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Exit polls in Greece show the 2 pro-bailout parties garnering just 32-36% of the vote, maybe not...
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Sunday, May 6, 2012, 2:24 PM ETExit polls in Greece show the 2 pro-bailout parties garnering just 32-36% of the vote, maybe not enough to form a majority government. It's a shocking fall for Pasok and New Democracy, which together claimed nearly 80% of the vote in 2009. "The exit polls confirm ... there's no political consensus for the kind of reforms Greece must implement if it wants to remain in the eurozone," says Nicholas Spiro.
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Sunday, May 6, 2:13 PM Francois Hollande has defeated Nicolas Sarkozy by a comfortable margin in the race for the French Presidency, reports Bloomberg, citing exit polls. It will put the Socialist party in power for the first time in 2 decades. Sarkozy's defeat makes him the 11th EU leader tossed from power since the sovereign debt crisis began.
Together, these developments will increase uncertainty over the broad direction of European policy, whether Greece will abide by the terms of its latest bailout and the viability of the EMU.
It is clear that voters do not want austerity. Only options left are default, euro exit, and money printing.
Greece is a big negative but there is hope. The leading party gets a few days to form a government and if not goes down the line until every party is exhausted and new elections are held.
The big question is which parties do PASOK and ND ask to join their coalition. How radical do they reach to ensure a government and if they fail do the anti-Euro forces take over?
Well said.
http://bit.ly/wrBwMj
http://bit.ly/KttScN
How in rebuttal to my assertion, it will be argues that Syriza and the Greens oppose the austerity measures at the heart of the bailout agreement between Greece and the Troika (i.e. IMF, ECB and the EU). However,
(a) with the election of Hollande in France (and other recent developments in the Netherlands, Italy and Spain) it is clear that the Troika will now refocus on the need to develop a solid EU growth strategy to complement and reduce the sharp edges of the current austerity focus of EU fiscal policies,
(b) the regional State elections within Germany this weekend and next will weaken the neoliberal and conservative voices within German political circles that have insisted that the EU adopt a rigid austerity stance to the exclusion of measures to encourage economic growth in southern Europe at this time,
(c) Chancellor Merkel, faced with increasing isolation in the light of points (a) and (b) above will now have the ability to convince her Party that it now needs to reach an accommodation with the German Green Party in place of the Free Democrats and to offer greater support to an EU growth strategy.
At the same time, the common thread amongst the four Greek Parties to which I refer is that they want Greece to remain within the EU and continue to have the Euro as the Greek currency and they all agree that the austerity measures are too harsh but must be ameliorated through negotiation with the Troika rather than unilateral rejection by Greece with the chaos such rejection would entail.
In short, there is room for development of a positive outcome whereby Greece, the other peripheral EU States and the EU generally will continue with reform of their economies and fiscal management but broaden their focus to avoid undue contraction of national economies an attendant social and political upheaval. The UK will also begin to see merit in following a parallel path.
http://bit.ly/IOZPlS
http://bit.ly/IwriUI
Next weekend will see an election in Germany’s largest State, North Rhineland - Westfalia, and a further blow to the Free Democrats.
He would have a triple mandate but then I think he wants to devalue every countries money ☻
Would only add that there is also merit, in moderation, with public finance reform initiated in Greece in conjunction with the bailout agreements between Greece and the Troika. Narrow focused deep austerity, however, answers nothing.
So while austerity -- with its tangible method of pain -- has "proven" to be unproductive, there are NO alternatives that do not realistically involve some other form of massive pain.
I agree with your critique. Clearly aspects of the austerity program are needed going forward (i.e. sound administrative practices, transparency and accountability for the administration of the State etc.). That said, in the absence of a realistic growth and economic reform agenda, those aspects of the austerity program will be impeded and may fail as the economy implodes.
2) Hollande will most likely move towards subsidizing employment by cutting defense. Look for the French being more like homebodies.
There is also talk that Hollande may bring Trichet back into the French government, which would be interesting, to say the least.
Maybe Hollande is just what Europe needs, not the opposite.
Many other leaders are coming around to the idea of a Eurobond because of Hollande. And his championship of a Tobin Tax is something many veterans of the Gold sector have wanted for years.
A growth agenda could actually end up strengthening European markets very quickly - since markets are supposed to be six months ahead, not concurrent with what's happening now. It's the US which may have to catch up policy-wise, especially if BOTH the Europeans and the Chinese get their wish for a new crop of international ratings agencies independent of the US and UK. Something else Hollande may quickly push for.
The one who is under real pressure right this moment is Obama.
Again, markets reflect what WILL happen about six months from now. The Obama-ites need to push very, very hard against Worldwide Shorts United, who are now - whether because of actual political feelings or pure greed - pumping up the rhetoric for "austerity" in a ploy to boost Dollah! Dollah! Dollah! to levels which will hurt the stock market - which in turn harms consumer confidence and business confidence alike - increase the trade deficit again, harm manufacturing, and maybe tilt us back towards negative growth.
Being talked into excessive fear of Oil is a bad, bad idea for the Obama-ites, just as it was a bad, bad idea for candidate McCain in 2008.
Read my lips, Mr. Obama: Very few Americans care about gasoline prices when they go to the polls. We DO care about the stock market, home prices, job availability, and a general sense of hope among the populace.
If there is any sign Worldwide Shorts United are determined to go overboard, the Obama-ites and Romney-ites alike should get their PPTs to BOOST Oil, BOOST Euro, BOOST Gold, BOOST pretty much everything that normally moves against Emperor Dollah! including the US banks.
The biggest risk to the world is deflation, not inflation. And May to November is exactly the six-month lag of the Leading Indicators.
You sound like one mighty confused Liberal/Keynesian.
You are correct.
Too many commentators are focusing exclusively upon the percentages that each Party has attained in the current Greek election. With over 90% of the votes counted, New Democracy and PASOK together stand to win 150 of the 300 seats in the Greek Parliament – in other words, they only need the support of a very few from other Parties (the Ecologist Green Party comes to mind) to govern.
See the following site for the results late on May 6th.
http://bit.ly/wrBwMj
Ask yourself if Greece has corrected any of their lax tax collection efforts or other structural imbalances within the economy.
If we try to change to a growth track without correcting the underlying structural problems watch out for gold. That may be the catalyst for the next leg up.
The LTRO program has done nothing but allow the banks to get 1% loans and cycle the money right into sovereign debt. The money is not making it into the private sector.
It has made zero progress on privatizing, even though the government's participation in the economy is massive and would need to be drastically reduced in scope even without the current mess.
One is sometimes tempted to think that only the most unpopular aspects of the reforms have been implemented in a deliberate effort to fuel popular rejection of the reforms, all to protect the "statist quo".
I am not confused, and I am a Centrist, not a Liberal.
Only 30 years ago, Supply-Side theories were equated with Voodoo.
Pendulums swing. The pendulum worldwide is swinging back to an emphasis on growth at any cost.
This may continue to be a tough market until after the US election. But too much emphasis on what is best for the very few has now clearly backfired in nearly every country except the US. The US is next, unless the Few do some serious soul-searching.
One point to remember: We are only a few weeks from the start of the London Olympics. Incredibly dangerous for those Olympics to be held if we're in the midst of pan-European rioting, a la last year's Arab Spring. For that reason alone, the Europeans are going to want to calm and soothe their markets as soon as possible.
And it would be extremely decent of the DOGs if they finally let the PM stocks lead the market for awhile. The group is at 900-year lows to the underlying metals. Many of these stocks are down 50 percent from their annual highs. If some bones have to be thrown to the Shorts, why can't they be from the carcasses of all those sickening high-fliers which made new highs since January?
This hasn't just been an unfair market recently. It's been a malicious market - undoubtedly because it has been so thin, enabling the SACs of the world to bully literally at will with no one trying to stop them.
Private Debt created our crisis. And Private Debt is still the problem that keeps us from growing.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Read and see.