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Voting has ended in Greece and the initial exit polls show the race too close to call, with New...
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Sunday, June 17, 2012, 12:03 PM ETVoting has ended in Greece and the initial exit polls show the race too close to call, with New Democracy (apparently good if it wins) at 27.5-30.5% and Syriza (supposedly bad if it wins) at 27-30%.
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This news story has 54 comments:
What's "good"?
Happy guessing.
Remember, I have a time machine and you don't so ...
B E W A R E of crossing me.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
The BBC blog: http://bbc.in/KETxpQ
Tails you lose!
Political Party Percentage
New Democracy 27.5 – 30.5
Syriza 27 – 30
Pasok 10 – 12
Independent Greeks 6 – 7.5
Communist Party 5 – 6
Golden Dawn 6 – 7.5
Democratic Left 5.5 – 6.5
It looks like the whole "slapping" incident didn't hurt, the exit polls have them above what they got last time, and i bet their actual vote count is well above the exit poll range.
E
For me, it would all depend on what panicked down the most. I'd be examining various European issues, as well as which U.S. issues dropped in sympathy, and how much, relatively.
In Europe, my tracking list includes; SAN, TEF, FTE, VE, BBVA, TOT, REPYY, RDS.A, BP, as well as the country ETF's; EWI, EWG, EWP, EWQ.
I always liked this concept as a reference tool for events like this:
http://bit.ly/LYj7Eq
"In game theory, the Nash equilibrium (named after John Forbes Nash, who proposed it) is a solution concept of a game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy unilaterally.[1]:14 If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing his or her strategy while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium.
Stated simply, Amy and Phil are in Nash equilibrium if Amy is making the best decision she can, taking into account Phil's decision, and Phil is making the best decision he can, taking into account Amy's decision. Likewise, a group of players are in Nash equilibrium if each one is making the best decision that he or she can, taking into account the decisions of the others. However, Nash equilibrium does not necessarily mean the best payoff for all the players involved; in many cases, all the players might improve their payoffs if they could somehow agree on strategies different from the Nash equilibrium: e.g., competing businesses forming a cartel in order to increase their profits."
So the Greeks as a voting group are using the expected known strategy of the other players against them concluding rightly or wrongly that uncertainty improves their ultimate negotiating position.
This line summarizes it well:
"The Nash equilibrium may also have non-rational consequences in sequential games because players may "threaten" each other with non-rational moves."
That last question applies equally here in the U.S. We have about 50% of the folks happy to have the other 50% pay all the bills. The only difference between here and Greece is that the 50% paying the bills are still able and foolish enough to do so.
so I paid over $2MM in taxes over the past 15 years - I know that I have not and will not get that back in services or benefits so I am guessing that a good chunk of that has gone to support a lot of other people and programs.
that $2MM - excludes property and state income and sales taxes - all of which end up going elsewhere.
I save my money - invest for the future - work 80 hours per week and know that I will need to work until I am well into my 60's before I can retire. I lead a company of about 800 employees and most of my wakin hours are spent making sure that we can continue to attract and retain the best people and continue to grow our company.
And for all of this I get told I am not doing my fair share - that more is needed from me - not the 50% who pay no income tax or the 90% who in aggregate pay the same as the 1%.
If for no other reason - this economic nonsense is reason enough to get rid of the Redistributionist in Chief - the Prince of Panderers - the Campaign Meister. The Idiot Obama.
Obama must be Defeated
E
Right. That's why pirates from Somalia invaded your home last night, carrying away your wife and daughter and over half your belongings, after which a drug cartel from Mexico arrived to take over your kitchen and garage to use as an outpost for their operations. Meanwhile, your entire bank account was transferred to Nigeria and there's nothing you can do about it because there are no treaties with other nations and no one respects the U.S. military. But none of that matters because you woke up covered in raw sewage since there are no sanitary services, nor can you get medical help because the hospitals have all been raided for their drugs so you're not going to live more than a few days anyhow. Thank goodness a band of roving savages is arriving within hours to torture you to death for the fun of it.
Oh wait, you say none of that happened? Then I guess you're getting some benefits after all.
The facts are this ! There are over 300000 Greeks eating at soup kitchens and supplies and dollars are running out. This needs to be a world wide charitable event or the past street violence look like small practice sessions.
Most just care if Central bankers will flood the financial world and keep the averages up and not give a poop about the hardships.
Greece has been in default for 1500 of their 3000 years of life and politicians are out for themselves.. This is going to be a human disaster an we all need to chip in and screw the financial maggots !
This is bad for markets!
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
America has to cut the expenditures asap -- tax rates are high enough (federal 35% + 3.5% Obama surcharge + 4% expiration of Bush tax cuts + 12% tax rates in most states incl NY, CA, IL, NJ etc) before we become Europe and Greec will be laughing at US at that point!!
There are a lot a reasons to worry, and things Washington drastically needs to address. But comparing the US to Greece is absurd.
When the EIC program started it started at $344 to pay for the SS a working person paid and now its up to $7,500 ....., what a great government with TRILLION DOLLAR deficits, that blasts the oil and banking industries & many other industries etc every day for all their terribe sins -- I say let the Federal government get its house in order first and then tell corporations what to do !!
Some people think that the markets & European banks want a "shock" to the economic system so that a thousand bazooka's of QE are unleashed. If the New Democracy did indeed win, then we have taken a step back from getting that...it would seem.
On the other hand, with Spain & Italy in bad shape, the QE may still come, just not as soon as it would if Greece was looking like it was going to walk away from the EU after this election.
It should be noted, however, that PASOK campaigned on a promise that it would push for a broad coalition Government that included SYRIZA and it follows that negotiations for creation of a new Government will be somewhat complicated. Hovever, given that SYRIZA has already stated that it will not join a coalition with New Democracy together with the need to complete formation of a Government quickly to prevent further damage to Greece's political and economic standing within the EU, expect these coalition negotiations to be settled swiftly and a new coalition centred on ND and PASOK to take office within a week to 10 days.
Given the senario described above, expect the markets to generally react positively but that there will be moments of concern as the negotiations to form the Government hit momentary rough patches.
Of course, this behavior has nothing to do with longer-term market direction, which will be determined by actual economic performance, not by short-term reactionary trading.
The socialists are even more pro-EU than their predecessors, so they'll just turn up the heat on Germany.
I think you're misreading the tea leaves.
The fundamental fact of the matter is that the price Germany, and everybody else, must pay for a functioning EU is less national sovereignty, more fiscal stimulus and a lower-valued euro. Merkel has feverishly defended the value of the euro, but one should wonder why.
One of the fundamental problems that the EU has is that its currency is overvalued, not just overvalued for select troubled countries, but overvalued, overall. The EU can fix two problems by pulling a Fed and printing some euros: they can stimulate their intra-national economies and they can improve their overall competitive position versus the rest of the world. And, for all the talk about politically-imposed austerity, nothing will impose its own form of prudence faster than having the currency purchase less than it has been for too many years. The result of this currency overvaluation has been generalized profligate spending by all of Europe, although Germany's has so benefited from the single currency that they've been able to keep up.
France isn't worried about being "under the thumb" of a more centralized Europe. They're big proponents of same, and just got bigger with these election results. To think that they're suddenly about to spin off from the EU takes some very creative thinking.
The EU is trending ever more toward center. Sure, it's happening in fits and starts, but the direction is unmistakable. All of today's elections point in the same direction.
And, any talk about a mutiny of German voters is just talk, as they remain solidly pro-euro in all polls, and to the extent that Merkel's party has suffered losses, they have been to politicians and parties that are even more committed to the EU and euro than she is.
The net-net of all this conjecture in Europe is that investors better pay attention to what's happening in the U.S. and elsewhere, instead, as that's what's going to drive markets, after they've put down the newspaper and its daily headlines.