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Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 380K)....
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Thursday, April 19, 2012, 8:31 AM ETInitial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 380K). Continuing claims +26K to 3.27M.
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adjusted jobless claims still dropped (barely 108)...to 393,125...
to an economic data service and do your own analysis,,,
Nuff said.
As a matter of fact, he can't handle the truth.
Now look at him. A total basket case.
This is what Propaganda does to you. Makes you weak in the mind, body, and soul (if you have one).
Only recourse is to bash a blog, (mentioned NOWHERE in this piece that i can see), for no reason other than the simple FACT that bbroke simply cannot dispute this reality.
He also doesn't have the BALLS to contest the claim in the proper forum, which is not here, but the very place he fears most....
http://www.zerohedge.com
Read it, know it, live it.
Or suffer with the rest.
ZeroHedge has had zero brains, when it comes to assessing the real world. They're a blog that makes its name by espousing their own particular cynical vision of reality. They persistently find negativity in any piece of news, then imply that investors and traders should base their actions on the "truth," as ZH sees it, rather than anything resembling actual reality.
The consequence for any avid followers has pretty much been to miss all rallies and/or to lose their posteriors going short, if they took ZH even more to heart.
It's rather laughable that Bbro gets attacked for not being able to "stand the truth," as he, of all posters here in SA, infrequently offers an opinion, but merely recites factual data, that, then, those that wish to infer positions have tantrums over because the data recited doesn't comport with their own view of the world, often influenced by the likes of the ZH's of the world, which are not merely data, but opinions.
You may agree or disagree with the unspoken implications of Bbro's data postings, but they cannot be attacked as "untruthful." They are data; you'll have to find the "truth" for yourself.
P.S. If SA isn't a legitimate forum for discourse on these subjects, what are you doing here?
Maybe after another 6000 comments eh?
OK, it's a slow day; I'll take the bait. Don't make just claims; tell me and the world how I am "misinformed."
P.S. I realize that it will necessitate taking time away from that "more legitimate" forum over at ZH.
Where above does ZH appear?
All i see is "initial jobless claims"
I did not comment on the jobless claims number, there was no reason to.
So bbroke decides to attack something that has no bearing on anything regarding this thread. Right??
So let me sum it up for you so there is absolutely zero confusion.
I belong to a subset of job creators, who not only have figured out they have been lied to their entire lives, when it comes to anything financial, but are very, very pissed off, and have been for quite some time. Most of us currently are in the end of life cycle of our parents. There will be a mass passing of wealth, ( and a hell of a lot of it ), down to us very, very pissed off subset of people within the next few years. That wealth will most likely never find it's way back to this bastardized excuse of a "market" ever. I do not require a stock market for anything except for what it really is, and that is a legalized gambling forum, ( that does not serve free drinks ), to play with. It's like a big video game with payout in worthless fiat. Whoopie. I am fully aware of how much is required to keep the shorts down, who does it, and when they cover. That is also why so much trouble with the ramping of late because there is not enough liquidity to do both. So the meme of following some one else's advice to short doesn't fly, because we already know shorting won't work. ( i was able to figure this out on my own back in '09. ) SHOCKING, isn't it.
My advice to you, would be to worry about yourself and your buddy, I've got it on my end, myself.
Thank you for your concern.
I've been officially retired for twelve years, and was unofficially retired five years before that. I am not a professional trader, have never been an employee in the financial industry and think Las Vegas is nice, if you want to see Cirque de Soleil. Notwithstanding, I have managed to make a very nice living, 100% from investments in the stock and bond markets. No real estate, no gold bricks in the basement, no lemonade stand, no rich uncle, nothing, but disciplined work assessing investment opportunities and implementing a consistent strategy.
SA, and ZH even more, are filled with people, who think they've been and are being screwed. In fact, such sites, like the myriad political blogs, appeal to many who wish to commune and vent, rather than actually assess how the world works and to learn to cope successfully within it. The world is, and always has been, full of false promises, mistaken impressions, bad advice, etc. And, so it shall ever remain. There is no entitlement to make money, and more than the phony notion that somebody has a "right" to a job.
The challenge for each of us is to determine for ourselves what is reality and how the world actually works, and to deploy our efforts and capital accordingly. If I make or lose money, and heaven knows I've done both, I don't blame anybody else for my own bad decisions, nor for the good ones. I take personal responsibility very seriously. I don't need a ZH to validate my pain or apportion blame elsewhere.
Investors can be successful, or fail, in the markets, just as they can with any other endeavor. However, there are few other avenues for utilizing capital that offer such access and liquidity for retired persons, especially compared to other forms of business or investment that require hands-on active work and full-time supervision (jobs, consulting, rentals, businesses). Is there risk? Sure, but that's an inescapable part of life that so many seem to think can or should be eliminated by Government edict, making life 100% safe. Pure folly, of course.
seen,,,
When you use a 52 week average, it takes a lot to move the needle so I am having trouble understanding how you use this as a leading indicator. Can you explain it a little better?
For example, if jobless claims are averaging 350k/week and then spike for 4 weeks to 600k the average would move up by less than 20k which would seem like a small move. However, if claims went to 600k for 4 weeks in a row, I think there would be expectations that a recession was imminent assuming there was no obvious temporary exogenous factor.
Thanks.
It costs only 180 dollars and look at the data yourself..and yes a 600,000 print 4 weeks in row ..you have a recession...everything is
probabilties,,,
I was genuinely being curious. My comment wasn't intended to be confrontational. I am genuinely interested in what your methodology is and what it leads you to conclude.
My mathematical example was illustrative of how hard it is to move a large series in a short period of time.
However, what if the change is gradual but persistent, which may be the case now, at what point do you know that the recession indicator is triggered using your tools? What is it that you are trying to see that will change your mind?
How did they work in the lead up to the 2007/08 recession? At what point were you convinced we were in recession back then?
Thanks I appreciate the feedback.
mathematical method which confirmed the same. More importantly
as far as stock prices they didn't show a signal until the first of the year
in 2008. I do have another signal which is fairly good and showed itself in August 2007. While all this information was quite helpful it did not forecast
the magnitude of the decline that came.
mean we are near an imminent recession....
Relax regulations but make examples out of people who scam the system. Make the taxes lower but get rid of many of the deductions. And my favorite, very vague idea, stop making it harder for people to break the law, just punish them more when they do. Everytime you try to stop the bad guys from doing bad things, you make it harder for the good guys to do good things
non seasonally adjusted inital jobless claims by this statement
"So, in the case of 52 week MA. it would be 6 months by which time a short recession could have happened."
The next questions would be...can markets survive without continued injections and unnaturally suppressed interest rates?
Poopoo on them if you want..but their point is valid. Capitalism doesn't exist and markets can only function WITH intervention.
The 52 MA and 4 week MA's are useful and wash out the noise.
Believe what you want.
But notice the data. Pay attention. Hospital elective admissions are up for the first time in over 3 years, Hair salon appointments are up and the spend per appointment is also for the first time since 2009. Same goes for dentists. Dig around and you see some other stats. Earnings reports are not just about earnings. This tells me that there is more going on out there than most of you are really noticing.
All of us see the data. But very few actually understand it.
bbro is one of the few around here who actually understands it. The rest would benefit from saying less and listening more.
As for ZH and shadowstats - if you want to believe in voodoo or choose to use animal entrails to divine the economy and the market - go ahead. All you are doing is helping me.
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