AT&T's (T) Q1 report isn't good news for Apple, and is nearly as bad for rivals and...

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gensearch2 Comments (1102)
 
or perhaps Walter Piecyk didn't have a point.

Q4 sales for AT&T were 9.4 million smartphones sold including 7.6 million iPhone activations or 81%

The new Q1 sales were 5.5 million smartphones sold including 4.3 million iPhone activations. [78% of all AT&T sales]

Total smartphone sales fell 41.5%
Total iPhone sales fell 43.4%

That's less than a 2% difference.

This is far more a story about AT&T's drop in smartphone sales than it is about Apple.

To illustrate: Suppose AT&Ts smartphone sales only dropped 24% as they did for Verizon's

That means AT&T would have sold 7.1 million smartphones and if iPhones were the same "pathetic" 78% of smartphone sales that would mean 5.5 million iPhone sales. But the market was expecting 4.5 million iPhones sales.

You think there was any chance in the world that Piecyk had nailed that 43.4% fall in iPhone sales vs. 41.5% fall in total smartphone sales?

And after the fact to jump on a 1.9% difference saying that shows a reduction in subsidies isn't logical either. That doesn't show a reduction in subsidies at all. That's a reduction in sales, not subsidies.
24 Apr 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like

SA Editor Eric Jhonsa Comments (574)
 
If AT&T's iPhone sales suffer, so do Apple's. Piecyk's point was that lower subsidies from AT&T (i.e. requiring subscribers to wait more than a year to upgrade at a discounted price) are hurting its smartphone sales.
24 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like

sawchain Comments (130)
 
Define "suffer." AT&T's yoy iPhone sales are up 20%.
24 Apr 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like

ibm1969 Comments (3)
 
I do agree with you but the market don't.
24 Apr 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like

daugherty Comments (288)
 
There has been no change in upgrade policy as claimed by Piecyk, and now you. Only high plan spenders were allowed upgrades after only one year, and they still are.
24 Apr 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like

ThomasOrton Comments (256)
 
These figures need to be seen in relation to the fact that Apple has gone global this quarter in a way it never has, so international sales I'll offset US declines. In other words, AT&T declines aren't that significant ( especially given S share ). The negative reading of
AT&T numbers is rather narrow given global growth.
24 Apr 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like

SA Editor Eric Jhonsa Comments (574)
 
That's certainly possible. A certain amount of bad news is baked in at current levels. I think international sales got less of a lift in Q4 from the impact of Steve Jobs' death, and that (along with new carrier adds) might translate into less of a decline in Q1.
24 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like

tigersam Comments (1711)
 
Everybody is expecting bad IPhone and IPad numbers from Apple and stock is getting punish for that. But Apple is going to surprise everybody. My guess will be Apple sold 35 to 36 Million IPhones. IPad numbers will be little weak due to new IPad. People were waiting for new IPad. Bottom line is Apple will open 100 point gap up tomorrow.
24 Apr 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like

sawchain Comments (130)
 
You mean dollars.
24 Apr 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like

tigersam Comments (1711)
 
I told you so!

Fifty points gap up is a gift if you are new investor today. Next stop 7 handle.
25 Apr 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like

ThomasOrton Comments (256)
 
I agree; my particular speciality is market psychology/sociology. We are in a phase of uncertainty driven panic selling and hesitance to buy, based on parabolic too good to be true rise over last months and steady stream of negative tea leaf reading which is self-serving to Apple bears who are trying by any means to drive the price down. I have not seen me respectable analysis that takes into account to the entrance of iPhone to adoring hoards in China in relation to supposed negative numbers from Verizon , AT&T, etc.
24 Apr 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like

kevin117 Comments (26)
 
There were A LOT of AT&T iPhone users looking to jump ship to Verizon as soon as their contracts were up. I don't know if they fare any better with Verizon, but I think we have to combine both carrier's iPhone sales to make any accurate predictions about Apple. And I read Verizon was way up.
24 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like

scottsggm Comments (5)
 
Decline in AT&T is a result of 5 regional carriers + Sprint getting the Iphone.
24 Apr 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like

Rodneighbour1956 Comment (1)
 
I agree with 36 million iPhones sold.

Remember this about the IPad. When you buy one online, Apple collects from your credit card and books the sale as much as two weeks in advance of delivery...this could effect total Ipad sales to the upside as sales on the books for last quarter could have actually exceeded production capacity.
24 Apr 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like

daugherty Comments (288)
 
No. Sale not booked until it ships.
24 Apr 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like

dab3z Comments (312)
 
I'm fairly certain that sales direct from Apple are booked when the sale is made, regardless of whether it is still sitting in a warehouse or not. Sales by Verizon, AT&T and Sprint are booked when the shipment is made.
24 Apr 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like

MWinMD Comments (1027)
 
Absolutely SHOCKING NEWS. Sales for the January-March period of a consumer item are DOWN from the previous quarter that included the biggest holiday shopping season of the year. When has this EVER happened before, in the history of consumer behavior? When, I ask???

Clearly, Apple will be a pink-sheeted stock by Friday. Monday at the latest. Hyperventilate now everyone. Beat the rush.
24 Apr 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like

vphibbs Comments (140)
 
Thanks for making me smile.
24 Apr 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like