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A contrarian signal if you ask Bill Lubby, over 1M put contracts have already been traded on the...
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Thursday, May 17, 2012, 3:42 PM ETA contrarian signal if you ask Bill Lubby, over 1M put contracts have already been traded on the S&P today - nearly 2.5X the average and following 913K yesterday. Over the past couple of years the "rare instances" when put volume reached 1M typically coincided with bottoms in stocks.
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This news story has 17 comments:
Get with the program.
The one thing I do 'know' is that historically, over the longer run, what does work pretty consistently is to buy the dips incrementally on weakness that has apparently slowed, especially at the bigger support areas but only up to your threshold of total inventory. Then, sell into strength, incrementally, gradually taking off inventory and harvesting profits.
Pretty much nearing the end of the sell off. In Rare cases does it go higher, like 4.0 in March 09 bottom.
However, Vix Front Futures are expecting a BIG 98 point Drop or Rise in the SP this month. Europe is still in focus but FaceBook will overshadow the neg news starting a catalyst back upwards. ECB plays poker but will force resolution of Greece which again could be a big jump in SP as its perceived resolution. Run on banks is still a major problem of contagion but past indicators signal a Sell the VOL buy the Mkt... if you have the stonies like me. :)
I agree with Heywally - buy in the dips and a bit of patience to make profit. The only criteria is obviously to check the balance sheet, order book and areas of business. This type of company always bounce back when the market goes positive again.
In other words, stay cool, keep your head and check the figures beforehand.There´s so much panic-mongering on the net and in the media. Look at the facts and take your own decisions - but leave emotion out of it!!
Sounds like a double dip recession to me….
"Over the past couple of years the "rare instances" when put volume reached 1M typically coincided with bottoms in stocks" is a fact, a stat, it may happen again this time, it may not. But it is based on history.
Whatever else you think is just speculation. Your guess is as good as any one else's. Please, if you really know what's going to happen, you should be on your private island counting your money, not on a forum posting. Only when you admit that you really have no idea what is going to happen will you be able to make money consistently.