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Apple (AAPL) might be forecasting a major drop in iPhone 4S sales ahead of the next iPhone's...
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Monday, July 9, 2012, 6:54 PM ETApple (AAPL) might be forecasting a major drop in iPhone 4S sales ahead of the next iPhone's launch. Topeka Capital's "Apple Monitor," which tracks the sales of Taiwanese firms who (on average) derive 50%-60% of their revenue from Apple, witnessed a 13% M/M sales decline in June. That compares with a 1% average increase over the last 7 years, and suggests a large decline in component orders. Nonetheless, analyst Brian White is maintaining his $1,111 PT on Apple. (previous)
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The hand-wringers will moan about how $AAPL is about to crash into oblivion as a result, and would do well to recognize what happened last time. I hope they short the stock heavily so that I can buy some on sale.
And Dan has a solid reputation; I sold based upon Niles' statement.
It was Dan Niles, who, many years ago, upgraded Intel to a strong buy with a 150 price target 20 minutes before the closing bell on a Friday before the Memorial day weekend. It was an outrageous call at the time and sent the stock soaring into the close. After the bell, intel issued a profit warning. On the next trading day, intel gapped lower and proceeded to make new lows. It never recovered and one would have lost more than 70 of their investment listening to this idiot. Niles dropped out of site into obscurity and lately has resurfaced again. Brilliant.
by Munster of Piper to be the largest in world history. http://bit.ly/Qdx69F our fav chartist gets (AAPL) to $673
around earnings.We hope she is right our ginormous options
trade will hit big if she is. Up 335% $75k in a little over a week so far.
STO Sep 515 P#15 to BTO Jul 580-615 Call spreads #50.
I'm not a buyer here--wish I'd been one earlier and certainly I wouldn't consider shorting the company, but its not a matter of if, but rather when AAPL will flatten out or worse.
The iPhone has no more advantage over the market than the Blackberry had in the long run. The iPad will be hit with a barrage of competent competition with feature rich offerings at a lower price.
AAPL is no NFLX, but there is an eerie similarity to NFLX in the ferocity of its fan base when the threat of looming competition is brought up as a reason to be cautious.
The iPhone came out more than five years ago and there still isn't a single phone that rivals the success of it.
I'm going to keep buying into this holy grail investment until the competition convinces me not to. The money is just too easy.
"the world as we know it today can and does quite well without apps, widgets, and siri."
Which is exactly why Apple and most other companies are thinking about the world tomorrow.
Sonner or later old ways of thinking are replaced and the universe keeps moving.
As always, everything depends on the actual device: will the 5 be a good phone? Because competition is increasing. The Galaxy 3S and ONE X are both terrific phones, the former especially has been good enough to get some 3-4 generation iPhone users to switch. The reviews for the phone are generally fantastic with the complaints being centered on only a few mostly inconsequential items. The fact the phone is back ordered at many carriers speaks to its popularity, not to mention the delays in beginning selling the phone to accommodate pre-orders.
Luckily for Apple, I think there is plenty of room to improve the current device and get people interested enough to extend their contract (I know some iPhone junkies have 3-4+ year contracts because they have upgraded so much and just kept tacking on years -- this is part the credit cycle at work in this industry). The bigger screen will be a huge differentiator -- the current phone is at the point where people make fun of your screen size, so this will be most helpful. iOS 6 is also important because the OS has lost ground to Android. Hopefully they will focus on allowing more customization and also make all the polish improvement we have come to expect. Finally, I am sure they have something else up their sleeve -- gimmick or not, that could help. Siri, which 85% of people don't use according to one poll I saw, still helped sell phones -- people need to be able to rationalize their purchase, so adding up these check boxes is essential.