More from the Netflix (NFLX) Q2: expects Q3 EPS of -$0.10 to $0.14 vs. $0.11. Guides lower for...

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Andrew Shapiro Comments (1695)
 
Why should guidance be lowered 'due to Olympics'? Its not like they just scheduled this every 4 year event that was contracted to Netflix UK market 10yrs ago.
24 Jul 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like

Jason Aycock Comments (85)
 
What they say specifically:

"For Q3 quarter-to-date, our domestic net additions are very nearly the same as Q3 2010 over the comparable partial period. In that quarter two years ago, we finished with 1.8 million domestic net additions. However, in the middle of that quarter, we launched Netflix on the iPhone to great reception, and we don’t have an equivalent launch this quarter. Moreover, this quarter the Olympics are likely to have a negative impact on Netflix viewing and sign-ups. So, our Q3 guidance is 1 million to 1.8 million domestic net adds. If we finish Q3 in the high end of that range, we would remain on track for 7 million domestic net additions for the year; otherwise it would be challenging to achieve that goal by year end. In either case, we are generating impressive growth this year in our most developed market."
24 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like

Andrew Shapiro Comments (1695)
 
They are "very nearly" running at 2010 rate for the first THREE weeks of July. Then we had a great new distribution expansion in 2010, which we don't have in 2012. No kidding? There are no items in 2012 with anything close to the growth prospects that Netflix enjoyed in 2010. Thus valuation doesn't deserve a multiple anywhere close to 2010 either.

Here's a guide down: "If we finish Q3 in the high end of that range, we would remain on track for 7 million domestic net additions for the year; 'otherwise it would be challenging to achieve that goal' by year end." [internal quotes added for emphasis]
24 Jul 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like

Joe Razorback Comments (271)
 
Way to "F" your shareholders with that kinda projection. Revise estimates when all hell breaks loose in the next 2 months over Europe. No one will care then. Jeez. Called this one WRONG!
24 Jul 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like

andrewmoyer Comments (13)
 
That little comment by Hastings without disclosure of the negatives the company is facing was most likely done purposefully to offset what they knew was coming today. This stock is sadly going to drop back to the $60s if not lower within 30 days no doubt.
24 Jul 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like

ConservativeOutperformer Comments (401)
 
NFLX was such an easy short when it spiked back up around $120 earlier this year..... Deteriorating fundamentals, elevated market levels, lower growth and compressing earnings. I used to think some of the easiest money was going long undervalued success stories. I'm starting to learn that accounting frauds and unreasonable valuations are not necessarily better on a risk-adjusted basis, but the odds are so heavily stacked against some of these companies there is lots of money to be made with just a small speculative position....

FB puts right after the lockup period are looking really juicy, although going out even longer will probably end up making plenty of money as well. Growth is guaranteed to come in substantially over the next couple quarters.

Good luck!
25 Jul 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like

andrewmoyer Comments (13)
 
I agree and did the same thing at the 120 range. Sold out around the low 60 area and shorted again after this silly spike up to the 80s. It sure paid off!
25 Jul 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like