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The latest rumors aren't helping Research In Motion (RIMM -2.8%), as investors focus on a...
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Monday, June 25, 2012, 9:49 AM ETThe latest rumors aren't helping Research In Motion (RIMM -2.8%), as investors focus on a downgrade to Underweight from Morgan Stanley's Ehud Gelblum ahead of Thursday's FQ1 report. While granting "immediate asset sales or strategic options could unleash ~$15/share in value," Gelblum see this as unlikely, and predicts a future of major hardware division losses. His FY14 revenue forecast of $7B is well below a consensus of $12B. (Credit Suisse)
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And, it doesn't matter if every analyst comes to that general consensus. Each model still might have a large standard deviation, and that means that each model is essentially the same--there is no strength in numbers in such a case, because the expected value isn't in question. It could also be said that the models are highly correlated. What is in question is how reliable is this number? The answer, usually, is "not very."
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