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Initial Jobless Claims: 383K vs. 370K consensus (prior week revised to 373K from 370K)....
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Thursday, May 31, 2012, 8:31 AM ETInitial Jobless Claims: 383K vs. 370K consensus (prior week revised to 373K from 370K). Continuing claims -36K to 3.24M.
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Hint: worry when this turns up...
market however is predicting a recession ( it seems) every year...other metrics obviously must be used if you want to trade...
http://bit.ly/Nj1RIO
"We will undoubtedly have moments of promising news that will relieve economic and Euro-area concerns for brief periods of time. Part of the reason that the markets have been fairly complacent despite deterioration on these fronts is exactly the hope and expectation of investors for these transitory but unpredictable moments of relief. If one steps back from the trees to observe the forest, the reality of the situation is that Europe is already largely in recession, the global economy is slipping quickly toward the same outcome, and in my view, the U.S. is also entering a recession that will ultimately be dated as beginning in May or June of 2012 (i.e. now). The economic headwinds already in place are likely to make any meaningful budget progress virtually impossible in the Eurozone, and without meaningful budget progress, the likelihood of continued bailouts to peripheral European states is slim. So while short-lived bouts of hopeful enthusiasm are likely, the reality of the situation is much more challenging."
However, what you can count on will be more subsidies for the fnancial markets. Most likely it will come from the ECB. Deposit runs are real worry for a central bank. What needs to be watched will be indications as to when the ECB will become more accomodative. At some point, the ECB will have to let EU banks pledge more and more assets to get more and more advances. This should slow some of the capital flows from Europe, and stablize treasury rates for the US. 1.65 may be the new upper range for the 10 yr through the summer.