Greek GDP will contract 5% this year, says the country's central bank chief, greater than a...

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winningtrader Comments (2268)
 
What are the chances of Greece staying in the EUR. I think that they are going to exit one way or another and in the process they will default again on all bonds including the bonds held by the Troika. Most likely this is going to happen within 12 months.
24 Apr 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like

kmi Comments (3844)
 
Greece will absolutely default again since the fundamental issues leading to its problems have not been resolved, and even its so-called 'default' wasn't much of one.

Greece can stay in the political union while exiting the currency however.

The real question is who will feel the heat to leave first, the non-competitive periphery or Germany, and Germany has already been ringfencing its economy to allow it to withdraw from the currency, so that's interesting in itself.

Unless Greece reforms its tax, investment, and political environment to make the country conducive to entrepreneurial growth it will stay in its current doldrums. And since the political class of Greece also controls the vast majority of its wealth there is no impetus to change anything.
24 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like