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The weakness in the oil market is a warning, says Josh Brown. He sees the weakness as a leading...

  • Wednesday, June 20, 2012, 7:40 PM ET
    The weakness in the oil market is a warning, says Josh Brown. He sees the weakness as a leading indicator, and as oil prices hit their lowest levels in over a year and a half, it's a sign that global growth is facing some serious headwinds. With the fiscal cliff looming and persistent European troubles that never seem to go away, the energy markets seem to be confirming an inevitable downturn, and Josh, along with a host of other traders, are warning investors to prepare, now.
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This news story has 15 comments:

  • so the strength in oil markets wasnt speculators? what about the much vaunted obama recovery? is it not true -
    20 Jun 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • the contrarian in me is screaming BUY! BUY! BUY! when I read this article!
    20 Jun 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • yeah, lower oil means more money for consumers. Not sure why people aren't getting that the higher oil inventories are just as much due to higher production as economic weakness.

    The stock market sure isn't backing up downtown Josh.
    20 Jun 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • one silver lining is the loss of revenue to russia and other dictators who are busy murdering innocents
    20 Jun 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • IMO the current low oil price has more to do with a production increase (Saudis pumping like crazy to compensate for Iran) than a consumption decrease. OPEC Nations in addition are even pumping more than they agreed to and there is simply right now an access of oil on the market. This will be a short term scenario since OPEC won't like it if oil drops too much. Also, US production is steadily increasing thanks to the shale boom. But one shall not forget - the world economy is still growing albeit at a slower velocity. Also, shale oil can't be produced too cheap and will go off the market if oil drops too much. Less drilling until consumption catches up. Won't take long. Oh, and one fart in the near east can do the trick too.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • This is crap. Oil hasn't declined more than it did in 2010 or 2011, why a recession is so inevitable now when it didn't happen before is beyond me. The only difference this year is investors have held it together slightly better (so far that is).

    Put CVX, COP, SLB and VLO on your buy list.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • The WTI is down because of huge US crude oil production increase.

    If OPEC cuts back to support prices, US E&P companies are going to raking in even more!
    20 Jun 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • "China's factory sector contracted for an eighth straight month in June, with export orders and prices turning in their weakest showing since early 2009, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday.

    The HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of China's industrial activity, fell to a seven-month low of 48.1 in June from a final reading of 48.4 in May."
    http://bit.ly/LEkoNR

    I am guessing China may have something to do with this drop in oil prices and apparently consumption. 8 months is more than a blip.
    20 Jun 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • No, China recently increased oil imports to benefit from the low price.
    20 Jun 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Truffel,

    "China recently increased"

    What does "recently" mean?

    Provide a link and at the very least and some actual info would be helpful.

    Oil markets like any market are forward looking and a drop in the energy usage expectations of the second largest national consumer will have an impact on the demand curve.

    I did find this from Reuters which confirms what you said:

    http://reut.rs/Mtx8cU
    "BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China's oil imports will likely surge past last month's record in either June or July as falling prices and expanding storage capacity encourage the world's second-largest buyer to boost its emergency stockpiles.

    Higher overseas purchases by China would be a bright spot in an otherwise grim outlook for oil demand amid uncertainty about the strength of the Chinese economy and the euro zone debt crisis, which pushed oil prices down in May by the most in more than three years.

    Total crude supplied to the world's second largest oil consuming market - net imports plus domestic production - exceeded the amount processed by refineries by 1.04 million bpd in May, the highest gap this year, suggesting more oil has been put in commercial or strategic storage.

    The surplus averaged at 588,400 bpd in the first five months, Reuters calculations based on government data showed. China does not publish either commercial or SPR levels on a consistent basis.

    EYE ON DEMAND

    Still, some cautioned that slow domestic demand, if sustained, could start to erode the impact of stockpiling on imports.

    "Since oil demand is sluggish, some oil product inventory tanks are almost full. Refineries are not willing to process more crude," said a crude trader with a state-owned oil firm, adding that refineries and traders were also reluctant to make large purchases given the recent volatility in oil prices."
    20 Jun 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Article sounds about right. Declining oil prices likely are a good indicator of weakening economies worldwide.
    20 Jun 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • It's funny, oil rising in price and the headlines scream it's bad for business. When it's declining in price and it's recessionary and bad for business. Any scenarios where oil is good for business?
    20 Jun 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • 1990's oil at under $20/barrel and good economic growth so yes they can go together :)
    21 Jun 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Then why does the guy go on Fast Money and pick COP as his top stock?
    21 Jun 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Crude Oil is a leading indicator when the year over year rise is above 40%..this year over year change can be lower but it needs a confirming indicator like a
    rise in the 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims or/and when the year over year change on housing starts is negative
    21 Jun 2012, 02:28 AM Reply Like
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