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Initial Jobless Claims: 353K vs. 380K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K).
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Thursday, July 26, 2012, 8:30 AM ETInitial Jobless Claims: 353K vs. 380K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K).
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If they were eliminated the risk reward ratio would suddenly become feasable for scores of economic endeavors that are currently unprofitable. If such a policy objective were put in place, inside of 18 months GDP would be at 8% to 9% and nonfarm payrolls would be north of 450k per month with U3 on its way to 4%. People would start looking for houses, real estate values would firm up, nonperformings on bank balance sheets would become performing or liquidated, bank capital would strenghten, and lending would begin again.
We are no where near a recovery in the jobs market or the housing market for that matter. (real unempllyment is at like 30% or more, w/ a declining labor force each and every year) Yea so what the economy has stalled and stablized, for the moment..thanks to TARP and ben bernake for kicking the can down the road another decade.
Jobs, foreclosures, are both worse this year and last yea.. Have we stablized the economy since 08? yes of course.
If you said 15% real unemployment I wouldn't question that. I wouldn't believe it, but it's at least reasonable. I live in a city in California with a population over 310,000 with an official unemployment rate of 11.9%. I see unemployed every day but it is nowhere near 30%.
"In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000."
However, 1% growth is not going to move the needle on unemployment in any event.
E
We can't even find jobs for all (only half) the new people entering the workforce. That just means in 5 years there will be an additional 4.2 million people not in the workforce - regardless of whether they are getting unemployment benefits.
This is not to say that you might get a little worried when you see month after month of weekly of claims at 450k or that you might feel comfortable with month after month of weekly claims at 300k or lower, but what it does mean is that you would look at these numbers combined with other stats to get an overall feel of the direction of the economy.
The overall picture these stats give right now on a combined basis is one of malaise. Thus if you were a politician that promised stimulus would jumpstart the economy, and 3 1/2 years later you only have a malaise, then the logical conclusion is that the jumpstart didn't work. If the argument is that jumpstarts produce malaise and malaise is better than collapse, then we need to start looking for solutions that produce vibrant growth as opposed to collapse or malaise. I'll take vibrant growth anyday over malaise or collapse.
this indicator is interesting for three reasons -
1. it is sensitive and leading - when things look to be getting bad - as in a credit contraction - before most other indicators have changed - businesses will start to fire - when that happens it spike up - lok at late 2008
2. it is not sentiment based - unlike these various surveys it is a hard number - that's good
3. it is real time - it is an economic pulse - the week to week varies up and down so that is hard to look at but the 4 week ave. is a good number. Right now this pulse is regular and strong.
E
Though the pulse is strong in a paralyzed person, that doesn't mean being paralyzed should be the new normal for a "healthy" person. Especially when the argument is made, that the paralyzed person should be thankful because it could be alot worse. True, being dead is worse, but you still don't want to be paralyzed.
I don't know and haven't been able to quickly find how the measure is determined.
If, in fact, there is a shift away from certain kinds of jobs to out-sourcing or technology, then there may be a structural pent-up demand that will never be able to be resolved. Logically thinking, there may be a low-wage earner, two - income family with one earner out of work or underemployed that has "pent-up" demand but they will never be able to engage in any economic activity that will be measurable vs. that demand?
Bbro....what am I missing?
Exactly what do you mean?
Second consider a transaction where I am willing to work for $1/hr, but the law says I have to be paid $10/hr. Granted, I would take the higher wage, but the employer cannot afford $10/hr. Thus the employer would voluntarily pay $1 and I would voluntarily work for $1, but the law sets a fixed costs that the employer does not have the technology to overcome. Thus the employer does the work, and I go without the job. Both of our standards of living have been reduced, even though we would have VOLUNTARILY engaged in a transaction.
Gov can be granted force by the populace, thus gov can regulate involuntary transactions. Gov cannot be granted special market knowledge by the populace and voluntary transactions make a market. Therefore gov can regulate involuntary transactions, but it cannot regulate voluntary transactions. It has no special technological knowledge about production to offset the additional fixed costs it imposes based on political sentiment.
Once upon a time there was a tavern
Where we used to raise a glass or two.
Remember how we laughed away the hours
And dreamed of all the great things we would do.
Those were the days my friend.
We thought they'd never end.
We'd sing and dance forever and a day.
We had much “fuller” employment.
The jobs all seemed heaven sent.
For we were young and sure to have our way.
Companies are at peak employment and are draining every last joule of energy from employees while wages stay flat. This economy is MAXED out for the time being. If you think the economy is re-accelerating you must have been asleep during the first few weeks of earnings season where RECORD numbers of companies are missing their top line.