard Cleyderman and the Tijuana Brass on his Special Edition Gold Zune and sips his first chilled Bollinger of the day. It's been a good day... sorted out the Microsoft WinSlate XP 370 Home Edition (Great Name! Great!) and sent a message to those insufferable prats down in Cupertino that Redwood was Back! Back I tell you! Or did I mean Redmond?