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Nokia's (NOK) massive job cuts and facility closings may help narrow its losses, but they risk...

  • Saturday, June 16, 2012, 11:25 AM ET
    Nokia's (NOK) massive job cuts and facility closings may help narrow its losses, but they risk further weakening the company's competitive position, by depriving it of the resources it needs to stage a comeback. That, in turn, could force Microsoft (MSFT) to explore new partnerships to further its Windows Phone ambitions. With Nokia's credit rating already downgraded to junk, the bond market is assuming the worst - CDS spreads now put the odds of a default at 54%.
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This news story has 17 comments:

  • Nokia will do fine. The restructuring is necessary. The company needs to cut back on expenses as it introduces new products and its latest line-up gains momentum. The Lumia phones have been well-received. I am getting one myself! Ha, ha. The company has a large cash pile and is a proven innovator. Its problems simply come at a bad time. The market is panicking about everything so the company's entire capital structure is priced for bankruptcy. That's no different than many other companies right now, and that's what generally happens in a panic when in the orgy of fear everything gets priced for liquidation.
    16 Jun 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • It looks like MSFT may cancel its agreements with Nokia and go in-house for further Windows 8 Mobileā„¢ hardware development.

    Microsoft is not likely to acquire due to the EU's stringent layoff and pension obligations for corporations.
    16 Jun 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • That would free Nokia to pursue Android or even WebOS
    16 Jun 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Or even Tizen
    16 Jun 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Are you saying this because of the tablets? I think the scenario in which MSFT makes its own phones is worrying but unlikely -- but I'm interested to hear your reasoning. It seems to me that the real advantage of having all these high level MSFT people involved in NOK is that they probably wouldn't bank their careers on such a move without making sure the kind of throat slitting you're implying wouldn't happen.
    16 Jun 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Microsoft has always had a culture of centralized efficiency.

    They don't want the headache of attempting to merge ANOTHER foreign set of employees and the physical campus into their development mix.

    http://bit.ly/Nxx8fb

    Microsoft is also famously anti-union.

    There is no appetite in Redmond for Finnish laws regarding pensions and labor.
    16 Jun 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • The Finnish workforce at Nokia is small and falling. On average in 2011, it was 14% and at year end, was probably close to 13%. It has been falling 1.5 percentage points per year for the last several. Other than these employees, very little of the workforce is in high cost countries. Perhaps half of "other Europe" at ~34k is in Western Europe, the rest are in the east, in other words, low cost countries. This implies some 70-75% of the workforce is in low-cost countries or is part of the sales organization, where you have to be close to your customer.
    16 Jun 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not expecting Microsoft to buyout Nokia but I think this scenario in which Microsoft abandons Nokia to make their own handsets makes no sense, for a number of reasons.

    For one: why would a senior marketing person at microsoft accept a job offer from Elop last week if Microsoft had plans to abandon their partner Nokia in the handset business? Wouldn't he be expected to know about plans for Microsoft to develop handsets?

    But more than this, why would Microsoft waste time and money developing this partnership in the first place if they were going to cancel it before they had begun? Not to mention, Microsoft doesn't know how to make phones and Nokia does. There is no reasonable business rationale I can see for Microsoft to do what you're suggesting.

    But I will admit that I'm mildly surprised that they're not (apparently) calling on Nokia to design and build the tablets. That would make a ton of sense to me. Does that invalidate all of my statements about the phone business, above? I don't think so.
    16 Jun 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • MS only need Nokia IMO to gain mobile channels. Phones are commodity platforms that are losing value continously. That is they are the last war.

    Nokia and tablets I have no idea why that would be a good approach.
    16 Jun 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • We can hope it will be the unveiling of a new Nokia tablet with WIN8...I love my Lumia 900 and plan to buy the tablet as long as its priced under $350.

    I have a family member with an iPad and as far as its usefulness goes, its not worth what they charge...I think an iPad's functionality isn't worth more than a kindle fire is. $200-$350 range will be the price sweet spot for future tablets.
    16 Jun 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • I think there are numerous build considerations that are similar between phones and tablets and I don't think anyone disputes that Nokia knows how to build nice hardware. Hopefully at some point they'll learn how to sell it.

    Anyway, one of the rumors going around (per zdnet) is that Nokia will produce the Microsoft tablets. If so, I predict a rough week for shorts.
    16 Jun 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • BS, Skype is HQ where? And why did they buy them ? Because Msft, has a boat load of cash parked overseas and they cannot bring it home. They bought Skype for how much? $8 billion? Nokia owns over half of all IP. That is more valuable then anything, hence with all that IP Microsoft could bring Apple to its knees. China has IP laws restricting exportation and/or selling of great goods in violation of IP, which could restrict sales of many devices in many market's.
    18 Jun 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • MS and Nokia. A marriage that only a nursing home could appreciate.

    Both have a lot of memories, collectibles and wear and tear but cannot dance for anything.
    18 Jun 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • MSFT announcing its making its own tablet says it all. Three things can happen at this point. Go all in and buy NOK, wait for it to go into bankruptcy and pick through its patent portfolio, or screw them and make their own phones abandoning the partnership.

    Which is most likely?
    16 Jun 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Nokia is really a much smaller company then everyone is realizing. Apple has taken their breakfast, lunch and dinner in some very important markets which reduces them to the size they were years ago.

    And they have not answered the Apple challenge yet either.
    16 Jun 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Intel is making ultra books, wait, no they aren't, they're just marketing them as they all use Intel Chips. Msft while they may make their own tablet, it won't be manufactured by Msft. I need to upgrade my Android phone and am waiting for Lumia to be available at Verizon. My wife has an Ipad, yet last night I asked her why she is using her HP laptop. "its easier to type and navigate the web". By the way, she has an Iphone too. Anyone who believed they know the markets, buying behavior of people across the world is completely ignorant. Within my house, we have Dell desktops, Dell laptop, HP laptops, LG LED TV, Panasonic blue ray,WII, Android phone, BlackBerry playbook and Ipad. As mentioned, I will be buying Nokia windows phone once available.
    18 Jun 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • sreimer

    My house looks the same w/r to technology but you and I are not typical. If a person could only afford one phone then what do they buy is the real question. Whoever wins that choice wins the phone wars.

    And it is hardware which means it will all end badly if all they sell is a device.
    19 Jun 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
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