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Maybe most disappointing in the weak GDP print may be real final sales, up just 1.6% (2.1%...

  • Friday, April 27, 2012, 8:45 AM ET
    Maybe most disappointing in the weak GDP print may be real final sales, up just 1.6% (2.1% forecast). Economists had hoped this report would provide a better "mix" than Q4, with more sales and less inventory driving the number. While the inventory build of 0.6% was less than Q4's 1.8%, it was higher than the whisper 0.2%.
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This news story has 12 comments:

  •  
    Anyone who thinks the disappointing real final sales is a surprise, is being dishonest. For months now we've seen inventory go up sharply across the board, yet companies still celebrated record sales without any caveat.
    27 Apr 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Inventory increased less than sales, not more.
    27 Apr 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Postponable Purchases grew at an annualized rate of 9.5% last quarter,,,
    27 Apr 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  •  
    bbro..Have seen you quote postponable purchases before..Exactly what does that mean? Thanks..
    27 Apr 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    They are the durable goods,residential investment and business investment of equipment and software components of GDP,,,,using various mathematical techniques this group can be used as a predictor of
    recessions...
    27 Apr 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OK..thanks..9.5% sounds high..and it appears to be a large component of the GDP..How do you explain how that component is 9.5% but yet the GDP figure was only 2+%? Do you draw any conclusions from this data?
    27 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  •  
    We are on the upswing of the business cycle and it has a lot further
    to go....
    27 Apr 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Is your head in the sand? Are you watching what is happening in China, and Asia generally? Are you watching England and European countries slide into double-dig recessions?

    Look at Ford's European sales reported today. The business cycle doesn't begin to start up again until 2019.
    27 Apr 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    MC:

    Apparently, the entire market has its head in the sand.
    27 Apr 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If the market goes up during weakness then I can't wait for strength to come around. There's been proof from F and GM for a couple quarters now that Europe is weakening. But Euopeans may just be choosing to purchase other cars. Who knows, I don't live there.

    On another front, keep in mind these are lagging indicators. By the time we have definitive proof the business cycle is cruising along it is likely already slowing down.
    27 Apr 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    BEA used 1.54% as deflator; but first 2 months of 2012 averaged about 2.25 (PCE) with 1.92 (core) - if these used instead of 1.54 deflator, the gains evaporate for GDP and real final sales.
    27 Apr 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Nice insight. Growth due to inflation is no growth at all. Also big store growth is propelled by cannibalizing small businesses which are probably under represented in the numbers.
    27 Apr 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
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