Barron's Alan Abelson says China's showing unmistakable signs of economic fatigue. He joins...

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Twolfe Comments (60)
 
Abelson was a born bear. Maybe his mother beat him. While he may be right - any such opinion, based on nothing but blather could be - but as in China's slowing, the process to re-ignite is in fact a process and will take time. It has begun with lowering bank reserves and will continue. If we have learned nothing more from our own economic collapse, hopefully we've learned this much: the healing process takes time but as each new patient is brought back from the abyss the expectation of the next persons recovery strengthens and we are better off trying to see beyond.
24 Mar 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11654)
 
At least in respect to real estate, it won't turn up again on just lowered reserve requirements or a few rate cuts - the overbuilding is massive, it will take a lot of time to digest, and meanwhile construction activity will slow down considerably.
24 Mar 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like

dividend_growth Comments (2748)
 
Too many have jumped on the China bear wagon, there will be a train wreck down the road.
24 Mar 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11654)
 
Well, if too many have jumped on it, it's quite impressive that it had mostly no impact at all.

(except for very specific sectors)
24 Mar 2012, 11:48 PM Reply Like

Maninder Batra Comments (548)
 
In the long term ,I do expect chinese market to lose 10-20% more valuation,till the unemployment and social stresses are not sorted out.

Your opinion Mr.Paulo Santos.
25 Mar 2012, 03:59 AM Reply Like

Maninder Batra Comments (548)
 
JP morgan? yea, their derivatives books are far worse than the chinese property market.
25 Mar 2012, 03:57 AM Reply Like

Venerability Comments (3052)
 
Barron's is so often egregiously wrong on their Macro calls, it's now legend!
25 Mar 2012, 04:39 AM Reply Like

Maninder Batra Comments (548)
 
see venerability,if I am right,these guys are lying for the elitists masters.This is why I never follow the mainstream financial media and prefer alternate financial media.
25 Mar 2012, 04:49 AM Reply Like

Hendershott Comments (1057)
 
Economies evolve. Change is not necessarily economically negative. Real estate prices do not always drive an economy. Look forward, not backward.
25 Mar 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11654)
 
While RE prices and activity won't necessarily drive the economy, the lowered construction activity will necessarily demand a lot less building materials, and that's enough to have quite a few impacts inside and outside China.
25 Mar 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like

Hendershott Comments (1057)
 
Evolution. China has to slow new construction eventually. China can't increase market share in exported goods forever either. There are always limits.
27 Mar 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like