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Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls: +115K vs. consensus of +165K, prior 120K. Unemployment 8.1% vs 8.2%...
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Friday, May 4, 2012, 8:35 AM ETApr. Nonfarm Payrolls: +115K vs. consensus of +165K, prior 120K. Unemployment 8.1% vs 8.2% expected. Average workweek 34.5 in-line with expectations
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Look at NIL
1) upward revisions mean slowdown is worse than feared
2) upward revsision and headline number and rate means QE NOT likely
3) all the change to get to 8.1 was a decrease in particpation rate
4) hourly earnings weak
and Europe likely to fade into the close on election fears.
+1000!
for those who want a positive look the temporary help service number
is well above its 12 month moving average....
Watch Europe...all of their leading Economic indicators are down..some big...big misses too....
1. We'll get job new numbers of 115,000 for the MONTH. Slightly less than necessary to absorb 1% population growth.
2. We'll get first time unemployment claims of 380,000 for the WEEK.
How does UE go down?
Aren't we going backward with unemployment 9x more than new job creation every month?
The B/D is a guesstimate based on approximations, NOT documentation.
So, if you are not creating more job's PER WEEK to offset the documented claims, you are moving backwards.
4 weeks of 300k initial claims is 1.2M a month in job losses. Documented.
Therefore, you must create 1.2M a month, DOCUMENTED, not guessed at,job's to break even.
Dave
The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to 63.6 percent, the lowest since December 1981. :(
We continue to promote capital stagnation in the coffers of the top end of the economic scale and continue to choke off cash flow to the middle class. Consumer demand suffers, and stagnation continues. When are we going to finally admit that trickle down economics is a failed theory?
When Cuba's GDP is twice that of the US.
..as opposed to the great economic powerhouse that is socialist Europe? Or did they just do socialism wrong, LOL? Even China saw the hand writing on the wall...before it suffer the same fate as East Europe and USSR.
The idea that cutting taxes on the rich (who can and will save rather than spend) would somehow create growth is flim-flammery of the worst sort but there's a sucker born every minute.
Its time for freedom to store your capital so we can have exponential prosperity.
Or will you turn your nose up at 75 years of economic consensus that government spending is an integral part of GDP?
Don't get suckered in by semantics. Consensus is not science, just like the consensus was the earth was flat or the slave was subhuman. Having gov spend just for the sake of spending leads to capital erosion which will lead to a lower standard of living.
Just because the consensus used to be that the state should run the church and as such you should be forced to pay a tithe did not mean that that was the truth.
I fail to see how the general macroeconomic equation I cited above qualifies as 'semantics'. In my book, it is math (about as far from semantics as one can get).
Wealth would mean a recurring boost to GDP, not a one time affect.
Wealth would also account for the debt created to get that GDP boost.
if you are already bearish this is vindication that everything will collapse
if you are already bullish this is vindication that we are going to Dow 30,000
so this number could be +15 to +215k
missing consensus by 50k is meaningless
the best you can do here is say that last month the US - added jobs for the nth month in a row
if you invest based on this number you are better off going to Churchill Downs tomorrow and laying it on the 10 to 1 shot.
E
I also don't understand why they attempt such a 'precise' number. Why not just publish 100k-150k with 95% confidence, or something? publish something that is more reflective of the accuracy. They seem to use "too many signficant" figures in the actual report.
also, all the adjustments distort the data. the adjustments are often bigger than the final number, which again seems weird
on the other hand you can't just ignore the data. after the NFP (or other reports) we have more information.
Second the motion.
The only way to make an economy grow is via new knowledge about how to produce things. Now think about that. If people in the gov had some secret store of new knowledge about production that they could just release whenever the economy needed it, why not just release it now and improve all of our standards of living overnight? Or, if the gov had some secret store of new production knowledge, do you have any idea how much that information would be worth? It would be worth trillions and trillions. Granted a gov compensation package is worth millions, but millions is not trillions, so why would gov employees accept millions when they have access to knowledge that is worth trillions?
The answer is quite clear. They don't have this knowledge, and as such there is no reason gov employees can improve an economy, and as such there is no reason for gov to measure it. Because even if there were problems and even if they could recognize them, they couldn't do anything anyways.
Its all a big fraud, but there are lots and lots of people that believe in this fraud, so they will react certain ways when the gov data is released, and if you recognize that, you can take advantage of it.