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Tech Report has been tracking prices for solid-state drives (SSDs) sold by OCZ, Intel (INTC),...
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Saturday, June 23, 2012, 6:30 PM ETTech Report has been tracking prices for solid-state drives (SSDs) sold by OCZ, Intel (INTC), and others since their 2011 releases, and estimates the average drive has seen its price decline 46% since launch time, thanks in large part to plummeting NAND flash memory prices. That has fueled growing SSD use within PCs (I, II), and is one of the reasons (among others) why hard drive giants Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) have seen their valuations reach dirt-cheap levels.
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I don't understand why you own STX Stan. You know of the headwinds. At Obsidian Lightyear we don't believe the margin of safety is large enough to warrant an entry. Care to share your thesis? (because we don't see it but would love to be shown the light if there is any)
Did you think of how the move into cloud computing might impact Seagate's earnings? I know Einhorn is in it but he's not ALWAYS right. Just a thought.
I also expect STX and WDC to be more aggressive in the SSD business longer term. But there have been so many new players in SSDs recently, that has made sense to wait for a shakeout before spending a lot of money on acquisitions. That window may be closing soon, as clear IP leaders have started to emerge. I actually think an STX/OCZ combination would make a lot of sense for STX. But I think OCZ shareholders can make more over time if OCZ stays independent.
(STX) (WDC) are dangerous to own. They held a premium because thailand's flood gave them huge margins. That advantage is now gone and now there is once again XS supply in storage. Worse, OCZ/SSD is growing. OCZ and SNDK are ones to watch, but the MU drop and the overall price drop in the last month ALONE is frightening. The sector anticipates further weakness.
I expect an earning runup and tons of short covering.
FIO margin should benefit from this
follow me on twitter 64turok if youd like to follow my fio trade. i dont plan to hold on earnings day
Cloud storage, and cloud backup is becoming a reality. Such that the need for multiple drives or any drives in a household will diminish in just a few years. In my household of 4 we have 3 desktops, 3 notebooks, 1 backup drive, 2 DVRs, 3 USB drives. I envision each of those devices (except perhaps the DVRs) in 5 years all having SSDs and no HDDs, and that there will be a single 3 to 5T drive that is network attached for archival and backup. Each of the devices will have 250 to 500G SSD. There is no need for more because the actual drive space will be virtualized and will appear to be unlimited, and in fact it will be unlimited (limited only by amount I purchase, not the size of a piece of hardware). Additionally, my ISP will provide, due to the data being in the cloud, accessibity from anywhere, anytime via WiFi or LTE. At the same time, the function of the smart phone, Pad, and notebook will blend as they already are. No longer will anyone say, "oh, I have that number on my phone".
A single 3T drive will cost (~$150) much less than the 9 drives (~$900) I currently maintain. And with dedup and compression what we currently see as 3T of storage will consume 30% of the space, resulting in much greater capacities than we currently have, and providing better access speeds because the amount of data that is transported across the network will be much less.
Given the fact that ATT, Verizon, TWC, or Comcast are the primary ISPs across the US, and that most modern homes have a set top box that is connected to the WAN, and the set top box is off most of the time in a 24 hours period, it should be obvious that in a world where the set top boxes manufactures are struggling to provide something of value, and the telco's are seeking to grow their revenues and tie consumers in, it is not hard to see an offer that adds some functionality to the set top box to become a smart NAS that also backs-up to the cloud intelligently. (dedupe, compression, bandwidth aware, prioritizing data).
Then there are additional headaches that go away.... already, when I buy a new device it is easy load it with my applications and data. With the virtualized storage, it will be even easier, and the environments will be consistent.
What I find interesting is that CSCO and GOOG are in a great position to push this vision, and both are looking at what they should do with their Set-Top businesses. I've long thought that APPL should acquire the business and remake it in their likeness, but another logical path would be for a HDD to move to that space in an effort to vertically integrate and to create real value for the ISPs.
SSDs require investment and scale which is unattainable at present. In addition, cloud storage will create a shortage of storage in the near future.
Both pieces I have linked to in this chain are great pieces and a must read for anyone interested in storage
wrt SSDs, are you referring to the scale of the manufacturing capability or the devices? You are wrong on both counts as supply currently outstrips demand; and they can scale, but it is dependent on the file system and its ability to virtualize. Storage virtualization is pretty robust in the Enterprise space, but the larger value is in the consumer space because it is a space where people do not back up, have multiple devices per household, lack the capability to recover because they are non-technical, and are embracing smart devices (smart phones and Pad computing) faster than the Enterprise.
What will happen is that the technology developed for the Enterprise will be put on ASICs, placed on the controller, and will be deployed in the consumer space at the set top box.
As a former buyer of NTAPs in the dotcom era, I would have to say that although I loved the product and I think it is phenomenal, when it comes down to it SSD is the future (speed, reliability) and unless they figure this out they will go the way of other tech dinosaurs. As products go through their replacement cycles and buyers are faced with a new decision they don't always go with what they did in the past so it is this new purchase activity from once loyal buyers which is the activity that threatens to erode the long-term position of these icons of tech.
It happened to RIMM.
Today, I think SSD is the future. Don't know about tomorrow.
2- data in the cloud will be encrypted. It is safer there than on a phone protected by a 4 digit pin, or on a notebook computer that can be cracked.
3- local backups are frequently out of date, and only available locally, and can take hours if not days in practice to allow a restoration.
4- agreed storage is cheap, and it will be cheaper in the cloud due to dedupe. But the storage media in a multi-tier environment can result in $500 in savings for a home environment.
5- have you used cloud storage? terribly slow for rebuild if entirely from the cloud, but otherwise you rarely experience any delay due to tiering. Due to virtuallization you can be up and running in minutes.
6- I would agree it is not 'necessary', unless you want a reliable, safe, offsite and significantly cheaper alternative to a local backup with the added benefit of access to the data from anywhere