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Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu is more bearish than ever on Nokia (NOK -1.9%), slashing his PT to...
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Friday, July 13, 2012, 12:30 PM ETBernstein's Pierre Ferragu is more bearish than ever on Nokia (NOK -1.9%), slashing his PT to $1.56 from $2.63 and forecasting a $0.38/share loss for 2012. He thinks more disappointing news could accompany Nokia's Q2 report, due Thursday, and that feature phone demand is evaporating as Android phones get cheaper. As for Windows Phone? Ferragu asserts it has "insignificant traction," and that there's no room for a "third ecosystem." (yesterday)
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This news story has 17 comments:
MSFT is showing signs of developing quite a robust one and this guy is completely oblivious to what's really occurring. I guess he is claiming you can't have more than 1 1/4 ecosystems. Hell Samsung is doing it with their 1/4 of a one and I am being generous at that. They have a good product and can produce it cheap. If that is the ingredient for a successful product, what makes him think others can't as well.
This is the most slanted comment I have seen so far and as we all know they are out there in droves.
This is the same guy who has recently upgraded RIMM. Spending too much time at the Kool-Aid fountain basically sums it up for this numskull.
The recent report that there are only a few hundred thousand Lumia's in the U.S. isn't helping things but the liquidation value has put a floor on the shares.
I'm of the mind that the unbiased analyst is rare animal indeed.
I look at them more as a catalyst for discussion which is where I derive any value.
Even though most commenters are also biased, they typically don't try to hide it, or if they do it's so obvious as to not matter. It's is the rationale of the longs and shorts which provide the best insight, for me anyways.
No room for a third ecosystem comment is short sighted. Microsoft made its name designing operating systems, and it's amazing how much people discount the possibility that Microsoft could succeed designing a mobile operating system. Microsoft knows that breaking into mobile computing is its top priority right now, and it is likely willing to devote whatever resources it takes to make sure it does not fail. Surface is an example of this. Microsoft does not want a repeat of what happened with android tablets and the poor reception they received. I have been a Lumia user since April after previously using an ipad and android phone. I would not consider going back to android or ios at this point. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Slowly, consumers will adopt windows phone, and perceptions will change. Time is not on Nokia's side with its current expense structure. Microsoft however will not allow this endeavor to fail and will, if necessary, support the partnership with as much money as it takes, and for as many years as it will take. Nokia needs to show however that is can contain its costs and run a business on its own without Microsoft swooping in to save or acquire it; thus, the restructuring, layoffs, facility closures and overall stream of bad news continues. I'd estimate 3 years to 10% windows phone market share and 5 years to 20%. After that, it’s hard to predict. Nokia will be the one to drive this. Other OEMs will then follow. Until then, Nokia longs like myself can only sit back and let the naysayers and haters have their say.