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Mar. Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K vs. consensus of +201K, prior 227K. Unemployment 8.2% vs 8.3%...
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Friday, April 6, 2012, 8:32 AM ETMar. Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K vs. consensus of +201K, prior 227K. Unemployment 8.2% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek 34.5 in-line with expectations. Average hourly earnings 0.2% in-line with expectations.
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Remember, you need about +200k jobs every month to just break even, when you have +4 mill population growth/annum.
I want retail investors to SELL so I can pick up some bargains.
-drop in average hours worked, all employees
-drop in temp help agencies employment
-big drop in retail trade, esp dept stores
-household survey wage and salary employment flat
-total employment in the household survey is down 30K
-one good sign was that manuf employment and hours were both up
now, after the fact people are arguing ...seasonal effects... other data isn't so bad...
but the consensus was 200K so this was a bad report and there is no getting around it.
Now this is just one report....if we see this trend continue we are in serious trouble.
We need to dump the minimum wage and let employers add low wage workers. This way seniors can supplement and the young can get experience an expand the worker base. These are not head of household jobs and we need ( no must ) to stop this nonsense influenced by unions and prima donna Dem's.
And, the real problem is the Fed. They have printed so much the dollar has collapsed in value and that is the plan for the foreseeable future. The plan to borrow more to help with the massive debt we already have is the only way to continue living.
The US has the Gaul to tell EU and the PIIGs specifically to get a grip and use severe austerity to face reality,but, our Fed an Congress refuse to follow are own advise !
Thus you'll hear 875,000 out of a million on SA beg ,prey, and scream for more QE......... And all the while the US dollar gets closer to losing it's reserve status.
And, who ever doesn't see the BRICs an OPEC and most other major Countries circling the wagons must be blind ! Buena suerte !
I think the dollar will become worth less and less when those "printed" dollars actually make it down to the consumer level, which they have not yet.
I guess I just disagreed with your statement on minimum wage. Even with it continuing to increase inflation just eats that away! It would be good to get people back to work but they should be back to work at minimum wage, which is supposed to support someone living in todays world, this is now questionable.
I'm in the senior age group and I am fine and don't accept SS. I do not need it or take it,but, in my social group most of my friends work or on one or more programs to supplement there SS. And, still struggle big time and do without many things that would shock people if they knew !
Everyone one who can work an get a job works. WMT MCD Jack in Box. Macys.. The comp for a job is fierce and the seniors compete with the young first timers for those jobs.
Dropping the minimum wage might create millions of jobs that kids would jump at. They would get some money and more importantly get the job experience for the better jobs that do open up. Without that first job they won't have a shot.
There is a new law banning employers from not hiring someone currently out of work ! What did that say ! No wonder there are millions who used up the 99 weeks ! Things are bad in the real world ,but, the CNBCs an Bloombergs an FOX Businesses won't really show the truth. They rely on ratings too.
I am sure the real youth unemployment is quite high. The calculations are a bit skewed as we all know.
No doubt employers look to the younger generation for those high turnover jobs.
I guess coming from the other end of the age spectrum (mid 20's), from what I see is a lack of students having the desire to really go out and find work or actually put in full effort to expand their education. It's as if the desire is lost to learn anything that requires thought or could be useful to produce something meaningful in the work force.
America is falling behind in the different schooling metrics that we are measured on. I think that if we really want to fix the problem we need to go to the root of the cause, which is educating youth to the point where they can make a difference. If education levels increase I think we can keep increasing the minimum wage to keep up with different educational costs. (though minimum wage isn't really enticing to create anything meaningful)
"from what I see is a lack of students having the desire to really go out and find work or actually put in full effort to expand their education"
Are they just too spoiled with the distractions of television, the internet, cell phones, iPods et al to be bothered with working for a living? After all Uncle Obama and his bleeding heart liberal friends will make sure all their necessities are taken care of so why try to be one of the 'rich' who have to pay taxes.
P.S. Good thread between you and DaLatin
The only thing I can say about technology (smart phones, internet) is that when use correctly, they hold amazing power to spread information and knowledge. When you get an iPhone to talk to siri, that's a different story.
Ultimately, the real problem is demographics and technology. Population is rising (granted slower) and technology is replacing the worker faster than a new job can be developed. We simply don't need all the people we have available for the workforce. Until this slack (population growth) is taken up not much is going to improve.
If the average small business has to pay that high of a minimum wage and all the stings that go with employment it isn't possible for millions of kids to get money an job experience. And, with real inflation not in the official calculation seniors must go after those jobs as cola's are cut and truly the money to pay them isn't there.
And, to the seniors credit. They are dependable and the young have other priorities !Seniors make better workers and employers know that ! They care and have a world of lifetime knowledge.
The things your pointing out are outshoot's from the writings of the uni-bomber.. There was some reality in his maddness !
Again…if it costs more to get to the job than the job pays…it doesn't matter. I agree seniors are more dependable than most teens (and some even older). This is more a product of the present society and structure (and we could get into a big discussion over that…but I'll save everyone from my rants).
As to kids getting job experience…it can be done. One of my sons is attending a college that has 94% employment rate on campus. Every student is guaranteed a job if they want it. My son has 3 jobs there, from Chemistry lab to tutor to lacrosse team manager. This is possible because the job is right there (walking/biking distance). Additionally, the school has several businesses run by the students (with faculty oversight). In giant US sprawl world this is not possible for most. Demographics, design and structure has the US backed into a corner. The US needs to completely change it's mentality and focus on local structure. Housing needs to surround businesses so workers can easily get to work (this of course would not be good for auto companies, but the backing of them over all other businesses, which leads to sprawl, which leads to other problems (too numerous to list).
…and yes, present regulations, labor laws, taxes (especially at the state and local levels) etc. make things for the small business owner near impossible to survive, much less hire anyone.
The US changes you call for would be wonderful ,but, we've spent like mad men for 7 decades and it's too late ! We are not great anymore,but, this is still capitalism and your name ain't Mau ! eh !
$4 gas will not last much longer, just like the last time, demand destruction is around the corner.
Ask someone who makes $7 if they think they are making too much.
Last week, the City of Chicago teachers' union held a press conference demanding raises and benefit increases. This in a city where the education results are one of the worst in the nation and the city is bleeding billions so badly they announced they would be raising water rates 25% a year for five years! Chicago is an extreme union enclave so the city government does not have the personal financial interest (campaign funds) to break these situations. "Let them drink Coke!"
Sometimes, pushing them out of the nest is the kindest thing a parent can do. But, then the parents would have to grow up and age as well.
That should be fun. Even the street shootings can't be stopped ! I think LGFs should just roll cameras there and sell it !
Comment by "soap box communications"
"below par" - That's good, right?
Somebody deserves a green jacket for this performance. You can bet it will be a Master and not a Muppet.
be so wrong so often and still be employed?
wtf. 120k is a pimple on the butt of rhino.
It is an accumulation of smart machine tools, manufacturing software, logistics, spreadsheets, internet and consolidations. Add to that off-shoring and it is way beyond the ability of the Fed to manipulate or a tax policy to solve. They are only munching on the tail of the elephant.
So why have government employees increased in the same span? More regulations require more chubby checkers. The school system has a 1970's model of education with teacher ratios stuck in the mid twenties, summer vacations and with additional help in each class. Where is the automation to improve productivity or engage business in curricula? Blocked by unions.
The solution for government is to do what Rahm is in Chicago. We have a rental condo in Schaumburg, and like many suburbs, they buy water from the City. They were notified that water rates will be rising 25% per year for the next five years. A perfect solution if your intent is to screw the lower and middle class household in the collar suburbs.
The monthly payrolls number has a sampling error of plus or minus 100,000 and is prone to later revisions. Last August, the initial payrolls estimate came in at zero, but after revisions that was increased to 85,000.
Anyway, Monday will be a bloodbath in the US, dont buy as Europe is still shut until Tuesday, Tuesday, bloodbath in Europe, Wednesday, time to buy........now the money from the sidelines will pour in.....Contrarian investors are going to have a blast....
Due to Verizon strike, had nothing to do with sampling errors.
http://bit.ly/GMVtsW
How many Jobs is 120,000.. Is that like 1 per city or 1/3 job per town. Does anyone have that stat..
Will MCD sell 1 more coke per store.
200K jobs doesn't keep up with population growth.
Thank goodness healthcare added and State an Local Gov stopped cutting...
So don't read the troll above.Medical costs up 15% in 2011
I gave Mitt no chance as good number spinning was all over,but, Mrs Solice might be overwhelmed. 88 million out of the workforce now and the rate ticked down to 8.2%.. That was real smoke on that mirror. That # is awful smelly.
Neither can others !
Happy Easter or Passover !
IRISH COMPASSION
A man was sitting on a blanket at the beach. He had no arms and no legs.
Three women, from England, Wales, and Ireland, were walking past and
felt sorry for the poor man.
The English woman said, 'Have you ever had a hug?' The man said, 'No,'
so she gave him a hug and walked on.
The Welsh woman said, 'Have you ever had a kiss?' The man said, 'No,' so
she gave him a kiss and walked on.
The Irish woman came to him and said, 'ave ya ever been fooked, Laddie?'
The man broke into a big smile and said, 'no'.
She said, 'Aye - Ya will be when the tide comes in
Until the US embraces real capitalism again it won't be healthy.
lol
The continuing patent skepticism and derision that exists toward the economy and, especially, the market are the best ally they have. Steady slow rises in indices on low volumes and against relentless doubt are music to a value investor's ears. It's when all the above commentary reverts to 2007-like euphoria that one should really be hearing alarm bells in one's head. That's not now.
I'll say the same thing about the '70's as I do about constant comparisons of the U.S. to Japan. There's vastly more different about them than similar.
I, too, lived through the '70's and early '80's, and one must keep numerous differences in mind when imagining that their paths may be parallel:
1) Rampant demand-led inflation in '70's due to inadequate global supply to meet rapidly increasing demand. Almost diametrically opposite to now, where world swimming in sources of supply
2) Disastrous wage-and-price controls invoked by Nixon, which merely postponed inflationary forces and provided incentive to suppliers to further withhold supply, leading to early-'80's calamitous inflation
3) An artificial energy crisis in 1974, with decided pass-through inflationary effects because demand was already at such elevated levels versus supplies of almost anything.
4) Now, interest rates at historic lows, yet massive amounts of capital misallocated to bonds and cash. It mirrors in reverse the situation in 1982, where nobody would touch a Treasury offering 15% yield, thinking it a "poor" and "risky" investment. (Think about that for a second!) Now, we have folks standing in line to hold Treasuries with 1-2% yields and telling themselves it's "safe." (It's insanity, and will prove a painful one, too.)
5) The gap between equities' earnings yields and bond yields is at all time highs, yet people saying this is a poor time to buy equities. This is exactly like #3, above, and backwards from logic. Logic isn't being used; fear is being substituted, instead. That always leads to bad decisions.
Even if we have stagflation of sorts (certainly no way it becomes the '70's, due to the supply situation), then, the last place one would wish to find oneself is in cash or paltry-yielding bonds. There's probably an above-average chance that volatility will remain above normal, but that isn't going to change the ultimate outcome of what investments perform over time. Bond interest rates will gradually rise, either because of economic recovery, increased inflation, or both, and none of that will be salutary for bonds. Equities will be able to better adjust to either environment and will handily outperform bonds under any but the most depression-like deflationary scenarios, and we have a fed that is not going to allow the money supply to contract, a la '30s.
That's my view on matters. Digest and decide if it can benefit your outlook.
Good luck.
Don't know if you're replying to me, but, if so, the reason Carter wasn't mentioned wasn't an intentional or in any manner a political statement (of which there is far too much on SA). I was addressing economic issues, not political stances. Nixon's mention by name was incidental, and I could have just as well mentioned the ruinous policy without including his name, although he's infamously attached to it. That Carter was a leadership invalid cannot be contested.
Fair enough. But every time I see that knucklehead I want to scream, "Shut up and go away." Even the PBS Presidential series explored Carter and was brutal on the man.
Just wait a bit more, it's likely just getting started now.
Besides that, losses only increases my tax refund by a bit.
OK, no problem. That's one strategy that can work over very very long time periods. We just prefer buy low and sell high and wait on the sidelines and/or in safer investments, until we can get those cheap buy opportunities. But that also is just another strategy. As always, remains to be seen how the market actually plays out. No certainty in any market calls for anyone.