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More on Green Mountain Coffee Roaster's (GMCR) FQ2: While sales moved up 37%, inventory...
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Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 4:55 PM ETMore on Green Mountain Coffee Roaster's (GMCR) FQ2: While sales moved up 37%, inventory skyrocketed 100% on lower demand for K-cup packs. Gross margin falls to 35.4% on higher coffee costs, from 37.5% a year ago. Sees "more moderated" growth path for both Keurig brewer and K-pack sales. Guides Q3 EPS to $0.48-0.53 vs $0.72 consensus and Q3 revenue to $861-897M vs $1.05B. Shares -38.9% AH.
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Aside:
You know, just in an attempt to stir up an interesting discussion, I wonder, too, if the K-Cup fad has hit the wall?
My wife wanted me to get a Keurig for a while, so I finally broke down, even though we had a very nice Capresso grinder/brewer, already. Then, we quickly discovered things:
a) Keurig's provide next to no control over the strength of one's cup of coffee or tea, other than a half-baked attempt to affect this by altering brew sizes. Compared to our Capresso, it's a joke, an expensive joke.
b) Unless one leaves the water tank filled with old water and constantly heated, which affects evaporation and taste over time, there's nothing "instant" about a Keurig, as it takes 3-4 minutes to heat water, initially.
c) The last straw for us was when my wife asked me to pick up some English Breakfast K-Cups while on a trip to Publix. I looked at the shelf with the old Bigelow tea bags we used, and they were 20 bags for $2.59. Immediately adjacent were the same K-Cups at 12 for $8.59. Honestly, I stooped down to read the shelf label again, thinking that there must be some error in the stock positions, but, of course, no.
So, that means a regular simple-as-can-be cup of tea, made in a split second with water heated in a microwave and a tea bag, cost 13 cents a cup. For the "convenience" of the same brew via a K-Cup, I was supposed to find value at 72 cents per cup, or 454% more cost per cup.
I could hardly stop laughing, but I did, long enough to go home, box up the Keurig, return it to the store for a full refund, and hurry home to give my Capresso a big slobbery kiss
No wonder all these vendors have all been falling all over each other to get in the K-Cup business. PT Barnum said there's one born every minute. He, apparently, was indisputably correct.
But, maybe, consumers are awakening from the stupor they've been in (from Keurig's too-weak K-Cup coffee?) and are seeing the light?
Wow!