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Possibly contributing to today's weakness in Apple (AAPL -2.5%) is another cautious note from...

  • Friday, April 13, 2012, 11:28 AM ET
    Possibly contributing to today's weakness in Apple (AAPL -2.5%) is another cautious note from Wedge Partners' Brian Blair (previous), who argues FQ2 iPad expectations are too high. Blair believes just 11M iPads were sold in FQ2, well below a consensus of 13M. He also worries iPhone sales (the majority of Apple's gross profit) could disappoint if estimates rise further.
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This news story has 44 comments:

  • If and I emphasize if this is true.....Look out below.....
    13 Apr 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • If any decline in AAPL, it portends plenty of trouble for the indexes due to AAPL weighting.
    14 Apr 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • The low end of range of estimates on AAPL is always low, usually quite low, so if Wedge is staking out 11M as the low end, Ok with me.

    Remember that iPhone sales are more significant than iPads, tho iPads coming up fast on the outside ...
    13 Apr 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • I think Apple will miss estimates due to:
    - lack luster international sales in Germany, where you can walk into any shop and buy the new ipad,
    - Chinese chaos which brought a halt to the sales in China for a week
    - the overheating of the ipads which must have caused die hard apple fans to pause

    Apple will miss estimates and momentum will do the rest.

    Looking at a pullback of 7%. 577 USD
    13 Apr 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • thesuer: when did you dump AAPL and at what price? Have you seen Mr. Munster's numbers: Imac: 4.3; ipad: 12m and iphone: 33 m. Usually he is conservative and cool headed. (P.S. I am a little concerned for the reasons you mention here.)
    13 Apr 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • I bought Apple @ 90 USD sold it at 245 and then bought it @ 90 and then sold it at 260 and then bought it in Jan after Q1 results and sold it at 500. Watched it hit 640 and now am feeling good that it is correcting as I shall buy it at 577 depending on how it beats Q2 or meets Q2 or is less. Which ever way buying apple after April 24th is the only way to go. Actually Google is pretty cheap after it's great earnings but lousy stock split decision. Munster is a rockstar but his predictions are way above estimates.....best of luck
    13 Apr 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • "the overheating of the ipads which must have caused die hard apple fans to pause"

    10 degrees F isn't "overheating".
    13 Apr 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • seriously...overheating? Research concluded that other tablets and laptops run hotter and the iPad's temp is right the mean average. And die-hard fans are not swayed by another publicity stunt, it's the uninformed that may have taken a pause...but I guess 3 mill ipads in the first weekend still wasn't enough.
    Germany....seriously? The reason one can get an ipad at all in any country easier this time is because they ramped up manufacturing to meet the demand. Last release, they didn't/couldn't make enough. my lord, do some research would ya?
    13 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Sure you did. Your nose is growing with each empty claim.
    like "Google is cheap"
    The market thinks it needs to be cheaper! LOL
    13 Apr 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • thesuer: You wrote that you sold it at 500 and watched it to hit 640, what is so great about it! Have you lost all your nails while watching AAPL go to 640, it must have been a harrowing experience!
    14 Apr 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Positive Equity! I don't like them Acronyms, what is this LOL? I feel very not so cool to ask this question.
    14 Apr 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • My nose is growing? Positive equity do I look like Pinochho? :) BTW after google got busted it is very cheap, but I would wait for it to get slammed before buying it. As far as Apple goes we just have to wait until April 24th- either which way it is a buy after the results....
    16 Apr 2012, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • I felt horrible! But then I MADE money. I bought it immediately after it's crazy block buster 1st Q results. Anyway, markets are correcting and it might be a good time to be in cash. Lets see how this week goes with banks and quarterly results. Happy investing.... BTW (by the way) LOL (laugh out loud)
    16 Apr 2012, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • it's psychological....
    16 Apr 2012, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • KillerSGT (apt name), I am not saying that Apple will go down I am saying that it will become cheaper after Q2 results and a good time to buy it. Secondly, you can already see it in the price and this is a correction, if today the price maintains its postion good but if it falls a USD or two then watch it hit it's next support level. If you are holding and selling covered calls or puts good for you, great strategy as it will go up. I am out Apple and am waiting for a good price to buy in for the next run up. So which ever way I buy apple after Q2 results- hell or heaven -can both be pretty....
    16 Apr 2012, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • It's deja vu' all over again. Every quarter it's the same drill. The negatives come out a few weeks before earnings. The share price compresses. Everyone gets in at the lower price. Apple posts a monster quarter and everyone's happy. Wake me up in a few weeks when it's all over. It's boring and predictable already.
    13 Apr 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • I agree bailinnumberguy, everyone that got in at the lower price is happy. But those that didn't and repeatedly don't, get left behind which becomes evident in their bitter blog entries in SA.
    13 Apr 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Yes... another guessing game
    13 Apr 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • I think the stock will drop to zero if they miss by 10 iPhone units shipped. Because, if they miss by 10 units, that's clearly the end of Apple.
    13 Apr 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • The guy from Wedge is concerned about ipad. I did not see much concern about iphone market consensus is 30.5 m and that's what is baked in the price.
    13 Apr 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • AAPL going down?

    Must be about time for an earnings report.
    13 Apr 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • yep, happens every 3 months and we're right on schedule.
    13 Apr 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Seriously? Some guy gives a warning on the possibility on earnings and billions of dollars are pulled out the market. Jeez, doesn't anybody learn from history. It's like a broken record, just before earnings the shorts want to cover, options expire every Friday and folks will load up next week. What happens after earnings is anybodies guess, but going into it is like listening to that broken record and I for one, and making money off puts today. Next week, long calls. But anybody who doesn't pay attention to this stuff will believe it's all because a couple of people are issuing warnings or worried about a HeatGate which is a non-issue too. Happy Investing!
    13 Apr 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • KillerSgt, you hit the nail on the head.

    Next week look for AAPL to rocket up before earnings. The same story played out for GOOG.

    HeatGate is a non issue as iPad sales have taken off and continue to be strong. The press loves a good bs story when the story sells ads. What could be better then to ride on the popular coat tails of the Apple iPad 3 launch. Sell more ads and short the stock at the same time! Then turn around when the short ratio gets higher and squeeze the shorts for a nice pop up before earnings.
    13 Apr 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Are you going to pull out when AAPL moves next time?
    14 Apr 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • if by "pull out" you mean liquidate...no, I will not pull-out.
    I have dozens of options contracts that pay me on the bearish and bullish directions.
    15 Apr 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Munster's 910 is conservative.
    13 Apr 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • I am not a technician but may be someone can explain. From Jan 24 till Apr-11 Apple followed a support line starting at 419.50 on its parabolic journey towards 600+. Yesterday that support line was broken and today it started falling from early morning.
    13 Apr 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • April 10th - $644.00
    April 13th - $605.00/share
    i.e= 5.4% drop

    From 10.04 to 13.04 on average 30 million shares have been traded and this is on the high end for Apple stocks. Another indicator that today will be red. The relative strength index, has fallen below 70 currently at 54 below its low of 57 on 24th January 2012, another indicator it is heading down.
    Momentum has also fallen to below 20 from trending above 50 from Feb 8th to April 11th. It fell from 50 to 19 in 2 days and does not look like its reversing.
    These technical indicators will become divergent if Apple rises today but in the long run PRICE FOLLOWS THE INDICATORS.
    Currently @ 605 USD. This is also the first level of support, if Apple does not break this support level good, if it does, then we see 600.75 as next level of support after which 575 (upper GAP), 568 (lower GAP). The major support level is 543.29. It can hit 543.29 before turning around if it meets/misses Q2 estimates or gives a bad outlook. I guess the outlook will be great because everything is going great guns for them. That leaves only the results beating estimates solidly for it to blow up to 623, 636, 644 where it meets resistance.
    16 Apr 2012, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Got in at 605 2 weeks ago sold today at 619
    Right before the bottom fell out

    Will get back in soon

    I agree with killer
    Nothing fundamental wrong just a bunch of haters who don't know shit bringing the stock down -

    Love the comments on here damn some people
    13 Apr 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Give me a break, how does Brian Blair have any idea how much of any Apple product is sold, fund analysts have no more tools for analyzing sales then you or I. All we all have is past history and using that to try and project ahead a trend. Apple is the most secretive business in the world and NO ONE has sales figures, so why is anyone listening to guys who know no more than you or I, just because they work for an investment bank or fund?
    13 Apr 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • aapl will fall and take the market along for the ride too many iphones and ipads out there already...can anyone spell saturation
    i currently have no position in the stock but do have three iphones, two itouch, four nanos, one imac, one mac book pro, one suped up ipad and a partridge in a peartree...wait for september or october to buy this again
    13 Apr 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • funny thing though, not everyone in China or Brazil have an iphone or ipad. and they just recently became available there so, no...the market is not saturate. nice guess though.
    14 Apr 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Apple almost always beats. In fact if they just hit the target they will drop. This quarter may not be it but iPhone sales will lag in expectation of the next one sooner or later. Then it will accelerate. So any quarterly change will be product cycle related.
    13 Apr 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Apple will go up again even if touch 580 around within one week, see the history. You can buy AAPL and sell covered call every month to give regular income.AAPL is cheap $577 if it come to that level.
    14 Apr 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • My Name is Paul Tarantino; I have been retired for 6-Years from General Motors & am an Individual Investor. I am 70-Years old. I have a Degree in Engineering from "Kettering University[formerly General Motors Institute].

    I invest mainly in "Equities" with some exposure in Gold. One of My Equities happens to be "AAPL" & as with My other Holdings, I try & read everything I can get My hands on from 1.)"Your Alpha Team[Some pretty "Sharp Cookies"] as well as 2.)"Motley Fool"

    I appreciate & Thank-You for being able to receive Your Seeking Alpha "E-Mails".

    Once Again, Thankyou & Respectfully Submitted, "xzwpq6"
    14 Apr 2012, 04:43 AM Reply Like
  • Apple missed on a light iPhone GS # last fall only one lately proved to be a buying op similar to new iPad intro quarter cuts off sales look "light" when they are not really. Gene Munster and the sum of all independent Apple analysts see results below we are staying long buying miss pullbacks.Braeburn Group Index participants anticipate the following revenue, expense and eps results:Revenue 43,543,517,467 76.53% YOY Growth Gross Margin 19,450,959,577 44.67% of Revenue OpEx -3,309,360,667 7.60% of Revenue OI&E 150,466,667 Pre-Tax Income 16,292,065,577 37.42% of Revenue Tax Expense -4,040,929,363 24.80% Tax Rate Net Income 12,251,136,214 28.14% of Revenue EPS 12.99 102.97% YOY Growth

    We will stick with top expert analysis and stay long.

    "Let your winners run it usually happens because the fundamentals are GREAT"
    "Sell only failure of fundamental analysis in order to be the market maker not the mark"
    APD
    14 Apr 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • Those that missed the move up want to sell it. The sold out bulls are praying they can buy it again. Same old story. If earning reach $50 per share the stock value will be anywhere between 600 and 800 per share.
    14 Apr 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • This thing is a juggernaut. Like the WinTel story of the 1990's.
    The iEcosystem, and as I have posted, unlike either Microsoft or Intel, Apple gets to keep it all.

    Wait 'till the software development community really starts to tilt Apple's way.
    14 Apr 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • What does analyst Alex Guana think of Apple's numbers? He downgraded Apple back in the $200 range and hasn't been heard from since.

    I agree with the comments that state the analysts have no better read on Apple than the average investor. It is a guessing game, much like the weather forecasts in Western New York. Get it right, and you are an "expert." Get it wrong, and you are trying to look for reasons that you missed.

    I am long Apple and will remain long Apple. A dip of 5% is not reason enough for me to panic. I can not get over the number of iPhones, iPads, and other Apple products I see being used on a daily basis. These signs tell me, an average investor, that Apple is doing just fine.

    No iPad overheating cases while I was on vacation. Guess I am one of the lucky ones:)
    14 Apr 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • I think that Alex analyst has Guano way.
    15 Apr 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • I have been watching all the movements my favorite stock for the past 18 months has been LNG off shoot of Shell made me average of 18% per month and some up to 60% see my facebook.

    I strangle out of the money 3 months investing only 1000 bucks every month without fail either the pout gives money or th call easy strategy but doesn't work so well with stink of America BAC too much volatility to pick the right millisecond to take profits.
    14 Apr 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • every apple has his day to be an apple pie
    16 Apr 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • it looks like 577 will happen and then 569, 556 and lastly 543 before any turnaround....if it goes below then time to really prey otherwise if the results are blockbuster we are in the money otherwise 3rd Q buildup will help you to be in the money + dividend.....

    My play buy 1/3 @ 577/575 then 1/3 @ 551 and lastly 1/3 @ 543 giving you an average buying price of 557 USD. Actually I am feeling lucky and it would be better to buy nothing @ 577 and buy 1/3@ 568, 1/3 @551 and 1/3 @ 543 giving you an average buying price of USD 554. Happy hunting
    16 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
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