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There's no clear trigger behind the latest selloff in Apple (AAPL -3.4%); shares are now down 9%...

  • Monday, April 16, 2012, 1:46 PM ET
    There's no clear trigger behind the latest selloff in Apple (AAPL -3.4%); shares are now down 9% from their Tuesday high. Some speculate Texas Instruments' (TXN) addition to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is playing a role, as index funds will need to sell some Apple to rebalance, but that can't explain why fellow large-cap index members Microsoft (MSFT +0.9%) and Intel (INTC +1%) are up. With Apple still up 43% YTD, perhaps a breather was inevitable.
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This news story has 89 comments:

  •  
    trigger? how about profit taking?
    16 Apr 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Amen. Hot money in, hot money out...
    Vertical ascents don't need a particularly good reason to turn into vertical descents (at least for a little while).
    16 Apr 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
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    Yes. By "trigger," I mean a news event. Profit-taking is the most likely explanation here.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
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    Nok up, Msft up, Armh up and Lumia sold out so perhaps their low cost strategy reduces Apples chances of outstanding sucess in China. Jim
    16 Apr 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Trigger? How about HFT manipulation for short profits
    16 Apr 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
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    I think it's because of fear for a weak Q1 earnings and the impact from Nokia's Lumia 900 initial success.
    16 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The nokia lumia's success? Everything I'm reading sounds like the response has been lukewarm at best.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    q2
    16 Apr 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
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    Lumia 900 success?? is that why NOK is up less than 2% today after underperfoming the S&P by 22% this month.
    16 Apr 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
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    I think some i-bank firms just told their analyst to beat NOK down like crazy so that they could grab some huge shares. We'll see if that's true in the next 2 months. My guess is NOK will get to 5.50 end of May
    17 Apr 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Happening to PCLN, GOOG, CMG as well. I think it's just a good day for whack-a-momo.
    16 Apr 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
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    Your kidding, you think apple should continue to go up 40 points everyday........
    16 Apr 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm buying here. Anyone else care to speak up? Selling here, buying or waiting? Show your hand all you brave investors.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
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    I'm waiting for the $530 area to buy more. I'm also in at $590 from a couple weeks ago. My time frame is out to 2014.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm short above $600. Should get some support around 50 day ($560), long-term trendline support (former resistance that it broke above in Jan) around $485. 200 day in mid 400's.

    50 day SMA is 30% above 200 day SMA. That gap will close, imho. There's still a lot of downside room without threatening the longterm uptrend.

    Its market cap tops that of entire S&P retail sector. Yet they don't make anything we can't live without (they make BETTER products, but not unique products). Though valuation is very reasonable, as an investment I believe it's overbought - all the buyers are already in.

    Four straight days of SIGNIFICANT underperformance is telling, imho - all meaningfully red while the broader market was green on 3 of the 4. Very out of character for this recent market leader.

    Like MSFT, XOM and so many other market cap explosions of the past, they will remain a giant in the industry. But the stock will turn sideways. Just my outlier view on this marketing beast.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    wait
    16 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    it looks like 577 will happen and then 569, 556 and lastly 543 before any turnaround....if it goes below then time to really prey otherwise if the results are blockbuster we are in the money otherwise 3rd Q buildup will help you to be in the money + dividend.....
    16 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    My play buy 1/3 @ 577/575 then 1/3 @ 551 and lastly 1/3 @ 543 giving you an average buying price of 557 USD. Actually I am feeling lucky and it would be better to buy nothing @ 577 and buy 1/3@ 568, 1/3 @551 and 1/3 @ 543 giving you an average buying price of USD 554. Happy hunting
    16 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Or the Tuesday high was right around the time that verizon announced their $30 phone upgrade fee, leading people to worry about phone subsidies....
    16 Apr 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $30? I paid 200 to get from 3S to 4S to ATT. I must have gotten ripped off!
    16 Apr 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    In addition to the cost of the phone.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Wait till the 5 comes out. They are raising prices on the plans. Phone cost should be slightly elevated.
    16 Apr 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If it hits 550 - 575, I'm going all in on 550 leaps.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I am buying more calls here. Compare AAPL valuation to garbage like AMZN, LNKD, GRPN, etc. AAPL has proven results - as against some expected future results. No one can predict any Q accurately, what you can say however is AAPL future is incredibly bright - look at the take up of their products. Filter out the noise!
    16 Apr 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
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    matt7120----Agree, the P/E is so low especially for such growth. Compared to AMzn, LNKD and the like I have to go with AAPL.
    17 Apr 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  •  
    vphibbs
    I lost some shares due to calls I had written @ 585 last month. I bought some @ 602 and the rest back at 584 today.
    For me AAPL is a longterm investment that I will write calls occasionally. Will it drop/correct further? I dont know but I'm happy to have my shares back even if i didn't "time" the correction well
    16 Apr 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  •  
    March 16 we were at 585.00 and now April 16 we are at 585.00. Roller coaster.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
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    I dont care about the shorts. People will be kicking themselves when AAPL reports a 12 dollar EPS this quarter. I dont think the carriers have any teeth to trouble AAPL and would continue to subsidize as long as they can bill the customers 100 bucks a month.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I have january call options $750 strike price.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
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    Maybe the expected and long-awaited nod and wink among hedge funds finally took place, quietly. If so, the unwinding of long positions will last quite some time to avoid spooking the markets or bring attention to the laddered Put options purchased along the way to ensure manipulated profits as the stock rose up in value and now while it falls back to normal levels. The unorthodox measures taken by the Fed in attempts to buoy market performance with its customary pleasant feeling of regained wealth, necessary in all re-election campaigns; all combine to gradually leak out the QE-generated price bubbles from the markets, now that the third such possibility was removed from the equation. A breach of the 50-day moving average will be revealing. Some can hardly wait.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I have Call spreads for the 3rd week of May. We better recover some lost ground by then, or I am sunk.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    some of the comments here are really novice in mentality. aapl has gone up as it has for one reason- hedge fund manipulation. smart money has been getting out since april 10th. $563.33 is short term support. the only short term catalyst for aapl to either resume its uptrend or to break down past the the above level is earning on the 24th. until that report, aapl is very dangerous here if the hedge funds decide to put a stop to the game.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Im buying here... bought at 450 the first time in late january, sold at 613 and was dying to get in when I saw it go all the way up to 640. Stop loss at 565, and some profit taking over 620.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    dangerous to who? Buyers who intend to hold for a year? Buyers of puts? Sellers of puts? shorts? how is this moment any different than any other moment in investing? Isn't AAPL always dangerous?
    16 Apr 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You can eat an apple choke and died or eat 1 apple daily and stay healthy! Take your pick!
    16 Apr 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Smart.
    17 Apr 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    History shows that ALL momo stocks get hit sooner or later.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    by the amount of comments here...APPL is a momo stock and that is all..a toy maker that everyone owns...funny to watch it happen again..
    16 Apr 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Toy maker? Tell that to all of the Fortune 500 companies using iPads right now. Furthermore, electronic textbooks will be huge.
    16 Apr 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Let's not forget they haven't hit the biggest market yet (soon) ....CHINA.
    17 Apr 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The China market is more RIM than Apple. Apple is overpriced and will loss all the markets overseas if they don't smarten up and lower prices to a non-gouging level.
    17 Apr 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Thanks to DOJ and I picked up the blood scent and after the apple meat.. It is delic ious!
    16 Apr 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Direction was clear to me but some ppl were fighting not to believe the trigger sell sign!
    16 Apr 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Novice, pre retirement, learning curve huge...
    16 Apr 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Beats me (literally and figurately) The old pattern was to drive down price before earnings boost. That seems likely to me.
    16 Apr 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    This seems so apparent that it's baffling how no one is giving this rather obvious timing any discussion. All of a sudden the stock does a 180 starting a week ago after it steamrolls to north of $640 w/ another earnings announcement that figures to be huge on the horizon? Let's chat again a week from Wednesday and see where we are.
    16 Apr 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    die poisoned fuit, die,
    finally covering my shorts
    16 Apr 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    We have to understand that at the end all the big big needs the small fry investors money to provide results and that is done only by getting small investors money with movements like this (and June 2011, and 2010 etc.).

    There are no explanations from the logic side, they want our money and are shaking the tree to get the weak and fearful small investors money...there is no more than that.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Stay strong and be rewarded. Ive made more money trading this stock over the years than I care to say. Lots of jealous non-AAPL people out there who totally missed the boat.
    17 Apr 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Oh could it just be down because.... oh i don't know people are selling? Oh no it couldn't be that nobody sell the almighty apple. Give me a break!
    16 Apr 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Who needs a TRIGGER. A huge price, a bubble perhaps, some smart people are taking their money. No story needed here.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Perhaps, but most sell offs and significant profit taking do have an associated trigger. The last drop was after a mini blowoff top, but that wasn't the case here. DOJ stuff seems not important to the bottom line.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I need advice from a smart stock person. I don't have that many shares, I wanted to test the waters.
    I have thought about selling half and keeping half and than when it hits low again buy with the money I sold it for and have more shares. Any takes on this or should I just set on it ? I know at some point it will go back up espically with the report that it is now selling some ipads to china and more counties who have not been able to buy apple, Help tell me what to do? Please
    16 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    sell 1/3 and buy Jan. 2014 calls. You won't be sorry.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    How about fear of a Government lawsuit?
    16 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Apple could settle the lawsuit out of petty cash
    16 Apr 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Exactly. The price began a rapid drop beyond the usual fluctuation amplitude, right after the DOJ suit was filed. I'm not worried (and not selling) because (as bailinnumberguy says below) Apple has plenty of cash to settle. I'm going to buy more!
    16 Apr 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Won't affect them in any real material way.
    17 Apr 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Go Microsoft.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I bought roughly the same dollar amount of MSFT stock and AAPL stock because when I bought each, it looked like Apple was going out of business but I just loved their computers. Guess which stock has gone up more than 5,000% and which stock has only gone up 9.5%?
    16 Apr 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yawn. Still long. Building up my positions.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The hedgies have been waiting for demand to soften on AAPL to take it down. Today's trading was clearly orchestrated after AAPL displayed unambiguous cooling off last week. All of a sudden out of the blue profit taking began today? Not quite. Days like today are fairly common w/ Apple, just not in the last several months. None of us has enough insight to really understand what happens, but I'll stick to this theory having watched the stock for about the last 4 years. Not selling anything, only buying on the dips.
    16 Apr 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Bailinnumber,

    I am in for 13 shares at @470....in my IRA. What price do you think would be a good price point to add a few more shares? I don't think there is a need to sell at this point because I am still positive and this appears to be trading the news and/or weakness.

    Would love your thoughts.
    16 Apr 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I think a year from today AAPL will be north of $750 so I'd be buying right here if you have the opportunity to do so. I usually pick up additional shares of AAPL w/ each 4% decline in price off of any new high, so I made a purchase at around $617 and made another at around $582 today. If you don't freak out over every sell-off and just keep accumulating, eventually you'll be a happy customer. The market's behavior is quite predictable. Massive overreaction in the short run. If Apple posts big earnings next week, what happened this week and last will be all but forgotten.
    16 Apr 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Excellent perspective. Thank You.
    16 Apr 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Of course they're going to report blow-out earnings again. Evidently, the new paradigm is "sell on the rumor, buy on the news"...
    16 Apr 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If they blow out earnings, it may not even take a year to see 750 bailin
    16 Apr 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    fairly common? sel sell sell !!!
    16 Apr 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The writing is on the wall - iPad 3, hotter, thicker, heavier, shorter battery life shows the magic has gone.
    16 Apr 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    david manners: Not quite. DOJ lawsuit = temporary adjustment.
    16 Apr 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    David, you're embarrassing yourself.
    16 Apr 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I agree david. The iPad 3 was very underwhelming. The Playbook is still a better tablet, and with the Android emulator, will soon have all the apps necessary. Apples day in the sun has turned cloudy.
    17 Apr 2012, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Profit taking, and the fact the Apple stock is over valued. Expect this to continue up to and after the next earnings report. Wait for mid 400's to buy back in, at the earliest.
    16 Apr 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The system has these drops that panick the small investors out at low prices and then the smart money can buy in cheaper, setting up the next surge. The experts have claimed that every new Applie device "is not selling" - if they're right for the first time, and there is a first time for everything, then I'm wrong, but if the pattern holds, then 620, 630, or 650+ are the possibilities for April-May.

    I'm in May calls at 550 (for price-recovery) and 635 (speculative).
    16 Apr 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    No clear trigger?!? How about the DOJ suit against Apple, filed 11 April? As soon as I heard about the suit being filed, I expected the price to drop. How could it not?
    16 Apr 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The trigger thing is pretty much done.
    Cover my short and gone long with AAPL!

    You can be winner on both ends!
    16 Apr 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You can, but I think you jumped the gun. Wait for mid $400's, imo.
    16 Apr 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "Money Pit"...care to make things interesting?
    16 Apr 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
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    Not sure what you mean, but things are interesting enough as they stand. I'm betting on continued drop throughout the year, but I'm not betting on it. Apple's a risky enough bet as it is.
    17 Apr 2012, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Money Pit: It is worth betting long for tomorrow. I pocket a good size profit. I will short it once the long exhausted its steam!
    16 Apr 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Apple will surprise on the upside and the stock will soar. The stock has a low P/E because intelligent investors do not believe Apple can sustain the kind of earnings growth the company has been showing lately. If Apple does $43 a share in earnings for fiscal year 2012, I think investors might have more confidence in projections of $70 a share in earnings in fiscal year 2015.
    16 Apr 2012, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    And let us also remember that even though Apple dropped 25 points today, 37.1 million shares traded hands! Apple is hardly overvalued, especially now.
    16 Apr 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I got in at 588 today
    Jumped the gun but hope it goes back up
    16 Apr 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Apple will report nice earnings so upside is expected. Use this correction to load up your apples!
    16 Apr 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Does anyone here look at company strategy and opportunity. The ipad is just being released in 20 countries including Korea, China, and India. The icloud is huge...Now if you own any apple products you have a big incentive to stick with apple for you other devices. Itv is new and gives you a big incentive to invest further in the apple store. . The business functions are still not even realized. There is now a ripe market for a business apps and devices that are not out yet. There is room for a huge upside if your long.

    How can you call it a price bubble if the fundamentals are still good....we'll see who was right about today next Tuesday when the quarterlys are out.
    17 Apr 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    There's every reason to anticipate a first easy pullback to 558-562 -just on easy profit taking,simple CYA- and the move above 550.
    Next support 510-520.
    Folks, This is not a huge % downside move-and not a slam on the company- excellent buy opp for those that can be patient expecting a reasonable market pullback.
    Don't forget recent history- AAPL does not just go higher-Prior price levels have credence- Put the MOMO Kool Aid down and use the 3D glasses- Price will eventually return to the "mean" - within a normal trend line range, with some sideways consolidation.
    Add to your long term positions - a bid 1-2% above those price level support areas just makes sense- Look back at a weekly chart to get a perspective of this recent momentum-
    Recognize that this recent up move is dramatically up compared to the "norm" slope - That's momentum at work- and eventually becomes unsustainable- Was this past week the near term peak?
    Likely, Yes. See if AAPL can push and close above the past week's high- I see the correction/sell-off- as a normal shake out-pullback
    Forget the $$$ price tag, and start thinking in terms of % moves vs $Dollars- A $60 pullback is only 10% on a $600 stock.
    Good Luck-SD
    17 Apr 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I bought $AAPL at 580 on close What a great buying opportunity prior to earnings Go $AAPL go !
    17 Apr 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Sure, if it goes up. But I'm betting on it dropping below $500. $580 won't look so good then.
    17 Apr 2012, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    i am new to the stock market. what a bunch of liars, youn sound like OBUMA. liar,liar pants on fire .if your short your calling for a suname if your long your preaching look to the sky. its simple you nuts can't see the facts. simple i mind melded with obuma and he said Bush did it.thats all i have to say about that. P/S i bought today; LDB in hi.
    17 Apr 2012, 02:19 AM Reply Like
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