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"One of my favorite generational shorts is Apple (AAPL)," said bond guru Jeff Gundlach last...

  • Friday, March 9, 2012, 11:11 AM ET
    "One of my favorite generational shorts is Apple (AAPL)," said bond guru Jeff Gundlach last night at a CFA dinner, as reported by CNBC's Jane Wells. "The rainmaker is gone, and I don't see people lining up all night for iPad 482."
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This news story has 31 comments:

  • His corpse would have long decayed before AAPL launches iPad 482 (which btw, in case he's still napping inside his cone of distortion, is just called "iPad" from now on)

    He wants to short a stock with ACTUAL profit growth that's barely trading at P/E in the low teens ?? Good luck with that.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Lol, well put!
    9 Mar 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • A correction is needed. One of his POTENTIAL generational shorts.
    If he has been shorting this at any time over the 3 years it cant have gone well. But perhaps him being a bond guru is a new position from the short technology stock guru.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • LOL! Not a good idea.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • I forgot Apple had so much debt in its balance sheet, bond GURU! I'd love to see that short as actual, real money, top bet in his portfolio.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • He should stick to bonds. If he raises an equity fund, short THAT
    9 Mar 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • AAPL might be a different company years from now, one that doesn't necessarily rely on the iPad line in which case he would be comparing a napple and a norange.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • I do see people lining up for anything AAPL throws their way, that´s why, even as much as I´d like to short it, I´m staying away from it, look at the iPad, they changed basically nothing (]better resolution, wow), ask people WHY they bought it, I haven´t got many logical responses, people are sheep, but I still won´t short it.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • One indicator I use is the media and blogosphere hype over announcements of dates for announcements.
    People went nuts over just the announcement that on March 7 they will talk about the next Ipad. People get so worked up on news that news is coming about this company!

    When that stops happening I'll start thinking about maybe sell off.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • I didn't see single invention from Apple since few years now (Siri is not Apple invention), and don't forget that there is no "One more thing" any more so of course that the % e people exited about Apple will be decreasing every year
    9 Mar 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • You're 100% right pirota, Siri is not an AAPL invention.

    If only APPL had cash in the bank and people with vision to figure out what the best future technologies will be so they could buy the cutting edge firms in these areas, then I would consider buying this overvalued (10x EPS ex-cash) company.

    (note heavy sarcasm)
    9 Mar 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • I agree Gundlach should stick to bonds...
    and Apple isn't only iPads.. Go Apple!
    I'm long calls and re-building my nest-egg..
    9 Mar 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Apple's PE is low because the margins are so high relative to other comparables so therefore the stock is valued on its growth discounted by some type of margin compression expectation in the future.

    If margin's don't compress then this stock is still a screaming value in the year's ahead. It is an amazing money machine but you are assuming that nothing will go wrong in the years ahead. It's possible, I suppose.

    Without Job's at the helm the idea that a "glitch" could happen is a legitimate concern. The last time he was not around was the last time the company went down hard.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Actually, the last time Jobs was not around was when he took his first sick leave.

    According to the biography, he was quite upset when the stock price went up during that period.

    Jobs was a great dreamer who was a major influence on the company. But he wasn't exactly the adult in the room that made the company what it is today.

    I wouldn't underestimate Tim Cook and the rest of the team.
    9 Mar 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • John,

    Not sure how far back your memory goes on this stuff but Jobs was fired/resigned from Apple in 1985/86 and then was brought back in 1996 when the company was on the verge of bankruptcy with the acquisition of Next.

    While he was gone the company was nearly run into the ground by John Sculley. That was the period I was referring to in my post above.

    Tim Cook may be very good but I don't think he is a Steve Jobs or he would have already been a Steve Jobs. He seems more operational than inspirational and that may or may not be a bad thing depending upon the bench strength at Apple.

    http://bit.ly/wUoi2M

    I think Steve was an exceptional talent and not easily replaced if at all so I am not as sanguine about the future of innovation at AAPL as you and the rest of the posters appear to be. However, they could coast for a few years on the work put in by Steve before his death.

    Having said, I would never have the guts to short the stock nor would I recommend it.
    9 Mar 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • @Wisdumb: "comparables" is the operative word in your misunderstanding. There are none.
    The well known history of Apple's "tween steve" is a plus going forward. AAPL has a great corporate memory, and is not known for making the same mistake(s) twice.
    9 Mar 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • I think you missed John's point, and he probably didn't need the lecture. Funny you don't find it in your heart to recommend stock in arguably the most successful corporate operation available.
    9 Mar 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mike,

    "find it in your heart to recommend stock"

    I said I wouldn't recommend shorting the stock. That would be borderline crazy. Based upon current PE it seems like a screaming buy but not for me.

    'Actually, the last time Jobs was not around was when he took his first sick leave.'

    I wasn't lecturing anyone about anything but apparently none of you have the emotional detachment to evaluate Apple as an investment rationally. Offering counter-points to the bullish case is healthy but you can ignore it if you want. The medical leaves were short-lived and insignificant from a long-term point of view but the death of Steve is akin to his absence from the company the first time around.

    Steve's return to Apple's helm in 1996 began perhaps the most amazing turnaround of any corporation in history. It is beyond remarkable. I think his talent was singular but that's my opinion.

    What I find interesting about all of the above is that it reflects both Apple's strength and weakness: the passion it arouses among its users. As a buyer of the products that is fantastic as a shareholder and investor that is questionable.

    Good luck. I hope it reaches a $1000 or more.
    9 Mar 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • I am very confidant that Steve Jobs prepared Tim Cook to run apple like a well oiled machine. Steve Jobs knew his days were numbered due to his horrible battle with cancer. The torch was passed to Tim Cook so Steves vision can live for many years to come at apple.This company is not only liquid, but holds many patents and products already in the making. We have yet to see what apple can do.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • This guy should stick to bonds. Evidently he has never visited an Apple store.
    9 Mar 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Astonishing. He may correct in a few years but shorting AAPL now seems rather silly.
    9 Mar 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Don't bet the farm on that short. I bought two new iPads yesterday, but I'm trained enough now so I order online and don't stand inline.
    Maybe there is a few million more like me.
    9 Mar 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff can say all the negatives he wants about Apple and Jobs. Im making a lot more bank on my shares of AAPL than he could even dream of making off the bond market
    9 Mar 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • I've been reviewing WIN 8 prototype slates. Relative to these, AAPL has no product whatsoever unless you are in middle school.
    10 Mar 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • For "generational shorts", I guess iPad means SANITARY NAPKIN!
    Maybe adult training pants?
    It is those "fixed income" dudes who blew up the cds bubble that ruined our economy. Back in 1979, I invented such derivatives as an intellectual exercise and I begged the professors not to introduce the demons to wall street. Those meager mortals did it out of greed.
    We must have faith in cosmic justice for humanity. Jobs did it!
    10 Mar 2012, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • Jobs has set up apple to continue to innovate. he and the apple board are not afraid to leap across industries and constantly evolve.

    China growth is going to be huge if the new iPhone is compatible / a deal is sorted with china mobile later this year.

    I hope this guy bets the farm and CNBC follows suit. burn baby burn.
    10 Mar 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Just back from Shanghai and the Apple Store was mobbed even before the new release.
    10 Mar 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • He doesn't see people lining up to buy the new iPad because the thing isn't on sale in the Apple Store yet.

    Online Pre-Orders were all gone in hours. And this was after Apple booked every square inch of freight space from China to fill every jumbo jet available with the device to service pre-orders.

    This is someone who knows how to play games with stocks and bonds, understands little charts and so on, but appears to have but the faintest clue about how and why people are using technology to enhance their lives.

    So long as Apple keeps true to its mantra of thinking about the customer first, middle and last, they will do just fine.
    10 Mar 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Win 8 slates!!! That is gonna be the best laugh of 2013. Total bust. Windoze anything is DOA from here on out.
    10 Mar 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • I don't remember anyone ever lining up to buy anything from Microsoft.

    'Ooh! Mom.. Microsoft is releasing Security Patch 2478.34X on Thursday. Can we get in line today? Can we? Pleeease!'

    Product Guy in final review with His High Eminence, The Great Lord Ballmer:

    PG: And here's our new Tablet. The WinTab
    GLB: Change the name. To Microsoft WinSlate XP 370 Home Edition
    PG: Great Idea GLB
    GLB: Where's the freakin' buttons? There's no buttons!
    PG: iPad doesn't have buttons and we thought.....
    GLB: iPad? iPad for chrissakes. That piece of $800 crap for nancyboys and women? Get buttons on this thing. Now.
    PG: Super, GLB!
    GLB: Where's the freakin' Start icon? I can't see the Start icon!
    PG: There isn't one. We deliberately left it off because...
    GLB: You left it off? Are you nuts? How is anyone gonna find the freakin' Control Panels? the Program menus? How you gonna find a list of the programs you got runnin,? Am I the only one who understands this stuff?? Get a Start button. Now. Bottom left.
    PG: Super GLB

    And as the sun slowly sets over Redmond, the Great Lord Ballmer lies back in his leather-bound Louis Vuitton Executive Relaxer, puts his Gucci clad feet up on his solid jojoba desk, turns on Richard Cleyderman and the Tijuana Brass on his Special Edition Gold Zune and sips his first chilled Bollinger of the day. It's been a good day... sorted out the Microsoft WinSlate XP 370 Home Edition (Great Name! Great!) and sent a message to those insufferable prats down in Cupertino that Redwood was Back! Back I tell you! Or did I mean Redmond?
    11 Mar 2012, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ask Siri how many distinct outcomes 20 golfers have after 72 holes, including ties? This is a childish problem.
    12 Mar 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
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