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"The ignorance is willful," says Michael Burry of the highest levels of the government and the...
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Sunday, June 24, 2012, 9:14 PM ET"The ignorance is willful," says Michael Burry of the highest levels of the government and the Fed. More or less alone in a room studying prospectuses, Burry predicted and then profited from the real estate collapse. "Our nation's economic policies are born of a syntheses of theories on how to deal with the Great Depression of the 1930s, yet seem unable to honestly examine the most recent one." (full speech from UCLA Commencement)
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I wonder what senators were arguing about as Rome burned? Price of slave? Some other narcissistic yearning?
Thanks for explaining what the rest of the world already knew.
He was a voice in the wilderness before and continues now in his observation of the bond markets. It works till it doesn't. By the way, he does tell of the dark days Before the collapse and the significant losses he suffered before the eventual meltdown occurred. He may still stand to lose what's been gained on the next leg of this international monetary fiat house of cards. imo.
The guy is so vain, half his speech is me-me-me, which is not really the point.
The point is that we have 1000's of academics, 1000s of hedge fund expertss and 1000s of media putting out prediction every day. Positive predictions are no-news, so the media filters and give us concentrated negative predictions every day.
Where are all the geniuses which predicted 2008 correctly (by pure luck/statistics if you ask me), and predicted a similar crash 2010 and were WRONG? (and missed on a 30% upswing) where are these guys and the TV stations which looked at them with admiring eyes? where are these clueless?
Have you all forgotten the "50% chance of double dip" or the 70% or the 100% - yes 100% people said on TV, "100%". Because they don't understand what "100%" means - 100% means that you bet your home, your wife and your kids on it - because it's 100%. You bet your home & wife & kids that the Sun will rise. I would. These guys said such nonsense on TV !!!
Statistically when you have millions of predictions a year, there will be some which will correctly predict any fall/crash even within the specific date.
My fellow investors (as opposed to gamblers) these gloom predictors hurt consumer confidence, which in turn has a real negative effect on the economy.
These guys are putting out the prophecies which fulfill themselves, invite reality to follow. Negative intentionality. These guys are the enemy of long-investors.
The 2008 was a very unusual greed imbalance. Which very surprisingly came out, bruised but NOT knocked out, through TARP. Why didn't we hear even 1 word from this guy about TARP?
The guy is so upset that Obama doesn't have time to sit with him. He thinks he is special, because he is so full of himself. Believe me, the White House gets hunders of "let me show you how it's done" every day, from vain economists. Well, our president chooses to sit with Buffet. Good for him. I would select the same, because Buffet is not so repulsive-from-vanity, plus a couple of other reasons.
To think that because of his letter to the congress - the IRS, FBI and a few other agencies chased him - is an acute state of megalomanic-paranoia. Again the White House receives 100's of these a day, and hopefully recycles the paper.
The metrics in the US are not very bright but are also very solid. When you have unemployment payments for 99 weeks, I can easily imagine 1 out of 20 of us deciding to stay home with our kids, or sail, or surf for a mid-life break/vacation.
The babyboomers age WILL shrink the work-force. Totally mathematical.
And we rea comparing empoyment stats against the peak of the real-estate bubble. WE ARE NOT SUPPOSED to return to bubble levels !!! it was a BUBBLE !!!
And yes Europe is slow, But China? IS GROWING at 7.8-8.1%.
And the clueless media and experts are wailing over the 2nd derivative = the growth of growth (in English).
I say - like The Fool - turn off the TV, and make money.
So when running against that grain would anyone be singled out? Yeah kind of like how people tried to shout down Meredith Whitney and other people making macros calls on sectors which turned out to be right. Would government try to intimidate people? The Obama administration might be the most hostile group ever to private industry and private citizens than we have ever had in our lifetimes.
If you don't think Buffet is vain you are not looking hard enough.