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Marc Faber thinks the final outcome of the Greek elections will be that the Greeks will decide...

  • Friday, June 15, 2012, 7:56 PM ET
    Marc Faber thinks the final outcome of the Greek elections will be that the Greeks will decide not to leave the eurozone, and the problems will just be postponed because they won't implement the austerity measures expected of them. There will be a breakup over time, but, more than likely, it will be Germany that will become frustrated and eventually exit the eurozone themselves. (video)
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This news story has 29 comments:

  • If Germany exist then the poop will really hit the proverbial fan. Greece is a thunder shower. A German exit is a Class 5 tornado.
    15 Jun 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • If Germany exist then the poop will really hit the proverbial fan. Greece is a thunder shower. A German exit is a Class 5 tornado.
    ======================...
    the way current Market reacts to bad news, Greece exit => SP to 1400
    German exit => SP is hi for ever
    15 Jun 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Anything could happen in a thousand years,
    15 Jun 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Greece is like an addict who needs a free fix of bail out funds from the EU. This doesn't end until the EU finally acknowledges reality and cuts the addict off.
    15 Jun 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Good point. Sounds like Greeks are running our markets here too.
    15 Jun 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • If I were German, I'd simply be in favor of throwing Greece out. Why should Germany leave? Kick out the Southern European States that reek of corruption, zero labor mobility, and bloated public sectors. Partner with the Scandanavians, Austrians, Dutch, Poles, Baltic states, and Slovaks. Let the French and Belgians know they either shape up or ship out.

    And no I didn't forget Slovenia!
    15 Jun 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Germany ain't going anywhere.
    ======================
    1. Germany leaves.

    2. The new Deutsche Mark skyrockets in value on day one.

    3. German exports plunge.

    4. Germany slips into a deep recession (which would disgust them).

    No...Germany is stuck.
    15 Jun 2012, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • DVL is right - also I'd expect the Swiss to be forced to target to the DM, and some of the other northern countries would also join the DM/Euro.

    I think Germany leaving would be the best for all involved as the Euro would fall, but I just can't see it happening. I hope the communist guy wins in Greece, so we can get this over sooner rather then later.
    15 Jun 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Amazing Sweden and Norway are able to survive not using the Euro......
    15 Jun 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Too unpredictable. Almost anything can happen.
    15 Jun 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • The bigger economies need to divide up the EU by zones, like EU North and EU South, so the northern states can exploit the southern ones. As its always been in any region in the world
    15 Jun 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • I wrote an article a week ago suggesting the same thing as Faber does, namely that one end to all this might be the Germans leave: http://seekingalpha.co.... A couple of people said it was a nutty conspiracy theory, but I think even if it is not the most likely outcome, it is a real possibility.
    15 Jun 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Marc Faber loves press coverage. You don't get that by saying anything normative.
    15 Jun 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Germany leaving the euro would trigger the demise of the euro, which will hurt everyone, including Germany. Look at what happened as a result of Yugoslavia (like Germany) leaving the Austrian-Hungarian krone in 1919 -- hyperinflation and financial devastation for all the countries involved.
    16 Jun 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Anything that happens will lead to short term pain, no matter what.

    Like one commenter above stop acting like Obama by delaying the inevitable by throwing billions at it trying to keep it out of insolvency, but in the end like GM, it won't. Work.
    16 Jun 2012, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • Folks don't bet against Germany leaving a simple reason is they are tired of bailouts that do nothing but raid there piggy bank. Greece will not change till there is no choice. Germans can be stubborn so this election is a ticking time bomb for the EU and Southern Europe. Merkel is on the hot seat, she will have to see positive results soon. This is the start of the new Presidential cycle for Germany even if nobody is saying so. The worse it gets from here more strong challengers will come forward to make this race a brutal grind of a race. It will not be as long or as tough as one of ours (less travel + shorter campaign) it will be as noisy till the end.
    16 Jun 2012, 04:12 AM Reply Like
  • Germany leaving the EU would be a death sentence to their economy, it was the main beneficiary of the EU, they are not about to cut off their nose to spite their face.
    16 Jun 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Most people on here don't know much about international political economy, if you are in college, I recommend you take the course. States do not always act based on economic factors such as a phoney currency like the Euro.

    Rather if you look at how Europe has evolved since WW II or the cold war, their realization that a "United States" of Europe was the only way to compete and trade with the USA. Our country comprises the union of 50 individual states, many of which are larger than those in Europe. So all the unilateral and bilateral trade agreements only benefited the US, because it was the US who could dictate the unfair terms of the agreement. We still do this to Latin America.

    Germany, historically, has always been the strongest with in Europe. Spain and France always floating around on the periphery, successful, but over reaching as always. So when the EU was created and these smaller countries realized that they could benefit on the backs of the huge countries, they took advantage due to the EU being over-liberalized, the "fair share" rule may apply to them. So in essence they dug their own grave. They did not move to integrate into the country of Europe, rather they created an ad-hoc, pseudo country of loose money and free trade. This is why it will fail, its not a union with enforceable rules and no centralized government or constitution. No common language or culture, just a loose conglomerate that is not capable of holding offending countries to account for their policies. Greece is such a perfect example of how a little piss ant country can bankrupt everyone else just because it raked in billions on the backs of the Germans.

    Now its become western culture, to keep something that has already failed, alive! As if bankruptcy is the demise of a company or country. A company may cease to exist, however a country such as Greece will never cease to exist. By allowing it to go bankrupt, it will restructure with protections in place and emerge stronger than it was. This whole too big to fail, throw money at hit hoping it will suddenly turn 180 degrees is so ridiculous!

    The break up of the EU will BENEFIT the United States, we can resume unfair trade with individual states and reassert our world hegemony over it. Yes it will bankrupt some of our banks but that is life. Another bank will pick through the remains and take its place.
    16 Jun 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you Professor, we knew nothing before your lecture.
    16 Jun 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Put some ice on it, no reason to get butt hurt.
    16 Jun 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Enigmaman its not your wallet that's being raided it seems.
    17 Jun 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Marc Faber gets the life time fart bag award. The guy loves to get a word in. He has already predicted 10 of last 2 recessions. Anybody who listens to him is a novice.
    16 Jun 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • And those who listen to you are _____?
    16 Jun 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • none the wiser :-)
    17 Jun 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • I think he is right....there are too many failed states for Germany to bail out...sure there will be pain....but in time they will export to other countries...and they can buy up the EU assets for marks on the dollar so to speak....this election does not change one thing for Greece..it sill is in failure mode...and will be after the elections...
    16 Jun 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Germany has more to lose if it leaves so chances are remote that it will, Greece leaving might feel good but it doesn't change anything for the EU even if ever other member stays. To think Germany will remain and agree to being the EU sugar daddy without fundamentally changing the EU is wrong. It seems impossible for the EU to continue without it becoming a fiscal union, without loss of members sovereignty, without some agency having authority over its members. Doing anything less is just kicking the can down the road, throwing good money after bad.
    16 Jun 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • I recommended a Germany exit a long time ago, and, at this point, most Europeans would love Germany out of the Euro: the ECB will finally be able to print Euro just like the Fed printed dollars, the New Deutschmark will skyrocket and Italy France and Spain will regain the export quote that Germany eroded due to the common currency. This will prop up several economies that have sinked yes also due to excess/bad/socialist government but also due to the big advantage Germany got with the Euro (otherwise, Germany government is for sure more socialist than Obama).
    In this case, Germany then will go in devaluation depression and recession and they will finally eat their own austerity medicine.
    Regrettably this is improbable as the Euro is the new EU religion. A compromise will be found.
    16 Jun 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • LOL, you are completely biased against Germany, and do not seem to understand them at all. Germany is the ONLY country who could negotiate a fair trade deal with the United States on its own.

    The EU survives by their good graces.
    16 Jun 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Either way we seem to be the beneficiary. Euro crises just forces the money to flow somewhere, and it seems to be flowing back into the US.
    16 Jun 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
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