Market Currents
June Nonfarm Payrolls: +80K vs. consensus +100K, prior +77K (revised from 69K). Unemployment...
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Friday, July 6, 2012, 8:30 AM ETJune Nonfarm Payrolls: +80K vs. consensus +100K, prior +77K (revised from 69K). Unemployment rate 8.2% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.
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It's obviously not, even if this number had come in as expected unemployment would still be around 8%, under-employment would still be stupidly high, and the people who have plain just given up would still not be looking for the jobs that don't exist.
ADP NFP
These days there's a number for everybody.
China and India are going down. Europe is imploding. England is double-tipping. America is sagging. Japan is in a 30 year funk. America reports tepid job growth....but: lipstick anyone?
I have to admire your spunk, BBro.
NO recession.
The distinction is whether you are well employed or otherwise financially secure (we can handle it) or un- or underemployed with family responsibilities (how are we going to make it through the month). Two Americas without a vision of improvement can only last so long.
http://bit.ly/N4obXi
With The Honorable Fed Chairman ready to help the recovery I think the future is bright.
IMF Gloomy
In April the IMF was predicting global economic growth of 3.5pc this year, but Ms Lagarde gave a clear signal that the forecast would be cut when an updated assessment was published on July 16.
Speaking in Japan ahead of talks with the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, she said: "Over the past few months, the outlook has, regrettably, become more worrisome. Many indicators of economic activity –investment, employment, manufacturing – have deteriorated . . . the global growth outlook will be somewhat less than we anticipated just three months ago."
Ms Lagarde said concern was mounting not just about the economy in Europe and the US, but also in the key emerging markets of Brazil, China, and India.
"Make no mistake: this is a global crisis. In today's interconnected world, we can no longer afford to look only at what goes on within our national borders. This crisis does not recognise borders. This crisis is knocking at all our doors," she said.
Otherwise the economy muddles along in a slow growth mode, alternating between ZH pessimism & SA optimism.
Waiting on European Hell, Iran/Syria false flags, US bond vigilantes or a horrible earnings season. Barring those we continue deleveraging w/slow growth.
Please take off those rose colored glasses folks....Our Fiat money days are numbered. Shuttereing to see what happens after the Election.
Please re-evaluate your numbers . NOTHING is improving !!!! Gas prices dropping is actually a bad thing. Only means a worldwide Recession. Now just wait till all this printing sparks inflation.
Thhose who think that won't happen i have a bridge i would like to sell...lol...
map
Thanks, but decreasing commodity prices do not mean there is about to be a "spark of inflation"
No, an INCREASE in metal prices means that inflation is ahead. I appreciate your concern about my posting but when misinformation is posted then i feel i have a right to post.
If you believe the figures coming out of Washington thats fine. I don't..
map
Lipstick anyone?
We'll be meeting our own asses before long at this rate.
Don't wish for something that might actually lower the value of your house as more foreclosures will follow if people have inflation to deal with and a limited amount of money to cover their bills!!
Start buying your physical metals soon. I dare you to look at the ten year chart of gold and show me one better!!!
map
QE will do nothing until it gets into the peoples hands which in turn will cause growth and the byproduct inflation.
You miss the entire purpose and point of QE.
The whole purpose is to NOT get it into the "peoples" hands but to keep it in hands of the bankers.
Destroy the middle class and senior citizens so the bankers can get richer.
How am I, as a member of the middle class, who does not now, nor has ever, paid federal income tax that was not refunded, able to say I am not a part of the problem?? As someone with a college degree, I know taxes have to go up on those making $30,000-$50,000, since right now, on average we pay $0 in federal income tax. At the same time, the best choice for me come April 15 is to do everything I can to not pay taxes. The top 1% pay 40% of the taxes, its not sustainable, or right. The middle class is destroying itself by electing scumbags instead of realists.
The problem we have is that Washington is too good at spending, and too bad at collecting.
48 Million people on food stamps isn't progress. We have college bound students in Sept close to the numbers in the 80's. Yup the lies just continue to come..
map
They have recently modified their process to try and better guess the birth/death adjustment. It seems the new process isn't guessing this adjustment as well as they thought. The difference appears to be ADP's guess about small business job creation was more optomistic than the BLS's guess.
ADP excludes Governnment so when it is contracting - as it is - then ADP will be higher - ADP may be half a step ahead of NFP so it may be telling you what is to come - but overall it is the best predictor and is closer than you think.
You must remember the error on these numbers is +/- 100,000 or more. These are very blunt instruments. How anyone invests on this basis is beyond me.
E
The only people making any money in these markets are a handful of truly adept volatility traders (not your average SA participant) and those that know how to build and maintain high-yielding portfolios with below-average betas.
Furthermore, as markets meander horizontally, while profits continue to rise, even if at a moderate rate, the value gap in equities gets larger and larger. This is extremely positive for value investors, but poses increasing risk to those who remain in cash or make entirely defensive allocations. Those not deployed on the long side are left only to cheer on recession because any other outcome will almost certainly see equity prices move against them.
I would agree with you but with rigged markets the common investor is now smarter than years ago. Volume is down, as people don't trust anyone right now.
That is why i started to accumulate my physical since 2008. The markets are for losers in the long run. The market has been flat for 10 years now. It will get worse...imo
Listing possible upside potentials and ignoring the downside risks - especially on the macro-economic level, is not helpful at all.
I'm not even a bear, I hate going short yet I've liquidated most of my long positions. The current global economic condition is highly precarious in my opinion. From China's hard or soft landing, to Europe's Euro, to the US's deficit spending, fiscal cliff, unemployment issues and a GDP/debt passing the 100%milestone. Add to that global over-reliance on debt, central banking intervention and the drag it creates on growth and private enterprise, I would feel everything but comfortable in long positions - especially since macro-economic crisis invariably have very high stock price correlations, meaning there are few stocks that can be categorised as safe-havens.
Defining the average SA participant as sub-par in his trading skills is insulting, considering market makers like GS get their calls wrong on a regular basis - unless of course you assume they trade opposing to their calls, which is even worse and highlights the currently rigged market that makes any retail trader a loser in the long run in side-ways markets.
I will never and cannot make a recommendation, as I do not know how the markets will develop. I will however air my concerns.
Nothing's ever "safe" in life, and when it is perceived as so, all the value is gone. In fact, prices paid for "safety" are routinely overvalued, making the "safe" investments, ironically, more risky. Many of those, who think they're prudent and safe by being allocated to Treasuries at all-time-record-low yields, will discover one day that such was an investment with little return and sizable risks.
Also, being a value investor doesn't mean going 100% long on high-beta "go-go" investments. On the contrary, it means selectively choosing investments with proven production power, whose yields will be sustainable and are now even more enhanced at lower prices, as many investors flee equities and other corporate issues. An assortment of preferred stocks and debt issues can be added to provide further stability. The net result of building such a portfolio is that one garners outsize income, during times when many settle for none, has manageable downside risks and lower betas than the market, but still possesses discernible upside possibilities by holding issues selling at a fraction of previous values.
And, yes, from the tenor of many thousands of posts here on SA, I'd judge that the average (not everybody, of course) trader/investor here in SA is far too emotional, reactionary and often divorced from making judgments based on data, rather than news reports and punditry.
Those not deployed on the long side are left only to cheer on recession because any other outcome will almost certainly see equity prices move against them.
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you are assuming investors, who because of unexplainable mistake forgot to put their money on roulette
everybody who is in roulette game expected by you to be a winner
the only good outcome for who is not in the game is roulette got broken and they are cheering for that
imagine somebody whose living based on W2 Job
who does not cheer recession
imagine that recession is true
and this somebody lost job and in addition lost all money in roulette game
would it be unthinkable to suggest that money which were not in roulette game are only money this somebody has
This is an investment site, first and foremost. One tries to assume that those that populate these environs are looking for information, and sometimes advice, on whether and how to deploy one's investment assets. It is to them that I direct my comments.
If there are those with hardships and/or no funds to invest, which undoubtedly there are, that's unfortunate, but it doesn't alter the advice I'd provide to those with funds to deploy.
according to you we have:
Category A SA readers
looking for information, and sometimes advice, on whether and how to deploy one's investment assets.
Category B SA readers
who are with hardships and/or no funds to invest
I would add category C
who are with assets looking to deploy their investment assets without risking to become SA readers of category B
My point in my previous post was to let you know that risk aversion does not necessarily means recession cheering.
Risk aversion sometimes means that someone does not have to sell someone's assets at Market bottom, which were bought at Market top, because this someone does not have cash to go through
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I is nice from you that you you don't alter your advice to those with no funds to deploy.
I heard that some guys actually alter it
The fact is the U.S. economy is weakening, not strengthening. Look at the data from all of last month...90% of the data was worse than expecations..ISM manufacuturing was dismal...Home prices y/y are still down(this bubble hasn't completey finished popping..anybody saying otherwise is in for a very rude awakening in the next 2-3 years)
They say inflation is down across the board, but they still dont account for food prices in the CPI numbers...if you add food, were looking at 4-5% inflation.
But....
Be careful with shorts. Q2 earnings might surprise on the plus side thanks to the big fat gift to corporations regarding pension plan funding. Have a great weekend.
But the devil is in the details and when the earnings bar is laid on the floor it is not hard to beat estimates.
What people should be focused on are warnings of slower growth from global multinationals like Proctor & Gamble and Fedex along with retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond and Federated.
cant be made any more plan!