Market Currents
A chronicle of housing bottom calls going all the way back to 2006 quickly thrown together by...
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Thursday, May 31, 2012, 7:52 AM ETA chronicle of housing bottom calls going all the way back to 2006 quickly thrown together by Barry Ritholtz, who gives a special shout out to Greenspan ("wrong early and often") and the NAR (spinmeisters), but spares Mark Zandi (who has his own page). "Spring has sprung and the usual suspects are up to their old tricks," writes Ritholtz.
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For my own investing, the most crucial elements in finding the bottom is finding when and where wage growth is occurring, when and where employment is increasing, and importantly, whether there is population growth.
It was hilarious analyzing a market area in 2007 for example, which had some 5,000 housing units entering the market when population growth grew annually by about 1,500.
We are only at about 1997.
Housing won't bottom until 2020 when prices finally are BELOW the 50 year moving average + compounded inflation.