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Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu is more bearish than ever on Nokia (NOK -1.9%), slashing his PT to...

  • Friday, July 13, 2012, 12:30 PM ET
    Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu is more bearish than ever on Nokia (NOK -1.9%), slashing his PT to $1.56 from $2.63 and forecasting a $0.38/share loss for 2012. He thinks more disappointing news could accompany Nokia's Q2 report, due Thursday, and that feature phone demand is evaporating as Android phones get cheaper. As for Windows Phone? Ferragu asserts it has "insignificant traction," and that there's no room for a "third ecosystem." (yesterday)
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This news story has 17 comments:

  • What ecosystem does Samsung have??

    MSFT is showing signs of developing quite a robust one and this guy is completely oblivious to what's really occurring. I guess he is claiming you can't have more than 1 1/4 ecosystems. Hell Samsung is doing it with their 1/4 of a one and I am being generous at that. They have a good product and can produce it cheap. If that is the ingredient for a successful product, what makes him think others can't as well.

    This is the most slanted comment I have seen so far and as we all know they are out there in droves.

    This is the same guy who has recently upgraded RIMM. Spending too much time at the Kool-Aid fountain basically sums it up for this numskull.
    13 Jul 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • They have android tablets and phones, and they do make computers with android on them as well.
    15 Jul 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Finally someone with a right mind. But I disagree on the price target. I see $0.50. If you are a new to Nokia and plan to invest, don't. Ignore all the comments. They are written by people who are stuck with Nokia at probably above $5.00. They will sell their souls to lure you in. Vicious people. Do not buy Nokia or it will the end of you.
    13 Jul 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Westkite is just going short on Nokia. If it would matter, he would sell the soul of his mother just to make the stock sink more ;)
    13 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Numbskull is too generous, more like dumbskull. Once people realize a real W8 phone will take best yet pictures, be able to run office, best maps, and can do more than talk to you and play angry birds; all at half the cost; don't you think it will sell?? buying more NOK and MSFT every day.
    13 Jul 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • I haven't really fallen one way or the other on Nokia but if the company liquidated today the shareholders would receive $2.32 per share so $1.52 is impossible.

    The recent report that there are only a few hundred thousand Lumia's in the U.S. isn't helping things but the liquidation value has put a floor on the shares.
    13 Jul 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Just another hatchet Job by a nobody,know nothing scribe!
    13 Jul 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • They sold a lot more lumias than 330k for sure. Last quarter they sold 600k in north America not including the Lumia 900. I guess it will only be a few more days until we know for certain.
    13 Jul 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • The accuracy and worth of Pierre Ferragu's opinions are insignificant.
    13 Jul 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • @Charles

    I'm of the mind that the unbiased analyst is rare animal indeed.
    I look at them more as a catalyst for discussion which is where I derive any value.

    Even though most commenters are also biased, they typically don't try to hide it, or if they do it's so obvious as to not matter. It's is the rationale of the longs and shorts which provide the best insight, for me anyways.
    13 Jul 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Agree with Bernstein that the next few quarters will be challenging for Nokia. There is no chance Lumia sales will fully compensate for Symbian and feature phone sales decline. The important figure on July 19 will be how much Lumia sales increased compared to Q1. An increase from 1 million lumias sold q4 2011 to 2 million lumias sold Q1 2012 to 3.5-4 million lumias sold in Q2 would be a nice positive trend. I expect that the media however will continue to paint these numbers in a negative light by deeming any lumia sales figure a failure because in comparison, apple sold 30 million handsets. There will be no attempt to compare current lumia sales to the first three quarters of apple or android handset sales when they were first released.

    No room for a third ecosystem comment is short sighted. Microsoft made its name designing operating systems, and it's amazing how much people discount the possibility that Microsoft could succeed designing a mobile operating system. Microsoft knows that breaking into mobile computing is its top priority right now, and it is likely willing to devote whatever resources it takes to make sure it does not fail. Surface is an example of this. Microsoft does not want a repeat of what happened with android tablets and the poor reception they received. I have been a Lumia user since April after previously using an ipad and android phone. I would not consider going back to android or ios at this point. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Slowly, consumers will adopt windows phone, and perceptions will change. Time is not on Nokia's side with its current expense structure. Microsoft however will not allow this endeavor to fail and will, if necessary, support the partnership with as much money as it takes, and for as many years as it will take. Nokia needs to show however that is can contain its costs and run a business on its own without Microsoft swooping in to save or acquire it; thus, the restructuring, layoffs, facility closures and overall stream of bad news continues. I'd estimate 3 years to 10% windows phone market share and 5 years to 20%. After that, it’s hard to predict. Nokia will be the one to drive this. Other OEMs will then follow. Until then, Nokia longs like myself can only sit back and let the naysayers and haters have their say.
    13 Jul 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Good analysis lydonis
    13 Jul 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • that sounds correct, so the question is when willbe the darkest hour? With my 28,000 annual pay and 3 kids and no income wife, i have no chance to get in now but woulnt want to anyway. im hoping it hits ground just in time for tax season. lol 8months to go, keep going south nok... PURE unBiased...
    14 Jul 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Picked up shares @ €1.45 on Friday, missed the low spot but I'll see where the experiment lies in Q2 2013.
    14 Jul 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • I just bought some Oct $1.50 puts. I think the impending WP8 launch will hurt WP7 sales while everyone waits in a holding pattern. The latest market share numbers do not point a pretty picture for WP either. Not like Symbian is doing well to make up for it. WP8 looks promising. They said the same about WP7. I tried it for a few weeks but it was half baked.
    14 Jul 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • No room for a 3rd ecosystem? So who's going away,Apple or Android? What a moron. Microsoft has the most successful ecosystem on the planet. Does SAP integrate with Apple or Android? Oracle?EMC? It's time to line people who propagate false and misleading information. In front of the fire squad. My entire work life has centered around Microsoft and it's vast ecosystem of integrated software products that is well beyond the scope of a thousand versions of solitaire.
    15 Jul 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Apparently Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, lives in a hole and has no idea what a ecosystem is. In my walk of life I have met a lot of people who have become victim of the so called "Peter Principle" - employees tend to rise to their level of incompetence and Pierre is just another example.
    16 Jul 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
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